What an amazing day yesterday was


Within an hour we had the SEC suing musk and every news outlet using the phrase devils triangle

i don't think he can settle this. if he does all those shareholder lawsuits become slam dunks and he and/or the company will be on the hook for hundreds of millions.
just drag it out for as long as he can hoping for some miracle turnaround of the company.

There's speculation whether the "settlement" was actually real or not, or just another leak by Elon. If it was real:

$TSLA Musk settlement would have barred him from Chairman for 2 years - CNBC. Would require the company to add 2 new independent directors

https://twitter.com/FDRInvestments/s...47100598472704

Sounds like it was going to be a weak slap on the wrist too.

I think he knew if he stepped down for 2 years Tesla would not survive the 2 years - so why not fight it. The next 6 months will make or break the company and he wants to be there.

Man, that TMC forum is a strange place. Thought I'd pop over there to get their take on the news. I wasn't disappointed:

- Let's sue the SEC
- We should all pool our money together to help take Tesla private
- The SEC is part of the short conspiracy
- etc.

Lots of them are going to go broke. This dude for example:

hmmm...this would be a fearful moment for many people. I've got about $50k cash (and a lot of TSLA) in my SEP IRA account. I think I'll try and time the major dip tomorrow and go all in. I'm guessing whatever the low tomorrow is, is about as low as we will see.

Any other stock closes down 20%+ on this news.

Bagholderquotes is always gold on days like these.

A fool and their money...

That's not even a tesla fanboy thing, that's just a dumb thing.

Entertaining.

When the big $ starts dumping it will be <$200. They cannot just sell one million shares, unwinding sizeable positions in something like this takes awhile.

Honestly? This could have gone a lot worse for Tesla. The 'going private' tweet was blatantly illegal, and people have gone to jail for that sort of thing. Musk could have gotten away with a slap on the wrist. Now he'll fight the SEC for a long time (his lawyers can draw this out for years) and eventually settle for a slightly larger slap on the wrist.

SEC action was the major short-term bear catalyst. I think we'll see $300 again.

Short the rumor, cover on the news.

You are aware there's a parallel criminal investigation, right? This was referred to the DOJ very early and there is clear criminal conduct.

Are you also aware that the evidence contained in the SEC charges makes the class action lawsuits against Musk and Tesla for billions in losses near airtight?

You are aware that they're seeking a lifetime bar from public companies for Musk?

You are aware that these charges and investigations and just as importantly the powerful evidence contained therein that Musk is provably a liar and fraud (or else balls-out insane) make raising from a secondary or obtaining debt far more difficult than it would otherwise be? And that they need to raise or get debt to not go bankrupt in a few months as their working capital is -2.4 billion and there are billions more due?

SEC/DOJ wasn't even part of the bear case.

What about Musk getting capital from his spacex shares?

I'm still interested in the longer post about why that's not likely, but I think it seems possible in theory.

The shorts must be going crazy right now. Isn't a lot of the SpaceX money from google? I doubt they'd want Musk using money for anything but SpaceX.

Now that the SEC has filed civil fraud charges, the bigger problem is if the DoJ decides to follow suit with criminal fraud charges and starts freezing assets and seizing documents.

All these things can be true, and most have been true for months, and the stock price can still go up. Earlier in this thread, I called the move from $270 to $300 on no news. Could very easily happen again.

re: bankruptcy, what about Musk tapping his SpaceX equity?

Musk may be dumb, but is he stupid? Why would he swap equity in a semi-successful SpaceX for equity/debt in a failing Tesla? Surely he knows better than anyone that Tesla is doomed, despite having to put on a brave face for the public.

he could either sell equity in spacex and inject that cash into tesla, but i doubt he's gonna sell equity to get some ****ty junior debt in tesla. i think he likes his money too much.

or he could borrow against his spacex shares. the thing is, he already has borrowed a big amount against his tsla shares. so he already has debt he needs to service.
tesla would need atleast 5b$ short term to get back to positive working capital and start investing in growth again - i think for that he would need to basically post all his spacex equity as collateral.
5b$ on a 7-8% coupon, which would be generous, gets us to a yearly payment of 350-400m$. how does he service that? none of his ventures is profitable or pays a dividend.

he knows more about tesla than anybody else on the planet, ask yourself why he isn't doing any of that.

You'd think that. A rational person probably wouldn't do that. But Musk did add billions to Tesla's debt so he could buy up failing Solar City before it went bankrupt. Elon is a narcissist and will do whatever he has to in order to avoid public failure.

Beat me to it. This.

SCOOP: @elonmusk unhappy w lawyers sought more aggressive atty in SEC fight; Chris Clark used ties to Bay-area legal community & successful defense of @mcuban to snare Musk; Musk rejected “very fair” SEC settlement: Time limited CEO ban for 2 years-sources @FoxBusiness more now

https://twitter.com/CGasparino/statu...03811640283137

Now they're saying it was a CEO-ban for 2 years? If true, no wonder he rolled the dice, he knew Tesla was done absolutely if he wasn't in charge and able to pull off all these stunts to weave through its cash crunch.

The SEC was trying to save TSLA by ousting elon.

^That would seem to be the case.

Is this really bullish for nio?

TS crushed this thread

And I like Musk but he is nerd Trump, finally bit off more than he can chew