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Old 09-18-2018, 01:23 PM   #5351
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Is there anyone else neutral that finds this polarization fascinating? So much emotional investment here...
Def

I feel like i have learned a lot about the human psyche from Tesla. Everything about it is fascinating.
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:24 PM   #5352
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I don't think Do0rDoNot ever claimed to work in the energy sector. It seems extremely unlikely to me, given the content of his posts, that he works in energy. This statement underscores his ignorance of the state of energy production, both in the US and other developed countries:

Quote:
we will simply be burning the same (and likely more) amount of hydrocarbon to generate electricity needed to power all the evs. So not only is there no cost incentive, there's little environmental incentive as well.
Only 62% of US electricity comes from fossil fuels; only 30% comes from coal, while 31% comes from nat gas. The fact he acts as though coal and nat gas are not worth distinguishing also shows ignorance. Nat gas has half the CO2 emissions, and much better particulate, SO2 and NOx emission profiles. And saying that we'd have to burn a lot more methane to get the same amount of energy from coal seems like something no one with knowledge in this area would say—we care about cost per MWh. Nat gas is cheaper per MWh than coal.

Canada gets 60% of its electricity from hydro, about 9% from coal and less than 10% from other hydrocarbons.
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:25 PM   #5353
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
There's something wrong with your mind. You need to learn to read. Facts to get into your head before we continue:

- EVs require subsidization NOW but won't in 2022 when cost parity is reached with ICE (cost parity, not subsidized). The key cost component is the battery pack. That's come down from $1000/kWh to $200/kWh in a decade and dropping fast. In 2022 the cost of making the battery + electric motors, etc and putting it in a car becomes equal to the cost of all the extra ICE components. Then it gets increasingly cheaper until it's about 15% cheaper than an ICE to make. As to your "hundred years of optimization" comments, that's more than offset by the very large number of components needed for ICE, not needed for battery. I'm kindly explaining that for you since it's not intuitive to you for some reason.
And again you're leaving out the increased cost of electricity. Think about this for a sec. Roughly speaking, for 90% ev useage you need 90% ev coverage, right? That means charging stations. A LOT of them. Do you understand how much copper costs? Who's gonna foot the bill for literally millions of miles of electricity distribution infrastructure? Right now Teslas backers, investors, and taxpayers are paying for it. In the future, consumers will pay for it. That is a FACT. How much more methane will we need to burn to generate many factors more electricity than we use now? Guess what happens to the price of natural gas when that happens? It goes up. Who's going to pay for it? Again, consumers will.

Your decreased cost predictions are based on fundamentally flawed assumptions: the cost of electricity will remain the same, the supply of methane is unlimited and so its cost, etc.

Evs arent cheaper now, and the claim they will be cheaper in the future is dubious at best.

Quote:
- In your crazy mind, building electricity plants that cost "hundreds of millions" - actually billions (you sure you work in the industry?) - will increase electricity prices. That's not how it works, bro.
Yes it does. Because you are so superficially knowitall about absolutely every topic you engage upon, you're missing a lot, yet again. More electricity demand increases transmission requirement. Copper and insulated aluminum is expensive. That's why your transmission and distribution costs make up the biggest part of your power bill. Have a look at it if you dont believe me. More usage, more cost. Hundreds of thousands of miles of new transmission and distribution infrastructure will increase the cost of electricity for EVERYONE, not just ev users, and it will easily suck up any cost saved on higher unit efficiency.

Quote:
the superior profile of EV includes hydrocarbons-in-ground-to-motive-power efficiency for both. EVs are substantially superior without even counting stuff like EVs soaking up baseload waste. Thus your idiotic assertion that the same or more hydrocarbons will be used is...idiotic.
What the hell is baseload waste? Do you understand how electricity is generated and distributed?
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:31 PM   #5354
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

the Tesla polarization reminds me of the greater US political polarization - perhaps it's caused by social media + filter bubbles?
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:34 PM   #5355
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
I don't think Do0rDoNot ever claimed to work in the energy sector. It seems extremely unlikely to me, given the content of his posts, that he works in energy. This statement underscores his ignorance of the state of energy production, both in the US and other developed countries:



Only 62% of US electricity comes from fossil fuels; only 30% comes from coal, while 31% comes from nat gas. The fact he acts as though coal and nat gas are not worth distinguishing also shows ignorance. Nat gas has half the CO2 emissions, and much better particulate, SO2 and NOx emission profiles. And saying that we'd have to burn a lot more methane to get the same amount of energy from coal seems like something no one with knowledge in this area would say—we care about cost per MWh. Nat gas is cheaper per MWh than coal.
It's closer to 70% fossil fuels. https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/el...roduction.html

Only 17% is generated by renewable sources and 20%+ is nuclear.

