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09-18-2018 , 07:40 PM

#5376

Do0rDoNot

adept

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 833

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Writing a bunch of high school level chemistry babble doesn't cover your completely false and ignorant statement.

You don't rise to the level of making coherent observations, so there's little point in continuing. For comparison, Spurious does...

WTF does "scarce primary resources with increase in demand" mean? Power plants and lines aren't scarce. Right now, electricity demand grows every year far more than electric cars will impact it. By your stupid reasoning, the price of electricity must be soaring by now. In China, it must be $1,000,000 per kWh by your dopey reasoning; they've been building plants and transmission/delivery at breakneck speed, far faster than EVs ever will, quadrupling their energy production and delivery in 11 years. Demand bro! Sunk costs! Economics says the price must soar (just ignore the supply side and revenue/capex to fund it).

All "challenges" have been met. Nothing you say is sane. Sorry bro. Try to get to Spurious level of commentary at least.

The revenue shifting from gasoline to electricity and the forward capex to build that out is what funds it without increasing prices...like every other industry. The shift is sufficiently slow that there's no demand shock. just like the 1-6%/year electricity demand increase in every country without increasing prices. The notion that other electricity consumers will subsidize EVs is false. The notion that EVs won't be cheaper to build than ICE within 5 years is false. I don't know what's left to argue. I hate greenies and green power and all that wasteful bull****, but EVs are a clear area where the technology is superior on every level - cost, waste, energy efficiency, quality of product, etc, etc.

Increased power demand = increased use of scarce resource (NG/Coal) = Increased cost of scarce resource=increased cost of power = Increased cost of ev ownership

This is a certain fact. It's not debatable. Explain, empirically, how the cost of evs will go DOWN with increased adoption, when the thing that allows mass adoption (NG/Coal) goes up in price with increasing scarcity.

I mean literally the only way for your argument to be correct is if NG/Coal becomes unlimited

Quote

09-18-2018 , 07:52 PM

#5377

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

What matters is the marginal cost of mining given that there are hundreds of years of coal, thousands to millions of years of Uranium (depending on technology), and 50+ years of gas. Again, see any commodity ever. Lithium is another great example - scarce resource, yet the cost of battery packs has plummeted 80% in a decade.

Oil prices have come down as demand has soared because new mining opened up (shale). How is that price drop possible given that it's a scarce resource, using your reasoning? Oil is scarcer than gas.

There isn't an argument in any of what you wrote to respond to.

Quote

09-18-2018 , 08:01 PM

#5378

bucktotal

old hand

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,667

Lithium is a scarce resource? It's the 3rd element on periodic table. I'll have to look that one up...

Quote

09-18-2018 , 08:12 PM

#5379

Do0rDoNot

adept

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 833

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Oil prices are determined by controlled supply by OPEC and other cartels. You know this. Ironically, electricity price is largely controlled by cartels too, though not in every jurisdiction, mainly because the cost of capital expenditure far outweighs access to competitive market sectors (ie it's more expensive to build new transmission lines to compete in another companies territory than it's worth).

But ya I'll take your evasion and retreat as admission of defeat. Adios muchacho!

Quote

09-18-2018 , 08:13 PM

#5380

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Replace oil with any commodity and the point is the same.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bucktotal

Lithium is a scarce resource? It's the 3rd element on periodic table. I'll have to look that one up...

Lithium extractable at reasonable prices is scarcer than oil extractable at reasonable prices. I mean, even gold isn't scarce if you include sea water.

$771 Trillion Worth Of Gold Lies Hidden In The Ocean

Quote

09-18-2018 , 08:23 PM

#5381

bucktotal

old hand

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,667

being a scientist, i prefer primary resources... but i'm sincerely interested, so i'll do some reading, including your links.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...21344916301653

Quote

09-18-2018 , 08:58 PM

#5382

bucktotal

old hand

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,667

hah, maybe like gold, we can get Li from seawater too. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b00032

Quote

09-18-2018 , 09:44 PM

#5383

Stratify

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 68

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Is there anyone else neutral that finds this polarization fascinating? So much emotional investment here...

It's comical how often you claim to have no side in the debate, when you are obviously biased. I'm amazed you think you are fooling anyone.

I was neutral until Musk smeared the cave hero. That was indefensible.
Selling sub standard cars, and blaming crash victims was low as well. He's a pretty disgusting guy. How can anyone be neutral, regarding a guy like that?

Quote

09-19-2018 , 07:53 AM

#5384

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Claimed by Lutz yesterday:

Quote:

Lutz said Tesla is "hemorrhaging cash" and because of the federal investigation, the SEC will not let it make a capital raise.

