Elon Musk is subconsciously a genius at PR. Nobody else talks about Ford / GM or any of the other boring car brands.

They spend 0$? on advertising?

The irony is this is a valuable talent on its own

Isn't this true only the second time around? Maybe Musk needs to get canned once to learn.

Tesla could have been a successful niche EV company without Musk in charge. Of course, it would never achieved this kind of valuation and fame.

Did the world collapse yet?

Do people realize that Tesla is only selling the M3 in the US and Canada? When people talk about demand collapsing, do they read what they write before sending or just don't give a **** anymore?

Someone posted a website with all the Tesla inventory (i.e. available cars) a while back with the possibility to filter, etc. I am too dumb to search this thread and find the post. I think it was syndr0me, but I might be wrong. Any help much appreciated.

https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/


Musk tweeted FSD is now "off menu" because it was confusing customers.


I smell a lie

A good summary of Tesla's obvious accounting fraud. There's a reason the entire accounting staff has quit:

https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/stat...12374593359872

The thread goes into how SolarCity was going down the same way, which is why Musk thrust it on his shareholders with lies (bankruptcy and fraud charges were inevitable after they had to restate earnings had SCTY not been bailed out by Tesla shareholders).

There is some stuff coming out about how mechanics pulled from service centers to help with burst week are being billed to RD


I almost wonder of deepak is incompetent or complicit, honestly not sure.

So now Elon wants to put in a dog-safety mode into the cars.

https://www.engadget.com/2018/10/20/...og-mode-plans/

I bet that every time he agrees to do something like this he shifts resources from something at Tesla that actually needs working on and gets people to do work on one of these niche features that most people don't care about.

https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/stat...35038133280768

TSLA reports in a couple weeks. Will they rally on the report? Seems like a lot of people think they will beat but a lot of people also seem to know it's not legitimate.

The cash number will surprise i think, but without fraud it should be obvious they will never be profitable

The internal accounting software is a giant red flag imo.

One of two things are true:

- Musk is such an incredible loser/micromanager/control freak who wants to vertically integrate everything to the extent that he even spends a large amount of programming resources developing in-house accounting software rather than using the perfectly capable off-the-shelf accounting software

- Musk developed in-house accounting software to help with accounting fraud.

Given that Musk has a long history of deliberate fraud (SCTY deliberately inflated production costs by over 100% to defraud Oregon, for example; they also had to restate due to other accounting fraud, and got sued for plenty of other frauds for which the Tesla bailout saved them from further scrutiny/bankruptcy), I'd say the latter is more likely.

This is also an excellent overview of the Tesla accounting tricks to boost cash this quarter. Stuff like taking payment and not delivering the car, selling it someone else for their cash instead. What kind of "about to become permanently profitable" company pulls tricks like this?

Agree on an internally developed ERP system is a red flag


Its really weird, ive always assumed it was just a module or something that was internally developed, like inventory or something, that plugged into the main GL, but i have no idea and haven't seen anything to support that idea

Tooth, sometimes you seem pretty savvy and straight, and then sometimes you take a crap on Musk in ways that make you seem like you have motives and an axe. It makes your solid analysis less believable. Did he run over your dog in an electric vehicle or something?

ETA: I'm not trying to be an ass. Just, sometimes it seems more vindictive and less investment analysis.

I've worked for companies that developed their own internal systems, when every employee was wondering why they didn't buy something off the rack. ... seems like a common, simple mistake to make.

Bolded is not the Musk way. Must reinvent the wheel only better, faster, more energy efficient.

Musk already admitted the company won't be profitable in the 3rd quarter, via internal email. Why are we entertaining the possibility of a "beat" this quarter? In this case I think beat = profitable since consensus i basically break-even.

Musk has been built up as a hero and genius. He's very obviously a liar and a fraud, and apart from strong skills in that area, not very bright and downright horrible with necessary "boring" detail. That analysis is the most important investment analysis there is, as nearly everything we know about Tesla depends on trust in Musk's accounting and projections. Take the self driving nonsense from 2016. Musk = liar and fraud led you to the correct analysis. Credulous heltok, who believed Musk rather than look at the rock solid analysis laid for him in detail on how bad autopilot was and how unlikely to improve given that, made an ass of himself despite the advantage of working in the industry. The same for many things.

A more recent example is the $420 tweet. If you put P(Musk is a liar and fraud) as > 90%, you come out with the right probabilities, as I did, that this is a very easy short at $370. If you put P(Musk is a liar and fraud) at <10%, you come out with very very wrong probabilities and lose a lot of money, as heltok, ChipRick, and the whole gaggle of bullish clowns in this thread did. That miscalculation cost them more money than any other single analysis on Tesla.

There are a few questions as to whether Tesla survives, and they all revolve around Musk's psychology.

- Is he a competent or incompetent leader and manager? Does his personality allow Tesla to recover from his extreme incompetence as a leader, or will he double and triple and pedo-dog-dare-burn-the-shorts-with-fraud-tweets right to the bottom?

- To what extent would he sanction fraud and creative accounting? Are his gross margins to be believed? How accurate is the picture created by the numbers in this upcoming quarter?

- Does the fraud run deep enough for the eventual downfall of Tesla via criminal and civil charges and liability?

All of these things depend on Musk's psychology as he basically runs this thing as a micromanaged fiefdom, with a powerless lackey board. I consider his psychology a settled question at this point given the mountains of evidence we have now, but others don't, because they're stupid.
Hey, if you think my thesis is wrong, then say so. They're all just theses. I'm not an accountant.

Ok, someone please tell me what the ETA means? Def not an arrival time

edited to add?

Elite thread analysis?

Has to be this

Edit to add .... man, it's like another language in here.