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Old 09-18-2018, 06:12 PM   #5376
somigosaden
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot View Post
What? It says right there that it has the ability to meet only 73% of the countries light vehicle needs. Even if that's talking about unutilized power the grid would still have to be augmented by 37%. That's an absolutely enormous investment. Were talking trillions of dollars.
You're getting so defensive that you're making no effort to understand or think critically about this. The discussion is the cost of owning an EV and the cost of having to expand energy infrastructure to accommodate the increased market share of EVs in the coming decades. Your own link says that if 73% of consumer vehicles—a HUGE number that you don't seem to think EVs will constitute for at least 30 years—were suddenly EVs, our plants would be able to handle the increased electricity demand TODAY. No costly expansion needed. You act as though the fact that 100% of vehicles can't be replaced with EVs today without expanding power plants proves your point that EVs won't be preferred to ICE vehicles thirty years from now.

With capacity for 73% of consumer cars to be supported by our current grid, and the efficiency improvements in renewables over the coming decades, and the increase in ride sharing, and the gains from smart-grid advances, it's probable that we won't need any significant powerplant buildout to accommodate the replacement of ICE vehicles with EVs. We're 73% of the way there and we haven't even been trying. Imagine what it'll look like in the timeframe that you and TS are talking about EVs becoming the norm in.

Quote:
For what? To burn methane instead of gasoline?
As you know, methane is less than a third of energy production, and losing share to renewables. But yes, trading gas for methane would reduce costs and have huge reductions in pollution, both at the source, and by moving the source miles away from where people are breathing.

Quote:
Not only that, even though burning methane in a gas turbine or boiler is less dirty than gasoline you'd have to burn way more of it to get the same energy output since there's less energy in a methane molecule than a gasoline one. So it may pollute even more than gasoline.
I already addressed that it was indicative of a big lack of understanding for you to bring this point up that more CH4 is required than octane for the same Watt output. What anyone cares about is the cost per MWh, or from an environmental standpoint, the CO2, PM, SO2, and NOx per MWh. Nobody cares about the number of molecules in their soup or cupcake—the calories are what is relevant. CH4 gives cleaner energy... per unit of energy. If you respond telling me, "Yes, but you have to use more of it," that will be the end of this conversation.

The main reason I chimed in was to point out that you don't work in the energy sector, a claim that you've been coy about not addressing. I don't work in energy either, although I have to deal with people who do on a regular basis, and it was immediately obvious to me that this is not your professional arena.
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:17 PM   #5377
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot View Post
Lol that's like saying the sky is blue. Methane is CH4 so of course per unit it's going to create the least amount of CO2. It only has one carbon atom in its structure.
Writing a bunch of high school level chemistry babble doesn't cover your completely false and ignorant statement.

Quote:
You going to address the increase in cost of scarce primary resources with increase in demand and the repercussions on downstream economic incentives or just continue to bull**** your way through life like you bull**** your way through 2+2 threads?
You don't rise to the level of making coherent observations, so there's little point in continuing. For comparison, Spurious does...

WTF does "scarce primary resources with increase in demand" mean? Power plants and lines aren't scarce. Right now, electricity demand grows every year far more than electric cars will impact it. By your stupid reasoning, the price of electricity must be soaring by now. In China, it must be $1,000,000 per kWh by your dopey reasoning; they've been building plants and transmission/delivery at breakneck speed, far faster than EVs ever will, quadrupling their energy production and delivery in 11 years. Demand bro! Sunk costs! Economics says the price must soar (just ignore the supply side and revenue/capex to fund it).

Quote:
You've yet to address a single challenge to your assertions with anything but baseless rhetoric.
All "challenges" have been met. Nothing you say is sane. Sorry bro. Try to get to Spurious level of commentary at least.