If the above is true, do all the bulls agree that Tesla is soon bankrupt? Or do you really believe that Tesla can become profitable/cash flow positive enough to overcome its billions in debts after all the lies and missed projections and bogus claims and billions in losses?

Quote

09-19-2018 , 09:54 AM

#5385

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stratify

Fooling anyone? Lol get over yourself, this sort of insanity is why I'm neutral. It's not one or the other despite whatever your viewpoint is.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 11:25 AM

#5386

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

Bought Jan 2020 $150 puts.

I've got my pitchfork, where do I sign up for the witch hunt?

Quote

09-19-2018 , 11:48 AM

#5387

ibavly

2010 PSOP Champion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 24,513

Anyone here have thoughts about NIO? tesla killer, copycat, or other

Quote

09-19-2018 , 12:36 PM

#5388

waffle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,728

tsla up 3% today. doj probe? buy the dip

Quote

09-19-2018 , 01:10 PM

#5389

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

new record high for SP500, but yeah apparently people think the doj is a "nothingburger" - if it gets back to the 302 pre-news level that would be impressive.

Feels like people are buying deck chairs on the titanic though.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 01:11 PM

#5390

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by waffle

tsla up 3% today. doj probe? buy the dip

It's hilarious. I've never seen this before. The DoJ must be stunned.
I bet the joke will be on me when TSLA pops up 10% on news of a BK filing.

Moodys may as well downgrade to junk; it'll probably only cause a 2% drop that will bounce back.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 01:31 PM

#5391

waffle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,728

Let's see what the reddit fans are saying

nothing else bad will happen to tesla, confirmed

Quote

09-19-2018 , 01:57 PM

#5392

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

https://twitter.com/cppinvest/status...93177258778626

Quote

09-19-2018 , 03:48 PM

#5393

case3

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 774

Quote:

Originally Posted by case3

Bought Sep 21 285 puts @8

Kind of gambling around here, trade idea is mostly based on the ratio of bad:good news being at least 7:1

-Production slowed even below 3k

-Big holders/analysts/clowns that were pure bull starting to temper

-Executives keep jumping

-Demand weakness

-More logistics issues

-Dead grimes/hookers/etc turnup

Got my random bad news and didn't cover. This trades like bitcoin right now, just when it seems it should keep diving and *this time* people will figure it out, it bounces.

Will try again since 300 still feels absurd.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 04:33 PM

#5394

wikibg

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 153

I think the bitcoin comparison is spot on. It blows my mind that some funds are still holding.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 04:53 PM

#5395

Trolly McTrollson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 37,858

Quote:

Originally Posted by bucktotal

Lithium is a scarce resource? It's the 3rd element on periodic table. I'll have to look that one up...

There’s currently a shortage of the second element.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 05:35 PM

#5396

Pretzel

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 290

I agree that long term the company is in huge trouble.

But I can't shake the feeling that there is one more big announcement coming soon that will shoot the stock price up. Something like "We sold 60k model 3 this quarter with a huge gross margin and the last week we made 6000 in 1 week plus 2k model x/s. We are rolling in money!!!"

Then a few week later it will turn out that the statement was somewhere between an exaggeration and an outright lie and then the stock will crash down again. I kept my jan 2020 200 put but otherwise covered all my short yesterday and am waiting for this big exaggerated news to get back in and short again.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 06:18 PM

#5397

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

300 seems like a great entry to short, sure there will be fake news and a pump, but how high can it really go? 325 maaaybe? not 350, that was dreamland $420 talk, can't see it, people won't be fooled like that again.

Load up now and check back end of january, a short at $300 should look very good.

Quote

09-20-2018 , 11:31 AM

#5398

protonewb

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 387

Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...89463686934530

Get yer popcorn for this Q3 report.

Quote

09-20-2018 , 12:42 PM

#5399

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by protonewb

Good thread: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/stat...89463686934530

Get yer popcorn for this Q3 report.

Some of his accounting stuff is wrong but the concepts are right. Like tesla doesnt cap RD, RD is opex, when capping RD its not moving cogs to capex.

Requiring payment before delivery (which is nuts) is definitely going to be gamed

Quote

09-20-2018 , 07:32 PM

#5400

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

The following quit Tesla today, leaving behind bonus packages and shares.

Global head of supply chain management
VP of supply chain management
Canada sales chief
Northeast America sales chief

This is what the end looks like. These people know everything they need to know about Tesla's business and how well they're ramping (or not). Just like the accounting & finance guys know what's in the books - and all have left, including the last CAO in one month, leaving huge amounts of industry-beating options, stock and bonuses on the table.

Quote

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