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Old 09-19-2018, 04:33 PM   #5401
wikibg
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I think the bitcoin comparison is spot on. It blows my mind that some funds are still holding.
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Old 09-19-2018, 04:53 PM   #5402
Trolly McTrollson
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bucktotal View Post
Lithium is a scarce resource? It's the 3rd element on periodic table. I'll have to look that one up...
There’s currently a shortage of the second element.
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Old 09-19-2018, 05:35 PM   #5403
Pretzel
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I agree that long term the company is in huge trouble.

But I can't shake the feeling that there is one more big announcement coming soon that will shoot the stock price up. Something like "We sold 60k model 3 this quarter with a huge gross margin and the last week we made 6000 in 1 week plus 2k model x/s. We are rolling in money!!!"

Then a few week later it will turn out that the statement was somewhere between an exaggeration and an outright lie and then the stock will crash down again. I kept my jan 2020 200 put but otherwise covered all my short yesterday and am waiting for this big exaggerated news to get back in and short again.
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Old 09-19-2018, 06:18 PM   #5404
protonewb
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

300 seems like a great entry to short, sure there will be fake news and a pump, but how high can it really go? 325 maaaybe? not 350, that was dreamland $420 talk, can't see it, people won't be fooled like that again.

Load up now and check back end of january, a short at $300 should look very good.
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Old Yesterday, 11:31 AM   #5405
protonewb
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...89463686934530

Get yer popcorn for this Q3 report.
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Old Yesterday, 12:42 PM   #5406
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb View Post
Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...89463686934530

Get yer popcorn for this Q3 report.
Some of his accounting stuff is wrong but the concepts are right. Like tesla doesnt cap RD, RD is opex, when capping RD its not moving cogs to capex.


Requiring payment before delivery (which is nuts) is definitely going to be gamed
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Old Yesterday, 07:32 PM   #5407
ToothSayer
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The following quit Tesla today, leaving behind bonus packages and shares.

Global head of supply chain management
VP of supply chain management
Canada sales chief
Northeast America sales chief

This is what the end looks like. These people know everything they need to know about Tesla's business and how well they're ramping (or not). Just like the accounting & finance guys know what's in the books - and all have left, including the last CAO in one month, leaving huge amounts of industry-beating options, stock and bonuses on the table.
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Old Yesterday, 08:02 PM   #5408
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
The following quit Tesla today, leaving behind bonus packages and shares.

Global head of supply chain management
VP of supply chain management
Canada sales chief
Northeast America sales chief

This is what the end looks like. These people know everything they need to know about Tesla's business and how well they're ramping (or not). Just like the accounting & finance guys know what's in the books - and all have left, including the last CAO in one month, leaving huge amounts of industry-beating options, stock and bonuses on the table.
In short, expect a 5% rally tomorrow
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Old Yesterday, 08:20 PM   #5409
JKC
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb View Post
Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...89463686934530

Get yer popcorn for this Q3 report.
Would this suggest they'll report fake good revenue for Q3 then be basically done the next Q?
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Old Yesterday, 08:23 PM   #5410
Kazuya
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Okay between CAO and everything else, this is pretty ridiculous and I'd like to gamble some on it. Too much knowledge being thrown down in this thread to not have a go at it. First time venturing into puts as this isn't my expertise but nonetheless want to try them out.

I'm thinking Jan 2020 100 puts is an easier play that isn't hard to fk up?

My thought process is I want them farther out so if Tesla pulls shenanigans on Q3 there's still time for them to unravel into 2019. My one worry is Musk gets pushed aside in the next month or so, and competent management come in but whatever. I was thinking possibly of buying Jan 2019 200s and also Jan 2020 100s but would rather just be farther OTM. Should I buy @ 50 or is 100 good, or what are the bears thoughts on these puts -- anything you would change about it?

Thanks
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Old Yesterday, 08:31 PM   #5411
JKC
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazuya View Post
Okay between CAO and everything else, this is pretty ridiculous and I'd like to gamble some on it. Too much knowledge being thrown down in this thread to not have a go at it. First time venturing into puts as this isn't my expertise but nonetheless want to try them out.

I'm thinking Jan 2020 100 puts is an easier play that isn't hard to fk up?

My thought process is I want them farther out so if Tesla pulls shenanigans on Q3 there's still time for them to unravel into 2019. My one worry is Musk gets pushed aside in the next month or so, and competent management come in but whatever. I was thinking possibly of buying Jan 2019 200s and also Jan 2020 100s but would rather just be farther OTM. Should I buy @ 50 or is 100 good, or what are the bears thoughts on these puts -- anything you would change about it?

Thanks
If they get bought out at $101, your puts expire worthless.
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Old Yesterday, 09:52 PM   #5412
somigosaden
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
The following quit Tesla today, leaving behind bonus packages and shares.

Global head of supply chain management
VP of supply chain management
Canada sales chief
Northeast America sales chief
Where are you seeing this news?
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Old Yesterday, 10:46 PM   #5413
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazuya View Post
Okay between CAO and everything else, this is pretty ridiculous and I'd like to gamble some on it. Too much knowledge being thrown down in this thread to not have a go at it. First time venturing into puts as this isn't my expertise but nonetheless want to try them out.

I'm thinking Jan 2020 100 puts is an easier play that isn't hard to fk up?

My thought process is I want them farther out so if Tesla pulls shenanigans on Q3 there's still time for them to unravel into 2019. My one worry is Musk gets pushed aside in the next month or so, and competent management come in but whatever. I was thinking possibly of buying Jan 2019 200s and also Jan 2020 100s but would rather just be farther OTM. Should I buy @ 50 or is 100 good, or what are the bears thoughts on these puts -- anything you would change about it?

Thanks
Fwiw my biggest bet is jan 20 @100 puts
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Old Today, 06:05 AM   #5414
TheMVP
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

17 months to drop 66% for breakeven?

Prob depends more on the bull market correcting than anything specific to TSLA IMO.
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