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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

09-22-2018 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The following quit Tesla today, leaving behind bonus packages and shares.

Global head of supply chain management
VP of supply chain management
Canada sales chief
Northeast America sales chief

This is what the end looks like. These people know everything they need to know about Tesla's business and how well they're ramping (or not). Just like the accounting & finance guys know what's in the books - and all have left, including the last CAO in one month, leaving huge amounts of industry-beating options, stock and bonuses on the table.
With 2 minutes of searching, I can only find references to the VP leaving (Liam O'Connor).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-22-2018 , 03:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden
Where are you seeing this news?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCowley
With 2 minutes of searching, I can only find references to the VP leaving (Liam O'Connor).
Hasn't hit an mainstream news. Twitter guys pick it up based on LinkedIn/Tesla job postings/info from the new companies.

For example, here's the reference for Gary Gaines, Northeast US sales general manager, who left Tesla for Lyft:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/gary-gaines-871a2475



Couldn't be bothered looking up the other 2.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-22-2018 , 03:07 PM
Fair, good find.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-22-2018 , 05:54 PM
09-22-2018 , 08:16 PM
09-23-2018 , 07:32 PM
There's a tesla store/showroom type thing where I live. In a super busy area of town. Every time I've been there it's been pretty busy.

Went by a few days ago during a very busy time for the area and there was maybe one person in the store (wasn't sure if they worked there). The apple store next door had a line just to get in the place.

n=1 and anecdotal evidence (the best kind). But fwiw demand does not seem unlimited there.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-23-2018 , 08:05 PM
total demand seems to be ok-ish (people still think they will get a 27,5k$ car), but one of their biggest problems right now is high end model 3 demand. they will run out of backlog for the 50k$+ models next quarter. they still can't produce at a sustainable rate of 5000/week and for the lower end models to be profitable it would need to be even higher.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 07:14 AM
TSLA puts are so expensive. Puts with a strike at 50% of a current price expiring in Jan 2020 are above 20$ or above 7% of current stock price.
For comparison FB puts with similar expiration date and strike are 0.4% of the stock price and Intel's 0.5%. Even puts for something like Zynga are 1.75% of the stock price (same parameters) while AMD even after crazy run and without anything tangible to show in the reports yet sits at 3.4%.

Seeing that alone would make me sell everything at 300$ and be done with that stock as apparently the market thinks there is very significant probability of Tesla crashing 50%+ in little more than a year. I am a noob but I just can't comprehend how you can be optimistic about holding TSLA being a good long term bet right now.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 09:18 AM
It's not just the puts. Look at the credit default swaps, they show a high chance of default - and those protect bonds, which are paid before equity in any bankruptcy/liquidation. So if it's that expensive to buy insurance on Tesla bonds - and the market is clearly worried about bondholders getting paid, what would be left for equity holders?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 11:53 AM
09-24-2018 , 12:37 PM
does anyone feel like we'll tread water until Q3 report, which will be blowout (but unsustainable) numbers that will fuel a crazy retail-inspired pump to 325ish...then slowly there will be more reporting on the "unsustainable" part and it will slow drop to 250ish before the january bond payment fiasco which could be the start of the end?

Seems like the whole market knows this, but here we are at 300.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretzel
I agree that long term the company is in huge trouble.

But I can't shake the feeling that there is one more big announcement coming soon that will shoot the stock price up. Something like "We sold 60k model 3 this quarter with a huge gross margin and the last week we made 6000 in 1 week plus 2k model x/s. We are rolling in money!!!"

Then a few week later it will turn out that the statement was somewhere between an exaggeration and an outright lie and then the stock will crash down again. I kept my jan 2020 200 put but otherwise covered all my short yesterday and am waiting for this big exaggerated news to get back in and short again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb
does anyone feel like we'll tread water until Q3 report, which will be blowout (but unsustainable) numbers that will fuel a crazy retail-inspired pump to 325ish...then slowly there will be more reporting on the "unsustainable" part and it will slow drop to 250ish before the january bond payment fiasco which could be the start of the end?

Seems like the whole market knows this, but here we are at 300.
Seems like we are thinking the same way. I went ahead and shorted a moderate amount of shares today. If it goes like we think then I will short some more when it rises.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb
does anyone feel like we'll tread water until Q3 report, which will be blowout (but unsustainable) numbers that will fuel a crazy retail-inspired pump to 325ish...then slowly there will be more reporting on the "unsustainable" part and it will slow drop to 250ish before the january bond payment fiasco which could be the start of the end?

