In short, expect a 5% rally tomorrow

Would this suggest they'll report fake good revenue for Q3 then be basically done the next Q?

Okay between CAO and everything else, this is pretty ridiculous and I'd like to gamble some on it. Too much knowledge being thrown down in this thread to not have a go at it. First time venturing into puts as this isn't my expertise but nonetheless want to try them out.

I'm thinking Jan 2020 100 puts is an easier play that isn't hard to fk up?

My thought process is I want them farther out so if Tesla pulls shenanigans on Q3 there's still time for them to unravel into 2019. My one worry is Musk gets pushed aside in the next month or so, and competent management come in but whatever. I was thinking possibly of buying Jan 2019 200s and also Jan 2020 100s but would rather just be farther OTM. Should I buy @ 50 or is 100 good, or what are the bears thoughts on these puts -- anything you would change about it?

Thanks

If they get bought out at $101, your puts expire worthless.

Where are you seeing this news?

Fwiw my biggest bet is jan 20 @100 puts

17 months to drop 66% for breakeven?

Prob depends more on the bull market correcting than anything specific to TSLA IMO.

Musk getting pushed aside would be a good thing for the health of the company. He's the source of their troubles, though it never had to be that way. If he would just get his head out of his ass, he'd be a fantastic cog in the machine he's built. But asking a pathological narcissist to get their head out of their ass is basically impossible. The board, bought by Musk as they are, would have to treat him like a child against his will.

If a big portion of TSLA shareholders are fanboys who are never selling no matter what... how does the stock go down besides bankruptcy?

Institutions are 79% of the float. Maybe you're overestimating their influence.

Definitely was. For some reason I thought it was closer to 60/40

Can I ask what's your reasoning behind the date/amount?

Fwiw I'm trying to think of how Tesla plays out the next 16 months or so in probabilities. I expect to lose the majority of the time on any puts I buy, I just want to buy the right puts to capture what likely is the most value *given* what we know today. I'd also obviously like to capture the tail end distribution of any dumpster fire scenarios. WRT Jan 2020 -- is that too far out or what do the bears here think for date/size?

Cheers

At the time i made it (prob 8 months ago now) Tesla was actually over 350 and they werd nearly a 20×1 payout


My theory being a few fold


1) cant raise outright BK

2) limited demand, shares drop, musk gets margin called, once down to 100 the raise they would need would be so dilutive it would crater stock

3) plenty of time for the misleading use of gross margin metrics tesla uses would catch up to them and the market would realize they will never be profitable


4) market correction/hedge vs 401k



At 16x1 or whatever it wasemed like a steal, it stil seems like a good bet to me


Tesla will BK it is just a matter of when imo

For anyone following along, @insideevs has gone full tesla pump mode the last 3 weeks or so.


Very weird, before they seemed like a news source for EVs, they have 180d and are even worse than electrek now

interesting thread on why their ZEV credits, which provided some much needed cash until about 2 quarters ago, might basically be worthless going forward.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-boost-q3-cash

Hardly any magic... but I agree 100% that this is what's going on, i.e. "delivery hell" is bulls***, they are just so desperate for cash, they are screwing their customers. Not sure if this is legal, but for me it's essentially fraud.

A decent amount of established twitter accounts have claimed delays in delivery dates after PIF

This is pretty clever. "Delivery hell" is pure bull**** at 6% of the volume of a single car company in the country with a massive on-demand trucking base.

In fact this is so obvious I'm not sure why it didn't occur to me. 5K customers on the hook without delivery and then selling their car on is $250 million, enough to pay suppliers for another month and prevent bankruptcy a bit longer or juice the books for the EoQ

It's pretty brazen, even if you think like a conman.

You can show that you're CF+ by booking the sale and then not delivering the goods! 100% gross margin with 0 COGS! And you get to keep the car in inventory to borrow against the ABL. Double bonus!

Like I predicted, they will demonstrate profitability and being CF+ in Q3 come hell or high water.

these end-of-quarter rushes are basically company suicide.
last quarter we had:
-flying in a production line from germany on chartered planes
-the famous tent
-having to rework over 80% of their cars

this quarter they are ****ing over their most loyal customers.

killing the company to prop up the stock price.

If he can't raise, why is he so concerned with the short term stock price to the detriment of the long term?

My guess is because of the Jan 2019 convertibles and because he used his shares as collateral for loans. If the share price drops a lot, he is f*****.

Ummmm so yea where is Grimes?

everyone is saying "grimes rip". Surely this won't be good for Elon's mental health.

Simplest Grimes/Azeila explanation:

They were both close somehow to Musk during the 420 events. Various agencies are looking closely at this time period. The girls lawyers/minders explained they are now involved in higher stakes and told them to clam up. AB seems to have claimed that Grimes was telling anyone who would listen what Musk was up to, etc.