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Old 09-15-2018, 12:35 PM   #5276
JKC
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Would love for you to explain the math behind why it's a +ev trade... The hilarious thing is it's very likely this isn't even a long premium move, just a hedge to an existing position or someone closing out short puts but whatever you say lol.
Isn't the math explained in his post?
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Old 09-15-2018, 12:41 PM   #5277
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Isn't the math explained in his post?
Maybe you can explain it to me then? Better than a 250 to 1 chance TSLA goes bankrupt/down 80%+ in 25 trading days?
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Old 09-15-2018, 12:44 PM   #5278
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

If that's your thinking (and again be careful to take advice from those who call something a good idea but have zero skin in the idea themselves), then I disagree and say there a lot of better ways to benefit from a huge move without having such a polarized scenario of all or nothing.
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Old 09-15-2018, 01:09 PM   #5279
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I mean, I agree it definitely is probably paired with something, I think one factor that needs to be considered is that tesla doesn’t totally tank in BK, but I don’t know the rules for institutions holding during BK
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Old 09-15-2018, 01:19 PM   #5280
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

This is a bull market, look at how the heavily shorted names have performed lately. It's a credit to bears that they've even been able to keep a name like this underperforming recently given the intense interest from both sides. You really need the market to tank to have a scenario where this truly dumps and even that doesn't seem certain to me with how dedicated the long side is. Ross Gerber is a clown but his firm was buying the debt all week, he's not alone in the amount of "dumb" money that is out there. I forget what article it was in but there maybe $1 trillion in private equity cash just sitting out there, good luck trying to prove they can't raise from somewhere. The Saudis may not have bought out the firm but they did still take a pretty nice sized stake.

I'm no bull but this thread has become a weird echo chamber repeating news the market already knows as if suddenly that's going to cause massive liquidation among the long side. The longs dgaf, this idea that people will be running for exits like Enron/Valeant isnt going to happen. If it does go down this will drag on for YEARS.

I was thinking about two companies that have been locked to go BK for a while being Moviepass & Sears, even they are still up and running despite the inevitable demise everyone knows is coming. People still love Tesla and want to own the cars despite the issues we all know, that has to count for something.
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Old 09-15-2018, 02:34 PM   #5281
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
Would love for you to explain the math behind why it's a +ev trade...
That's actually very easy. There's extensive diverse literature building on the Altman Z-score and a diverse range of financial ratios in estimating bankruptcy odds. They have a prediction success of >70% of one year bankruptcy. Taking the most conservative estimates, Tesla is > 1%/month chance of going bankrupt purely on these formulas. You're getting paid 4001:1 on these puts. Game over on the trade being +EV.

That that isn't immediately obvious to you makes you pretty ignorant of basic EV and trading.
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You limit your risk to your outlay but acting like buying lottos is a solid risk/reward, LMAO... check the OI on all the monthly September lottos that will expire Friday. Way more than $100k has been purchased over the past few months throughout all this drama and what a shocker but the sellers of those are going to clean up...
Are you such a raging dickhead that you can't understand risk versus reward? Are you so completely and irredeemably stupid that you're using a single example of a 500-1 payoff failing as evidence that a 500-1 payoff bet is a bad idea?

Clearly you are. It's in black and white in your post.

I personally don't like the $50s for various reasons and have argued against getting them, but they're +EV by a long way.
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Old 09-15-2018, 02:54 PM   #5282
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Lol alright have a good one man, maybe someday we can have a discussion that doesn't end in your name calling.
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Old 09-15-2018, 03:01 PM   #5283
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Isnít Sears like 99% off the high price? Probably not the best example of a company dragging on.
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Old 09-15-2018, 03:11 PM   #5284
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Isnít Sears like 99% off the high price? Probably not the best example of a company dragging on.
My point with both of those is they still exist despite being the two clearest zeros I could think of, someone is still buying equity no matter how dilutive or worthless it will end up being. People are still shopping at Sears and using Moviepass despite the business models being screwed. They both have been able to raise money to stay in business despite horrible debt levels/ratings.
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Old 09-15-2018, 03:21 PM   #5285
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

It takes a lot of wrong to get to a BK in this market, you really need corporate credit to show cracks before I'd believe they won't be able to raise money without catering the stock imo. Sure it will be more expensive to raise/dilutive to shareholders given the current ratings but it still wouldn't prevent them from being able to do it if needed. Raising money is the whole ballgame, I'll be right there with all you bears if the day comes when they can't meet their obligations. Not there yet...
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:20 PM   #5286
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

If you actually look at your examples they're not good ones. Sears doesn't need to spend large amounts of new capital just to survive and keep putting the product out.