Seems like the whole market knows this, but here we are at 300.
This is my thesis, yes.

re: bankruptcy, collapse, etc., what do folks think about Elon's stake in Space X? He has roughly $15B in equity there. What's stopping him from borrowing against that and lending to TSLA?
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09-24-2018 , 04:13 PM
Lol, elon tweeted car carriers are causing delivery issues


17.6m cars sold a year, but this 5k week of teslas has overwhelmed the delivery infrastructure
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09-24-2018 , 04:26 PM
Self driving electric car-carriers! Will be revolutionary....
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 04:41 PM
Headlines will 100% be about a delivery burst week run rate
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 05:50 PM
This is hilarious:



Apart from being a sick burn about Musk's latest lie-tweet non sequitur answer to a customer complaint:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loyal customer being brutally used to juice Q3 deposit numbers
Leased a Model S for two years in 2016. Have a day one reservation for a M3 AWD. Placed order at end of June. Still don't have M3 AWD. Lease ends in one week! New customers getting M3 AWD before me? No help from Tesla. I helped keep the lights on at Tesla! Please help?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elon Musk
Apologies, we’re upgrading our logistics system, but running into an extreme shortage of car carrier trailers. Started building our own car carriers this weekend to alleviate load.
the before and after starkly shows the difference between a competent car manufacturer maintaining an orderly, well organized operation, and a crazy chaotic disorganized assclown (Tesla took over this factory in 2010).


Zoom in and spot which factory is run by the person whose daddy didn't love him:


Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-24-2018 at 05:58 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 05:59 PM
i seem to remember that map being posted before and the reason for the ****show was due to musk having a falling out with some train company so the train company YOLOdestroyed their tracks
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
i seem to remember that map being posted before and the reason for the ****show was due to musk having a falling out with some train company so the train company YOLOdestroyed their tracks
I saw that on twitter (apparently it was UP?) And didnt believe it, seemed too stupid even for musk
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09-24-2018 , 07:51 PM
Tesla did not disclose the Wells notice it received in 2016, which was issued in response to the proposed SCTY merger, but the SEC allowed its S-4 registration for the merger to proceed anyway. The SEC done goofed.

TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-24-2018 , 08:39 PM
Like I said a long time ago, it's standard for SEC to ask for information and almost every large firm is under some kind of ongoing monitoring. Major companies even have dedicated offices for various outside parties such as SEC investigators and auditors.

TSLA, however, is run by amateurs who are learning how to "Corporate America" on the fly and they almost certainly don't have a good working relationship with the powers that may be.
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09-25-2018 , 02:35 AM
Does Musk really think anyone believes that they just started building ****ing car carriers out of the blue last week to help deliver cars now? It's too idiotic of a lie to even spend time debunking. Just how dumb does he think the rest of the world is?

I know the SEC/DOJ have a fully plate of Tesla already, but isn't this latest tweet yet another example of actionable fraud by the CEO? Let's ignore the minor fact that car carriers are literally sitting around idle all over the country. The idea of a shortage of these things is absurd (although there may be a shortage of people willing to rent them out without an up-front deposit). If they really did "start building their own carriers this weekend" it should be easy to point to the machine shop where they're being fabricated, the mechanical designs for the vehicles, the safety certifications that would be required, the licensing forms that must surely be filed well in advance of putting a vehicle of this size on the road, etc., etc.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-25-2018 , 03:22 AM
I'm really looking for a reason not to load even more into this trade. The main threats (high demand, debt or equity raise) only continue to recede.

At this point the only thing holding me back is keeping room for some fated pump on the last rabbit, offering an even better entry.
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09-25-2018 , 10:27 AM
Building car carriers = Model S fitted with a towbar dragging Model 3 to the showroom.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-25-2018 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro
This is my thesis, yes.

re: bankruptcy, collapse, etc., what do folks think about Elon's stake in Space X? He has roughly $15B in equity there. What's stopping him from borrowing against that and lending to TSLA?
Curious to see what people think of this. If Elon can pull a few bil from his Space X stake, doesn't that kill a large part of the bear thesis?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
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