The revenue shifting from gasoline to electricity and the forward capex to build that out is what funds it without increasing prices...like every other industry. The shift is sufficiently slow that there's no demand shock. just like the 1-6%/year electricity demand increase in every country without increasing prices. The notion that other electricity consumers will subsidize EVs is false. The notion that EVs won't be cheaper to build than ICE within 5 years is false. I don't know what's left to argue. I hate greenies and green power and all that wasteful bull****, but EVs are a clear area where the technology is superior on every level - cost, waste, energy efficiency, quality of product, etc, etc.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-18-2018 at 06:22 PM.
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:41 PM   #5378
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Today we learn:

- DoJ has a criminal probe on Tesla.
- SEC referred Tesla to the DoJ to open the criminal probe
- Tesla admits that the probe has been ongoing for a month
- No 8-k filed in the interim regarding the probe
- Bankers urge Tesla to recruit managers to share operational duties with Elon
- Tesla's BOD supposedly consulting with Alvarez & Marsal, the same group that helped Lehman through its Chapter 11

For us, these events represent a historical moment in the annals of corporate governance and an epic embarrassment to the capital markets.

For Elon Musk and Tesla's Board of Directors, it was Tuesday.

As ASAP correctly notes with respect to the events revealed today that would normally crater any other company 20%+, Tesla is back to about where it was when the CAO resigned and the market has yawned it off, so it is a big nothing burger.

Stock price uber alles. Stock price, bro! This is fine. Please BTFD.
Looks like I ended the day too early!

We also have:

Goldman Sachs and Silverlake hit with SEC subpoenas:
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:45 PM   #5379
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

So this is a serious investigation then. They're not screwing around. The SEC would also have referred to DOJ for criminal prosecution, they considered it a serious enough example of stock fraud to warrant immediate criminal investigation long before their own investigation was complete.

Odds Tesla's DOJ PR brushoff is true? 0%?
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:57 PM   #5380
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

i don't think their statement is much more than the standard 'we're being investigated and are cooperating fully'-jibberjabber every company puts out.

i'd want to be in that room when he first talks to his attorney about the tweet.

Last edited by BooLoo; 09-18-2018 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:07 PM   #5381
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Im not reading DoDN posts


I can book a win there right?
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:36 PM   #5382
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
You're getting so defensive that you're making no effort to understand or think critically about this. The discussion is the cost of owning an EV and the cost of having to expand energy infrastructure to accommodate the increased market share of EVs in the coming decades. Your own link says that if 73% of consumer vehicles—a HUGE number that you don't seem to think EVs will constitute for at least 30 years—were suddenly EVs, our plants would be able to handle the increased electricity demand TODAY. No costly expansion needed. You act as though the fact that 100% of vehicles can't be replaced with EVs today without expanding power plants proves your point that EVs won't be preferred to ICE vehicles thirty years from now.

With capacity for 73% of consumer cars to be supported by our current grid, and the efficiency improvements in renewables over the coming decades, and the increase in ride sharing, and the gains from smart-grid advances, it's probable that we won't need any significant powerplant buildout to accommodate the replacement of ICE vehicles with EVs. We're 73% of the way there and we haven't even been trying. Imagine what it'll look like in the timeframe that you and TS are talking about EVs becoming the norm in.



As you know, methane is less than a third of energy production, and losing share to renewables. But yes, trading gas for methane would reduce costs and have huge reductions in pollution, both at the source, and by moving the source miles away from where people are breathing.



I already addressed that it was indicative of a big lack of understanding for you to bring this point up that more CH4 is required than octane for the same Watt output. What anyone cares about is the cost per MWh, or from an environmental standpoint, the CO2, PM, SO2, and NOx per MWh. Nobody cares about the number of molecules in their soup or cupcake—the calories are what is relevant. CH4 gives cleaner energy... per unit of energy. If you respond telling me, "Yes, but you have to use more of it," that will be the end of this conversation.

The main reason I chimed in was to point out that you don't work in the energy sector, a claim that you've been coy about not addressing. I don't work in energy either, although I have to deal with people who do on a regular basis, and it was immediately obvious to me that this is not your professional arena.
I mean read the article yourself. It agrees with me in entirety.