I said nothing about coal, and I clearly distinguished between gasoline and methane.

Quote:
Canada gets 60% of its electricity from hydro, about 9% from coal and less than 10% from other hydrocarbons.
It gets roughly 22% from fossil fuels. Canada is a wide outlier due to their James bay hydroelectric project, which obviously isn't feasible most places in the world.
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:36 PM   #5356
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

How can you be neutral on tesla? It's either the greatest stock scam since Enron or the next Apple? No middle ground.
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:42 PM   #5357
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot View Post
And again you're leaving out the increased cost of electricity. Think about this for a sec. Roughly speaking, for 90% ev useage you need 90% ev coverage, right? That means charging stations. A LOT of them. Do you understand how much copper costs? Who's gonna foot the bill for literally millions of miles of electricity distribution infrastructure? Right now Teslas backers, investors, and taxpayers are paying for it. In the future, consumers will pay for it. That is a FACT. How much more methane will we need to burn to generate many factors more electricity than we use now? Guess what happens to the price of natural gas when that happens? It goes up. Who's going to pay for it? Again, consumers will.

Your decreased cost predictions are based on fundamentally flawed assumptions: the cost of electricity will remain the same, the supply of methane is unlimited and so its cost, etc.
You legitimately fail to understand how capital investment + competition works. It's extraordinary. Let me quote you below and then apply the same logic to oil

Quote:
Evs arent cheaper now, and the claim they will be cheaper in the future is dubious at best.
It's not dubious, it's a certainty. There is no one I know of who thinks EVs will be more expensive. It's a consequence of EVs being far simpler to build and the rapidly dropping cost of batteries ($1000/kWh to $200/kWh in a decade with no sign of abating).

Quote:
Yes it does. Because you are so superficially knowitall about absolutely every topic you engage upon, you're missing a lot, yet again. More electricity demand increases transmission requirement. Copper and insulated aluminum is expensive. That's why your transmission and distribution costs make up the biggest part of your power bill. Have a look at it if you dont believe me. More usage, more cost. Hundreds of thousands of miles of new transmission and distribution infrastructure will increase the cost of electricity for EVERYONE, not just ev users, and it will easily suck up any cost saved on higher unit efficiency.
No, you just have a brain block. It will cost hundreds of billions if not a trillion to build out the extra power supply capacity infrastructure for EVs. We agree there and you'd understand that I know that if you could read.

What you don't understand is best shown by demonstration. Your post, above, modified for oil in 2013 as shale took off:

Quote:
More oil demand increases pumping and transmission requirement. Pumps and ships and drill rigs and refineries are very expensive. That's why your pumping and shipping and refining costs make up the biggest part of your gas bill. Have a look at it if you dont believe me. More usage, more cost. Hundreds of billions of dollars of new rig and drilling investment to tap shale will increase the cost of oil for EVERYONE, not just car users, and it will easily suck up any cost saved on higher unit efficiency.
Using your logic, oil will get far more expensive as people have to build out supply - pipelines, refining, drilling capex in the hundreds of billions.

Car lithium batteries is an even better example, huge increasing demand for a lithium delivery pipeline competing with an existing demand (phones, laptops, etc) yet the price is dropping.

You understand where your mental block is, bro? You're failing at basic economics. The shift to 90% cars will happen a very long time after EV dominate the market. A car has a lifespan of > 10 years and are there are over a billion cars around. 40 million/year globally - which is the point at which the EV market is bigger than the gasoline market - can easily have baseload supply added in plenty of time...the extra incoming money at current market prices pays for all the costs as forward capex, exactly as it does for shale oil or lithium batteries (dropping rapidly in price) or any of 100 other things. The ramp is actually gentle enough that supply capacity forward-capexed can easily meet demand (the pie is getting larger and there are more mouths = same cost per unit of pie).

Quote:
What the hell is baseload waste? Do you understand how electricity is generated and distributed?
There is tremendous thermal waste in baseload on off-peak hours, as demand falls right down and they can't be cycled on and off. That's why power is cheap overnight - it's plentiful. If EVs are charging and using that power, stopping the efficiency-killing thermal cycling(or just pure waste), they're essentially getting far higher efficiency. This slow thermal cycle of baseload is one reason why solar is mostly bull**** and a big waste/has little CO2 impact.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-18-2018 at 01:54 PM.
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Old 09-18-2018, 01:57 PM   #5358
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
You legitimately fail to understand how capital investment + competition works. It's extraordinary. Let me quote you below and then apply the same logic to oil
Lol there's a direct comparison between fixed embedded costs in a cartel and dynamic cost in a competitive one? Just wow.

Distribution and transmission costs are sunken in gas price, soyboy, where distribution and transmission costs for electricity increase relative to useage.


Quote:
It's not dubious, it's a certainty. There is no one I know of who thinks EVs will be more expensive.

Quote:
No, you just have a brain block. It will cost hundreds of billions if not a trillion to build out the infrastructure for EVs. We agree there and you'd understand that I know that if you could read.
And that cost will be passed on to electricity consumers. So what year in the 26th century will ev cars be less expensive than gas ones, again?

Quote:
What you don't understand is best shown by demonstration. Your post, above, modified for oil in 2013 as shale took off:
Again, see above. Transmission and distribution costs are pretty much fixed, low, and reflected in gas price. Transmission and distribution costs for electricity are a separate cost altogether (for the consumer) and they increase relative to consumption. Increasing power distribution capability by a couplefold will positively, no question, increase electricity price a couple fold.



Quote:
There is tremendous thermal waste in baseload on off-peak hours, as demand falls right down and they can't be cycled on and off. That's why power is cheap overnight - it's plentiful. If EVs are charging and using that power, stopping the thermal cycling, they're essentially getting far higher efficiency. This slow thermal cycle of baseload is one reason why solar is mostly bull**** and a big waste/has little CO2 impact.
I mean this is partially right I guess, except for the fact that peak load is mostly supplied by hydrocarbon and base load by renewable sources like nuclear, so the wastage you're talking about isnt wastage at all. Evs aren't going to suck up 'base load wastage', they will just raise the base and peak loads altogether.

Think of base load like the minimum turning of electricity turbines to keep the grid energized. Prime movers are more efficient at rated speed, so running them at low speed is 'thermally wasteful.' But since base load is, as far as possible, met by renewable energy sources and peak load by hydrocarbon (since it's faster to run up to operating speed) evs will simply burn more hydrocarbon unless upstream energy sources are also altered.

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Old 09-18-2018, 02:33 PM   #5359
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclem...tural-gas/amp/

Of course what even this journalist leaves out is that as demand for coal/NG etc increase, so does increase in those commodities price as they are of scarce supply, and thus, another vector of increasing electricity price.

I didnt even consider other factors like nuclear plants getting old enough to be retired, etc. So much for twoplustwos master rhetorician.
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Old 09-18-2018, 02:41 PM   #5360
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by waffle View Post
the Tesla polarization reminds me of the greater US political polarization - perhaps it's caused by social media + filter bubbles?
Probably but all major polarizations like this seem to have the same "logic vs religion" feel to them
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:11 PM   #5361
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot View Post
Distribution and transmission costs are sunken in gas price, soyboy, where distribution and transmission costs for electricity increase relative to useage.
Could you elaborate on this?
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:12 PM   #5362
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I used to like Elon a lot but his descent into madness is making him less likeable.

Tesla I would like to see succeed more than fail but I'm just very doubtful at this point they can ultimately make it.

SpaceX is so cool that it's hard to not like Elon for me. Anyone who takes major risks in starting seemingly impossible businesses and finds a way to be successful gets a lot of points with me.
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:18 PM   #5363
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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SpaceX is so cool that it's hard to not like Elon for me. Anyone who takes major risks in starting seemingly impossible businesses and finds a way to be successful gets a lot of points with me.
Agreed. He deserves credit for his crazy energy, his never-give-up drive, and his grandiose no-barriers thinking, and for giving hope and meaning to a generation of cucks. And he hired smart hungry rocket scientists who did all the good work and gave them money and freedom. All commendable.

He's a great startup guy or pop science educator or creative process reworker or PR guy (before the drugs) or sales executive. He's incompetent at anything else. Totally unsuited to a car manufacturing business. He's basically levels above his Peter Principle in running Tesla.

SpaceX has had adults take over and run everything once it went past the startup stage. Musk is just the company mascot to rally the team while the smart/capable people do the work and run things. If Tesla had done the same they might be ok - carmaking is way harder than rocket making.
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:34 PM   #5364
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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the Tesla polarization reminds me of the greater US political polarization - perhaps it's caused by social media + filter bubbles?
A cuck is born every minute.
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:52 PM   #5365
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot View Post
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

I would take EIA's info over AFDC's, and you can see the breakdown is more precise in the above link than in yours. Though I don't think splitting hairs over 5–6% is worthwhile, so I don't know why you bothered bringing it up. Both your source and mine contradict your statement that I originally highlighted, where you say we would just be burning the same amount of hydrocarbons to power EVs. Now you say we would burn less than 70%.

Also of note for your discussion with TS, this is from the same web page that you linked:

"...[E]xisting U.S. electricity infrastructure has sufficient capacity to meet about 73% of the energy needs of the country's light-duty vehicles."

So we wouldn't have to build any new plants even if over half of consumer vehicles were replaced with EVs. Consider how increasing ride-sharing and smart-grid tech will contribute as well, and it seems probable that the plant expansion will be a very minor issue, even well after Tesla has become a $5 trillion company/bankrupt.
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:01 PM   #5366
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Could you elaborate on this?
Because electricity is transmitted in high voltages along the grid, and must be stepped down to deliver low, single phase current to residential homes, that means a boatload more infrastructure for residential and commercial from lower voltage transmission lines to transformers and phase reducers than industrial, which can internally step down say 4160v to 480v 3 phase AC which is what most industrial equipment runs on. This cost is relative to your individual useage. So as your useage increases, the more you're personally paying on your electricity bill not just for kwh but for transmission and distribution costs as well. More infrastructure means more maintenance and more cost. For something like battery chargers, you have to convert single phase AC to DC. I'm not sure but I'm assuming the same for Tesla etc, which means rectifiers and other equipment needed, which increases power cost for the consumer even more. For more loading for millions of electric vehicles, the cost of natural gas/coal/fuel will certainly go up, and you will pay for it.

It's been mentioned before, that Tesla currently eats its power costs because literally no one would buy an ev if they didnt, because it would be absurdly more expensive to operate one at the present time without subsidies, etc.

The point is, it's not so cut and dried as 2+2s preeminent rhetorician makes it out to be. Ev cars will certainly be more cost efficient in a vacuum, but the claim they will be overall less costly than gas cars is dubious at best. Even the claim they will be more environmentally friendly is dubious.
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:07 PM   #5367
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

I would take EIA's info over AFDC's, and you can see the breakdown is more precise in the above link than in yours. Though I don't think splitting hairs over 5–6% is worthwhile, so I don't know why you bothered bringing it up. Both your source and mine contradict your statement that I originally highlighted, where you say we would just be burning the same amount of hydrocarbons to power EVs. Now you say we would burn less than 70%.

Also of note for your discussion with TS, this is from the same web page that you linked:

"...[E]xisting U.S. electricity infrastructure has sufficient capacity to meet about 73% of the energy needs of the country's light-duty vehicles."

So we wouldn't have to build any new plants even if over half of consumer vehicles were replaced with EVs. Consider how increasing ride-sharing and smart-grid tech will contribute as well, and it seems probable that the plant expansion will be a very minor issue, even well after Tesla has become a $5 trillion company/bankrupt.
What? It says right there that it has the ability to meet only 73% of the countries light vehicle needs. Even if that's talking about unutilized power the grid would still have to be augmented by 37%. That's an absolutely enormous investment. Were talking trillions of dollars. For what? To burn methane instead of gasoline?

Not only that, even though burning methane in a gas turbine or boiler is less dirty than gasoline you'd have to burn way more of it to get the same energy output since there's less energy in a methane molecule than a gasoline one. So it may pollute even more than gasoline.
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:12 PM   #5368
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I used to like Elon a lot but his descent into madness is making him less likeable.

Tesla I would like to see succeed more than fail but I'm just very doubtful at this point they can ultimately make it.

SpaceX is so cool that it's hard to not like Elon for me. Anyone who takes major risks in starting seemingly impossible businesses and finds a way to be successful gets a lot of points with me.
Yea I pretty much agree with all of this.

I'd only add that I was pretty much buying into the hype up until maybe 24ish months ago, give or take a few months. I mean SpaceX had recently landed a booster on a ship at sea, and had substantially lowered the cost to deliver goods to space (at least in my lifetime from a US perspective); Tesla AutoPilot seemed to be humming along and the Model S was super rad. Sure there were a few chinks in the armor, but on the whole it was super exciting.

The problem with hype is you have to constantly out do the last seemingly impossible/great whatever thing you were hyping. (It's a little like why I can't watch certain movie franchises anymore. /derail) Eventually your exponential hype machine becomes so detached from the finite real world that it all comes crumbling down. We're well past that point with ElonHype.

And on some level it's super depressing.
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:16 PM   #5369
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Not only that, even though burning methane in a gas turbine or boiler is less dirty than gasoline you'd have to burn way more of it to get the same energy output since there's less energy in a methane molecule than a gasoline one. So it may pollute even more than gasoline.
What? Methane has the highest energy output per unit of CO2 of all the fuels, which is the metric that matters. You have it exactly backwards. You have pretty much everything backwards. It's quite amazing.
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:17 PM   #5370
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Today we learn:

- DoJ has a criminal probe on Tesla.
- SEC referred Tesla to the DoJ to open the criminal probe
- Tesla admits that the probe has been ongoing for a month
- No 8-k filed in the interim regarding the probe
- Bankers urge Tesla to recruit managers to share operational duties with Elon
- Tesla's BOD supposedly consulting with Alvarez & Marsal, the same group that helped Lehman through its Chapter 11

For us, these events represent a historical moment in the annals of corporate governance and an epic embarrassment to the capital markets.

For Elon Musk and Tesla's Board of Directors, it was Tuesday.

As ASAP correctly notes with respect to the events revealed today that would normally crater any other company 20%+, Tesla is back to about where it was when the CAO resigned and the market has yawned it off, so it is a big nothing burger.

Stock price uber alles. Stock price, bro! This is fine. Please BTFD.

Last edited by Morishita System; 09-18-2018 at 04:24 PM.
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:35 PM   #5371
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Today we learn:

- DoJ has a criminal probe on Tesla.
- SEC referred Tesla to the DoJ to open the criminal probe
- Tesla admits that the probe has been ongoing for a month
- No 8-k filed in the interim regarding the probe
- Bankers urge Tesla to recruit managers to share operational duties with Elon
- Tesla's BOD supposedly consulting with Alvarez & Marsal, the same group that helped Lehman through its Chapter 11

For us, these events represent a historical moment in the annals of corporate governance and an epic embarrassment to the capital markets.

For Elon Musk and Tesla's Board of Directors, it was Tuesday.

As ASAP correctly notes with respect to the events revealed today that would normally crater any other company 20%+, Tesla is back to about where it was when the CAO resigned and the market has yawned it off, so it is a big nothing burger.

Stock price uber alles. Stock price, bro! This is fine. Please BTFD.
It all seems surreal in a way
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:40 PM   #5372
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Stock price uber alles. Stock price, bro! This is fine. Please BTFD.
Stock price may be ok, but the bonds/credit default swaps are trading like it's nearly Enron. That market seems to be sharper, we'll see in january when the next big bond payment is due.

We do need an Elon-dog-in-fire-meme "this is fine" - gotta be out there already.
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Old 09-18-2018, 05:07 PM   #5373
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Link to Alvarez & Marsal? Google has nothing.
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Old 09-18-2018, 05:28 PM   #5374
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Link to Alvarez & Marsal? Google has nothing.
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:05 PM   #5375
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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What? Methane has the highest energy output per unit of CO2 of all the fuels, which is the metric that matters. You have it exactly backwards. You have pretty much everything backwards. It's quite amazing.
Lol that's like saying the sky is blue. Methane is CH4 so of course per unit it's going to create the least amount of CO2. It only has one carbon atom in its structure.

It has the LEAST amount of useable energy per molecule of its particular hydrocarbon family.

You going to address the increase in cost of scarce primary resources with increase in demand and the repercussions on downstream economic incentives or just continue to bull**** your way through life like you bull**** your way through 2+2 threads?

You've yet to address a single challenge to your assertions with anything but baseless rhetoric.
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