Automaker bankruptcies are the norm. There's a reason no new American car maker has come on the scene for decades. Longer term, the list of automakers bankruptcies far exceeds the list of successes.

As for HMNY, it's a really bad example for your case. It has a mere $13M market cap now and it went from $1000 in April to $100 in May. If Tesla did that move in the same time frame his $50 puts would be a 200 bagger. And HMNY can survive at smaller scale or score a buyout since it's so cheap - penny stocks can raise a few million of dumb capital continuously for years. It's a small amount of money. Billions are another story, and a volume carmaker needs billions, particularly when they'e 2.4 billion in the hole in working capital already and months behind with their suppliers.

Do you really believe that a bankruptcy event is less than 500 to 1 in the next month? That's a really big number. The odds that there is serious accounting fraud at Tesla about to come out is greater than 0.2% that given the raft of finance departures. Hell, even company-destroying earthquake odds (Tesla sits right on the Hayward fault with is 75% of > 6.7 in the next 30 years; quakes that large disrupted Japanese manufacturers for months which is sufficient to sink Tesla) are 1 in 480 per month and thus +EV.

I don't think you realize how big a number 1 in 500 is.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-15-2018 at 05:27 PM.
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Old 09-16-2018, 04:27 AM   #5287
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Hell, even company-destroying earthquake odds (Tesla sits right on the Hayward fault with is 75% of > 6.7 in the next 30 years; quakes that large disrupted Japanese manufacturers for months which is sufficient to sink Tesla) are 1 in 480 per month and thus +EV.
That might be the most poetic outcome for this Tesla saga—despite all the absurdity that's gone down over the past years, the primary catalyst for the company's demise ends up being an earthquake. Then the bulls and bears can still forever bicker about how it would have turned out if not for the Great Quake of 2018.

If that 75% in 30 years number is right, I get 1/260 probability per month actually. (Probability of fading an earthquake: (259/260)^360 =~.25.)

Also, I doubt a factory built in California in the last twenty years couldn't easily withstand a 7-magnitude earthquake, or that Tesla doesn't have it insured. But you never know with Musk.
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Old 09-16-2018, 10:16 AM   #5288
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

An earthquake would obviously be a scenario where TSLA ****ed up. I doubt that this would destroy the company though. For the reasons you've mentioned mostly.
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Old 09-16-2018, 11:33 AM   #5289
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

It's not a matter of insurance (you can't really insure against earthquakes, especially for the business disruption they cause). The factory will stand up fine but everything inside will be a total mess. It took Japanese car companies 3 months to restart production in earthquake-hardened factories after a 6.8 quake because of the internal jumble created - broken items, precise robots and pathways become misaligned or damaged requiring a whole new installation and recalibration, key staff can't get to work, stockpiled parts damaged, power outlets lost, local supply chains get disrupted, etc. Also, the Freemont factory was built in 1962

Tesla offline for 3 months = bankruptcy, and it's not close. They're -$2.4 billion in working capital and have billions due in debt payments a few months. Tesla are currently deep in structural insolvency (i.e. they would be billions short of available cash had they paid debts on time or if suppliers starting demanding COD).

So yeah, by somiso's math, monthly $50 puts are +EV purely on earthquake odds alone.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-16-2018 at 11:40 AM.
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Old 09-16-2018, 02:38 PM   #5290
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Good news about earthquakes and TSLA is that earthquakes shouldn't disrupt manual hand assembly taking place in a tent all that much.
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Old 09-16-2018, 08:00 PM   #5291
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by lol_at_you View Post
Good news about earthquakes and TSLA is that earthquakes shouldn't disrupt manual hand assembly taking place in a tent all that much.


He brings up a good point... Elon hedged for earthquakes. It is all starting to make sense now.
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Old 09-17-2018, 06:41 AM   #5292
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The liar and fraud Elon Musk is posting again, which means he's lying of course.

The repair situation is getting awful for Tesla owners - waiting weeks to months for repairs because of Tesla's utter incompetence, so Musk is desperately trying to get ahead of the PR cycle now as the complaints snowball. Watch the setup of a good conman/pathological liar:

1. Create and blame a (fake) external person for the problems you alone caused ("the shorts", "dishonest journalists", "third party repair shops") that have nothing to do with the external person.

2. Promise that you will heroically fix these problems soon by bringing them under the control of your all-encompassing genius.

3. Throw in an extra exaggeration/pure lie leveraging the insanity of truly stupid/gullible cucks who think you're a GigaGenius who can do anything (Spurious, heltok, ChipRick), to get them thinking this bad situation will actually be better than before ("better than new", "fixed in under an hour", "air friction limited", "alien dreadnought", "fully self driving features in 3 to 6 months!")!



Oh and:

4. When pressed and pressed and pressed from all sides with actual facts, realize the game is up, do a half assed mea culpa, while again citing external forces ("delivery logistics hell!"), and promise it "soon", donkey-carrot style, to subdue further criticisms:



Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post

Your average Tesla investor car owner needing repairs
Even the heltoks and Spuriouses of the world must realize they're being conned at this point, it's a simplistic pattern repeated dozens of times now that even the dopiest of people with the most cult-like Musk Love must realize that something isn't right.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-17-2018 at 06:48 AM.
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Old 09-17-2018, 08:07 AM   #5293
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

but stock prize, bro
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Old 09-17-2018, 08:15 AM   #5294
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

What makes the lie so crazy is everyone has had a car in the shop, thousands of makes and models, but tesla is the one with monthlong wait times. Yet somehow this blame is shifted to body shops who have zero desire to keep your car?



The tesla fan base has made me really question the average intelligence of society. Plenty of bulls who are educated and i would presume intelligent will eat up lies like this that are beyond obvious.
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Old 09-17-2018, 09:23 AM   #5295
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

An earthquake may not be that bad for Tesla. It's a "natural disaster" reason/excuse for Musk/Tesla to go get more funding and rebuild the factory. We know that Tesla factory is a patchwork of a lot of fixes. A rebuild may not be that bad.
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Old 09-17-2018, 09:27 AM   #5296
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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An earthquake may not be that bad for Tesla. It's a "natural disaster" reason/excuse for Musk/Tesla to go get more funding and rebuild the factory. We know that Tesla factory is a patchwork of a lot of fixes. A rebuild may not be that bad.
It also gives Musk an out "we were so close to pulling it off then that damn earthquake...force majeure"
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Old 09-17-2018, 11:55 AM   #5297
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Kimbal on cnbc at 4 pm


I wonder what the pump is
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Old 09-17-2018, 12:18 PM   #5298
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Back at $300 , i wonder if this is now resistance instead of support. The only thing that would surprise me is above $360 anything else i am prepared for.
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Old 09-17-2018, 02:07 PM   #5299
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Lawsuit secured:
Quote:
4 minutes ago

Unworth is pursuing two lawsuits: one in a US district court in California, which will cover worldwide damages, and one in the High Court of London, which will cover damages in England and Wales.

In his suit, Unsworth denied all claims made against him by Musk including rape, marrying a child, child trafficking, pedophilia, and lying. He also says he's never been to Thailand's Pattaya Beach, which was one of the speculative reasons Musk gave for supporting his allegations
Meanwhile, someone needs to explain to this hairball coder what "parallel development" and "delegation" means, as it's obviously beyond his intellectual capacity:


They can't figure out/plan ahead for delivering parts when doing 4% of the volume of a major with two years lead time? Really? They can't figure out how to parallelize parts and car delivery in the country with the best on-demand trucking system in the world?

When are the bulls going to realize that Musk is nasty, not-too-bright, chaotic conman dickhead whose mind is cracking from drugs - and the very last person capable of running a car company?
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Old 09-17-2018, 03:54 PM   #5300
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The lawsuit is a sobering read:

https://www.scribd.com/document/3888...nsworth-v-Musk

Musk simply made up most of his vicious libel as the truth is in direct defiance of all facts claimed by Musk (Unsworth has never been to Pattaya Beach, has never married a 12 year old, isn't single, wasn't banned from the cave area, was right about the tube not possibly working, and has a 40 year old long term partner in Thailand who he's had for seven years since he first visited Thailand - they met in London through her business and she showed him Thailand). Musk is off his rocker. And he started all this because his obvious deranged narcissism couldn't handle someone criticizing him, so he accused a total stranger of serious criminal acts with zero evidence.

If you like Musk, this creepy, chaotic, destructive, bullying, shamelessly and recklessly lying clown is your hero - and the CEO of the car business you're invested in.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-17-2018 at 04:01 PM.
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