1. Shifting gasoline consumption to NG and coal consumption.
2. INCREASES total SOx and NOx emissions but moves them away from cities (so sweet I guess.) But decreases CO and volatile emissions
3. Increases power demand by many factors which without smart useage will drastically increase the cost per kwh
4. Notes the increased transmission and distribution requirements as well as plant maintenance outages

So yes, it could technically supply 73% of light vehicles (avg 33 miles per day---also lol) with electricity but it would cost an absolute fortune without base expansion, smart useage meters etc etc etc

In other words everything I said was correct.
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:40 PM   #5383
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Writing a bunch of high school level chemistry babble doesn't cover your completely false and ignorant statement.


You don't rise to the level of making coherent observations, so there's little point in continuing. For comparison, Spurious does...

WTF does "scarce primary resources with increase in demand" mean? Power plants and lines aren't scarce. Right now, electricity demand grows every year far more than electric cars will impact it. By your stupid reasoning, the price of electricity must be soaring by now. In China, it must be $1,000,000 per kWh by your dopey reasoning; they've been building plants and transmission/delivery at breakneck speed, far faster than EVs ever will, quadrupling their energy production and delivery in 11 years. Demand bro! Sunk costs! Economics says the price must soar (just ignore the supply side and revenue/capex to fund it).


All "challenges" have been met. Nothing you say is sane. Sorry bro. Try to get to Spurious level of commentary at least.

The revenue shifting from gasoline to electricity and the forward capex to build that out is what funds it without increasing prices...like every other industry. The shift is sufficiently slow that there's no demand shock. just like the 1-6%/year electricity demand increase in every country without increasing prices. The notion that other electricity consumers will subsidize EVs is false. The notion that EVs won't be cheaper to build than ICE within 5 years is false. I don't know what's left to argue. I hate greenies and green power and all that wasteful bull****, but EVs are a clear area where the technology is superior on every level - cost, waste, energy efficiency, quality of product, etc, etc.
Increased power demand = increased use of scarce resource (NG/Coal) = Increased cost of scarce resource=increased cost of power = Increased cost of ev ownership

This is a certain fact. It's not debatable. Explain, empirically, how the cost of evs will go DOWN with increased adoption, when the thing that allows mass adoption (NG/Coal) goes up in price with increasing scarcity.

I mean literally the only way for your argument to be correct is if NG/Coal becomes unlimited
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:52 PM   #5384
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

What matters is the marginal cost of mining given that there are hundreds of years of coal, thousands to millions of years of Uranium (depending on technology), and 50+ years of gas. Again, see any commodity ever. Lithium is another great example - scarce resource, yet the cost of battery packs has plummeted 80% in a decade.

Oil prices have come down as demand has soared because new mining opened up (shale). How is that price drop possible given that it's a scarce resource, using your reasoning? Oil is scarcer than gas.

There isn't an argument in any of what you wrote to respond to.
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:01 PM   #5385
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Lithium is a scarce resource? It's the 3rd element on periodic table. I'll have to look that one up...
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:12 PM   #5386
Do0rDoNot
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
What matters is the marginal cost of mining given that there are hundreds of years of coal, thousands to millions of years of Uranium (depending on technology), and 50+ years of gas. Again, see any commodity ever. Lithium is another great example - scarce resource, yet the cost of battery packs has plummeted 80% in a decade.

Oil prices have come down as demand has soared because new mining opened up (shale). How is that price drop possible given that it's a scarce resource, using your reasoning? Oil is scarcer than gas.

There isn't an argument in any of what you wrote to respond to.
Oil prices are determined by controlled supply by OPEC and other cartels. You know this. Ironically, electricity price is largely controlled by cartels too, though not in every jurisdiction, mainly because the cost of capital expenditure far outweighs access to competitive market sectors (ie it's more expensive to build new transmission lines to compete in another companies territory than it's worth).

