A q3 pop on lower cash burn because they collectrd for a lot of undelivered cars, i dont see how q4 and q1 arent a total disaster without raising capital

Wouldn't that then be an exit opportunity?

Just saw this, Tesla receives waiver for private issuances only. No public equity issuing in foreseeable future unless im reading it wrong. This is HUGE news likey going unnoticed to many.

https://twitter.com/BSA19741/status/...631260162?s=19

Beliefs are not about believing. Tesla offers:

-Self identity/worth as someone who is ahead of the curve/smarter/cooler

-Status within preferred social reference groups

(regardless of what happens with Tesla, they built the first American car someone could proudly pull up to the country club in since ~1976 Coupe DeVille)

(the model 3 rules the staff parking lot at any HS)

-Conversational utility with other believers

-Dream of share price growth continuing, few people have the nerve to short successfully

-Most people watching CNBC *want* losing trades, this is why ARK gets on there with a 4k price target. Why their crypto trades get the direction wrong 95+% of the time. If you just ask people if they want to be a successful trader the answer the mind spits out is 'Yes'. Then when life asks them a hundred questions as it does (do I want to research 10ks, do I want to build my own spreadsheet models, do I want to challenge my beliefs, can I control my attention when the trade is moving against me) the revealed preferences are a bit different.

Ya im just saying you could argue there is an opportunity to trade long here at some point, but the window is closing


Im not bithering hedging and i have a fairly significant short position, still know there is a likely a few more bumps.


The china lease joke reeked of desperation

They were never going to do a public offering anyway, will be a relatively "quiet" large convertible debt deal to make payments in January and March. Elon gets to save face on twitter compared to any kind of equity sale and they get the cash they desperately need.

There will definitely be a pump on Q3, but then it becomes a complete disaster even if the new cash can hold them for 6 more months.

Elon can call it a refinancing instead of a capital raise.

He will sell it that way, but typically refinancing is a LOWER interest rate than the existing debt - he's going to pay a much higher rate this time around. Bulls will not care though.

Worth a read if you are bearish

https://twitter.com/BSA19741/status/...885919242?s=19

Is yahoo terrible at everything?

https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/sta...679674370?s=19

Yahoo! Finance and Yahoo fantasy sports are good.

Yahoo massively overpaid for Broadcast.com and gave us Mark Cuban, and they passed on buying Google for $1 Billion back in the day.

Pretty much all you need to know.

Yahoo fantasy is the nut low of fantasy


I feel like we are opposites on a lot of things

My memory was 5b but not sure of that


I used to assume cuban was cool because of the pic of him holding the nba trophy at the urinal


The more i read about him tho it sounds like he isnt alm that sharp, he did hire bob tho so that was probably a smart play.

Tesla releases new 45k mid range Model 3 that they present as costing 33.2k after 7.5 credit and “6 years of gas savings” calculated by tesla

This reeks of desperation

High end demand is now confirmed dead. They're down to selling just below breakeven cars. If they can't raise (seemingly confirmed today, although the SEC could change their mind), the end isn't very far off. Perhaps they limp into 2019 with a few tricks.

The halving of the tax credit at the end of the year + a billion due + ASP coming down further and further below breakeven = they die without finding 5+ billion in new unsecured funding.

It almost seems too obvious at this point

Trying to think how this can appear bullish to anyone


Spurious help me out here

They secured an avenue to gain private funding just like Elon was saying all along

If Khashoggi was a bear it could explain some things.

FSD option is now gone from Tesla's website.
Customers noticing that FSD was removed from their purchase order, but no refund:



This has DoJ intervention written all over it.

Why do you say that specifically?

Most bulls I've run into irl are at work and typically are technicians and trades people with electrical backgrounds. Usually sci-fi/Neil drgrasse tyson fan boys. A guy once told me when investing in Tesla your investing in ideas not a business.

Stock price, bro.

This is a good explanation: