Im not an expert at this but ill mention a couple issues.


In short, i think he probably could but it would be extremely expensive and difficult and would complicate any future raises. Also how much can he lend without losing control of spacex?


1) i doubt he could do this without first paying off his personal loans, thats 1b


2) the debt would likely be last in line with no interest payments at a high implied rate. So it would crush gaap income to no benefit to musk. The related party nature would also create a lot of audit and accounting issues so the transaction fees would be astronomical. Determining a fmv for interest would be fun.


3) unless tesla becomes wildly successful (cash flow wise) future raises would become complicated. This would definitely be a last gasp.


4) How much can musk really lend? He has a 5b WC hole, to get out of that he probably loses control of spacex and that is before he can even fund anything that the dumb tesla valuation is based on.

And it would be extremely stupid

That sounds right up Musk's alley.

In for 8, out for 27.

Still think the potential good/bad news ratio is completely skewed. It bounced to 300 twice, good fake numbers might create a third. I don't know what it will take to anchor the price anywhere near reality at this point, apart from an actual re-structuring.

1. SpaceX was valued at $27.5B at its last round of funding 6 months ago. Elon holds about 54%, so that's $15B equity.

2. He doesn't have to sell it, he just has to offer it as collateral for a loan. Depending on the size of the loan and the covenants (where it stands in line vs. his other debts), the interest on that could be quite manageable, less than 5%.

3. His investment into Tesla could be either a conventional loan or convertible. Determining the structure of that investment is what investment bankers do for a living. Elon controls the board, so he can structure it however he wants, short of provoking a shareholder lawsuit. If he's coming to rescue the company from bankruptcy, shareholders don't have a lot of argument against anything he does that avoids bankruptcy.

4. Maybe it is a last gasp. But if Tesla has another year-plus of funding, I sure don't want to buy short-dated OOTM puts.

This is a dude who took his liquidity from PayPal and was figuratively sleeping on a friend's couch short term after having invested immediately in new ventures.

Obv that is exaggerated but the dude lives for his companies so it isn't unreasonable to think he'll continue going all the way on them.

At this point the biggest issue in this whole thing seems more likely to be that he is straight up going crazy and is on a path of destruction. I think Musk being a wildcard and settings things on fire should be a huge concern.

You have to consider he was just seconds from stepping down for 2 years due to an SEC fraud plea and this doesn't even seem close to the rock bottom he is capable of.

Also I did have to laugh at the current wsb meme

Suppliers must be getting extra jitters.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Com...k-s-bombshells

If you believe anything written in Vance's biography at this point (that set up the legend of Elon Musk), you're being foolish imo. The guy is a proven pathological liar and a fraud, who likes to structure grand narratives of him as the hero taking bold risks and making smart choices and bringing things back from the brink. The reality is that his very rich daddy set him up in life and paid for his first companies and helped bail out his failures, after which he was a solid money-getter and partnered with smart people who did all the work while he took the credit. One thing Musk does well is convince people to give him money. Holmes had the same talent, as did Madoff. In Musk's case he's likeable and believable to technocucks, I think it's the aw-shucks mental disorganization where he can't speak or order his thoughts properly but holds forth on techno buzzwords and Hope for Humanity with common-man zeal.
I completely disagree. Apart from the story being fictional, he (like the entire accounting staff who quit) knows what deep **** Tesla is in and that a few billion aren't going to make much difference. Is he really going to give up his control of SpaceX to make Tesla last a few months longer? He needs to inject > $4 billion to make it to mid next year, more if there's a run on the bank by suppliers
I think you're not seeing the picture here. The big picture is that Tesla is mega****ed, which is causing Elon to be trapped and extremely stressed and lashing out. He's built a web of lies and accounting fraud and fraudulent promises which he can't keep, and the bill is coming due and he's lashing out like a panicked, stressed pathological liar/narcissist about to come undone. Many frauds end up like that, increasingly desperate and erratic as the walls close in.

It's NOT the case that Musk is overworked and stressed because of it. His plane travel alone shows that he tells massive lies about how hard he works. He has substantial holidays and recreation time and has straight up lied about that on national television. This "sleepiong on the factory floor", working 120 hours a week is pure bull**** to cast this grandiose narcissist as the hero trying to save Tesla, and play to the gallery of some of the most gullible people ever born, like heltok and ChipRick, who believe in Elon and his fix-anything GigaGenius with all their heart and soul.

You think this "leak" - which came from Elon or those close to him because it talks about how he avoided it because of "principle" - is actually real? There was earlier reporting that the SEC offered a deal with Musk barred from being an officer of any public company. That's far more credible.

I think the theory he cant step down and have someone financially literate have a look at the books is also a credible theory


The last reported number of M3 reservations was 420k


Who wants to bet the over 400k number was true at that time? I think that was jan 18

The text from deepak in the SEC letter makes me think he is a subservient moron

I also expect all out fraud on q3 financials since it is the last chance before the full audit at year end.


I will likely buy some otm calls for nov 2nd and cover eod the day after EC.

Still holding my 2019 and 2020 puts tho

CEO ban is just saving face. Musk would still be in charge even if he had no official title at all.

How low would the stock have to go to be an acquisition target?

Book value is ~$23/share.

I'm seeing Nov. 9 calls @ $265 for $28.10. Is that price crazy or do markets just know that the fix is in? TSLA is a great short term buy?

Call (and put) prices are usually mostly based on historical volatility. The market doesn't know anything.

Who would buy it?

ELON MUSK AND SEC REACH SETTLEMENT ON FRAUD CHARGES; SETTLEMENT WILL REQUIRE MUSK TO STEP DOWN AS CHAIRMAN FOR 3 YRS: CNBC

-- itshappening.gif

Musk remains CEO

Wow what a joke

Altho as a long term put holder im not unhappy he is ceo

Sigh... back to $300....

...until the DoJ steps in.

Someone finally convinced him to take the damn deal. LOL he is as much of a narcissist as Trump. If there was a liberal version of Trump I think it would look a lot like Musk.