But ya I'll take your evasion and retreat as admission of defeat. Adios muchacho!
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:13 PM   #5387
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Replace oil with any commodity and the point is the same.
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Lithium is a scarce resource? It's the 3rd element on periodic table. I'll have to look that one up...
Lithium extractable at reasonable prices is scarcer than oil extractable at reasonable prices. I mean, even gold isn't scarce if you include sea water.

$771 Trillion Worth Of Gold Lies Hidden In The Ocean
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:23 PM   #5388
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

being a scientist, i prefer primary resources... but i'm sincerely interested, so i'll do some reading, including your links.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...21344916301653
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:58 PM   #5389
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

hah, maybe like gold, we can get Li from seawater too. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b00032
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Old 09-18-2018, 09:44 PM   #5390
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Is there anyone else neutral that finds this polarization fascinating? So much emotional investment here...
It's comical how often you claim to have no side in the debate, when you are obviously biased. I'm amazed you think you are fooling anyone.

I was neutral until Musk smeared the cave hero. That was indefensible.
Selling sub standard cars, and blaming crash victims was low as well. He's a pretty disgusting guy. How can anyone be neutral, regarding a guy like that?
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Old 09-19-2018, 07:53 AM   #5391
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Claimed by Lutz yesterday:

Quote:
Lutz said Tesla is "hemorrhaging cash" and because of the federal investigation, the SEC will not let it make a capital raise.
If the above is true, do all the bulls agree that Tesla is soon bankrupt? Or do you really believe that Tesla can become profitable/cash flow positive enough to overcome its billions in debts after all the lies and missed projections and bogus claims and billions in losses?
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Old 09-19-2018, 09:54 AM   #5392
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Stratify View Post
It's comical how often you claim to have no side in the debate, when you are obviously biased. I'm amazed you think you are fooling anyone.

I was neutral until Musk smeared the cave hero. That was indefensible.
Selling sub standard cars, and blaming crash victims was low as well. He's a pretty disgusting guy. How can anyone be neutral, regarding a guy like that?
Fooling anyone? Lol get over yourself, this sort of insanity is why I'm neutral. It's not one or the other despite whatever your viewpoint is.
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:25 AM   #5393
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Bought Jan 2020 $150 puts.

I've got my pitchfork, where do I sign up for the witch hunt?
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:48 AM   #5394
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Anyone here have thoughts about NIO? tesla killer, copycat, or other
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Old 09-19-2018, 12:36 PM   #5395
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

tsla up 3% today. doj probe? buy the dip
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Old 09-19-2018, 01:10 PM   #5396
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

new record high for SP500, but yeah apparently people think the doj is a "nothingburger" - if it gets back to the 302 pre-news level that would be impressive.

Feels like people are buying deck chairs on the titanic though.
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Old 09-19-2018, 01:11 PM   #5397
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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tsla up 3% today. doj probe? buy the dip
It's hilarious. I've never seen this before. The DoJ must be stunned.
I bet the joke will be on me when TSLA pops up 10% on news of a BK filing.

Moodys may as well downgrade to junk; it'll probably only cause a 2% drop that will bounce back.
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Old 09-19-2018, 01:31 PM   #5398
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Let's see what the reddit fans are saying





nothing else bad will happen to tesla, confirmed
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Old 09-19-2018, 01:57 PM   #5399
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

https://twitter.com/cppinvest/status...93177258778626
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Old 09-19-2018, 03:48 PM   #5400
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Bought Sep 21 285 puts @8

Kind of gambling around here, trade idea is mostly based on the ratio of bad:good news being at least 7:1

-Production slowed even below 3k

-Big holders/analysts/clowns that were pure bull starting to temper

-Executives keep jumping

-Demand weakness

-More logistics issues

-Dead grimes/hookers/etc turnup
Got my random bad news and didn't cover. This trades like bitcoin right now, just when it seems it should keep diving and *this time* people will figure it out, it bounces.

Will try again since 300 still feels absurd.
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