TSLA showing cracks? - Page 240 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Everyone expected a run up to earnings and then a blowout earnings, nobody expected it to be moved up + citron flipflop. Give them credit well done. Now they get 300 before earnings and 325+ after, as opposed to 270 run up and 300+ earnings, well played elon.

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10-23-2018 , 05:16 PM

#5977

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,669

Not sure im buying the Earnings beat, im not hedging at all

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10-23-2018 , 05:48 PM

#5978

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

it may not be a bottom-line beat, but they will put enough lipstick on the non-GAAP pig to make it look good. It will pump.

But it will also be a great time to get short before the fundraise at awful terms comes in and crushes it.

Look at the netflix, similar circumstances - they needed a raise: pumped hard on earnings, then gave it all back and got awful terms on the bond sale. Netflix is a hall of fame business compared to tesla, the street will punish elon hard on the financing terms and he will take it because he has no choice.

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10-23-2018 , 06:20 PM

#5979

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

I just want to know what employees are left to put together the earnings reports. Maybe Elon did them in paint?

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10-23-2018 , 07:31 PM

#5980

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,669

It definitely annoys me that my biggest fear is fraud at this point as the SEC has more or less proven themselves relatively limp wristed. On a big balance sheet like Tesla’s you can hide fraud for a long time by hanging debits on the balance sheet.

Quote

10-24-2018 , 08:53 AM

#5981

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

I don't see how the earnings call can be positive. For a while people have been saying a fudged # beat/profitability, but I've seen several mainstream news articles saying the same thing. I think it's expected?

I'm going to add puts today. I'll keep something in the tank in case it does go higher though.

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10-24-2018 , 09:37 AM

#5982

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

Maybe wait til tomorrow on the puts.

It seems pretty clear elon told some people they are moving up on good earnings. Citron, etc. Has been straight up since then. Will pop after earnings on short covering/joe public fomo, then give up those gains as reality hits over the next few days/weeks.

Look at the netflix chart, should be pretty similar.

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10-24-2018 , 11:05 AM

#5983

f-l-y

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 61

pops on earnings, drops on guidance?

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10-24-2018 , 11:37 AM

#5984

BullDyke

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 276

What puts are looking most attractive now?

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10-24-2018 , 12:14 PM

#5985

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

I'd wait for after earnings and vol to drop out. Big moves are priced in.

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10-24-2018 , 12:38 PM

#5986

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

Quote:

Originally Posted by f-l-y

pops on earnings, drops on guidance?

Pops on earnings and the rosiest fake guidance you've ever seen. Then comes news of the awful terms on the "refinancing" and down it goes.

Sometime near end of day tomorrow will be a great time to get in short or with puts.

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10-24-2018 , 03:54 PM

#5987

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

same strat as always. sell vol. sell the rally

in a perfect world it pops up to 315-320 and sells off but anything inside the expected move works

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10-24-2018 , 04:17 PM

#5988

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

As expected, lipstick on the pig, here we go.

Bad luck for elon that the market tanked today, could have been $350. This will prob top out at $325.

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10-24-2018 , 04:34 PM

#5989

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

420 here we come

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10-24-2018 , 04:34 PM

#5990

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 943

Quote

10-24-2018 , 04:44 PM

#5991

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Tesla Expects Gross Margin For Model 3 To Remain Stable In Q4, Says Gross Margin For Model S And X Will Likely Decline Slightly

This seems impossible. How do you sustain the same margins while losing $3000 FSD + going to $45K cars from $62K cars? (the US high end demand is now mostly exhausted).

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10-24-2018 , 04:57 PM

#5992

f-l-y

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 61

Only 20% of the original 455k model 3 reservations have cancelled. Still a very healthy order book it seems

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10-24-2018 , 05:04 PM

#5993

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

Massive short squeeze tomorrow, hopefully can get a short in around $350. I expected pump numbers but even I am amazed at how much they crushed it. I guess they just didn't pay anyone in Q3 to make it look pretty. Q4 will be a mess.

Quote

10-24-2018 , 05:14 PM

#5994

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,669

Definitely good results

Just one question, how does one massively increase sales/deliveries and SGA go down?

That looks sketch to me and ive never once stated their numbers look sketchy, dont say the layoff because a huge sales burst like that still costs $$$$$

Likely not changing position at all, expected this to be a good Q selling 2 years if demand in 1 q

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10-24-2018 , 05:24 PM

#5995

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,669

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Phenomenal numbers. Will be listening with interest to the CC. The $63K high end M3s plus cutting all expenses have given them >20% margins and a nice profit, which isn't that surprising. This is an incredible statement though:

This seems impossible. How do you sustain the same margins while losing $3000 FSD + going to $45K cars from $62K cars? (the US high end demand is now mostly exhausted).

Ya, also q4 deliveries will exceed q3 deliveries. Basically sayjng they are going to be able to sell the same super expensive M3 versions at the q3 volume. If they do then ill admit im wrong, but there is literally 0% chance that happens.

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10-24-2018 , 05:25 PM

#5996

btc

Challah Atcha

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 2,576

QA - They have none.

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10-24-2018 , 05:31 PM

#5997

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

On any other day that Consumer Reports downgrade would crush the stock 10%. But today it was relatively flat while the markets tanked, after a massive up day yesterday.

You don't think Citron got a leak? and everyone else who bought yesterday? People definitely knew, and tesla gets a nice pump PLUS the expected earnings pump. 2 for the price of 1.

I expect elon to be on his best behavior on the CC, he needs to make the pig look good to lock in the "refinancing" soon.

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10-24-2018 , 05:32 PM

#5998

synth_floyd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

I can't wait to buy a Tesla in 2 or 3 years once they have all their production, quality and inventory issues sorted out.

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10-24-2018 , 05:35 PM

#5999

parttimepro

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,281

Does anybody see an actual 10Q? I just see their letter.
They did file an 8-K today, saying "On October 24, 2018, Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2018 by posting its Third Quarter 2018 Update letter on its website."

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10-24-2018 , 05:39 PM

#6000

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by parttimepro

No 10-Q yet. That is the Tesla specialty.
They make earnings and CC on Wednesday on purpose so that they file the 10-Q at 11:00PM Friday for release on Monday morning. It has been this way for the past several quarters.

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