Isn’t Sears like 99% off the high price? Probably not the best example of a company dragging on.

My point with both of those is they still exist despite being the two clearest zeros I could think of, someone is still buying equity no matter how dilutive or worthless it will end up being. People are still shopping at Sears and using Moviepass despite the business models being screwed. They both have been able to raise money to stay in business despite horrible debt levels/ratings.

It takes a lot of wrong to get to a BK in this market, you really need corporate credit to show cracks before I'd believe they won't be able to raise money without catering the stock imo. Sure it will be more expensive to raise/dilutive to shareholders given the current ratings but it still wouldn't prevent them from being able to do it if needed. Raising money is the whole ballgame, I'll be right there with all you bears if the day comes when they can't meet their obligations. Not there yet...

If you actually look at your examples they're not good ones. Sears doesn't need to spend large amounts of new capital just to survive and keep putting the product out.

Automaker bankruptcies are the norm. There's a reason no new American car maker has come on the scene for decades. Longer term, the list of automakers bankruptcies far exceeds the list of successes.

As for HMNY, it's a really bad example for your case. It has a mere $13M market cap now and it went from $1000 in April to $100 in May. If Tesla did that move in the same time frame his $50 puts would be a 200 bagger. And HMNY can survive at smaller scale or score a buyout since it's so cheap - penny stocks can raise a few million of dumb capital continuously for years. It's a small amount of money. Billions are another story, and a volume carmaker needs billions, particularly when they'e 2.4 billion in the hole in working capital already and months behind with their suppliers.

Do you really believe that a bankruptcy event is less than 500 to 1 in the next month? That's a really big number. The odds that there is serious accounting fraud at Tesla about to come out is greater than 0.2% that given the raft of finance departures. Hell, even company-destroying earthquake odds (Tesla sits right on the Hayward fault with is 75% of > 6.7 in the next 30 years; quakes that large disrupted Japanese manufacturers for months which is sufficient to sink Tesla) are 1 in 480 per month and thus +EV.

I don't think you realize how big a number 1 in 500 is.

That might be the most poetic outcome for this Tesla saga—despite all the absurdity that's gone down over the past years, the primary catalyst for the company's demise ends up being an earthquake. Then the bulls and bears can still forever bicker about how it would have turned out if not for the Great Quake of 2018.

If that 75% in 30 years number is right, I get 1/260 probability per month actually. (Probability of fading an earthquake: (259/260)^360 =~.25.)

Also, I doubt a factory built in California in the last twenty years couldn't easily withstand a 7-magnitude earthquake, or that Tesla doesn't have it insured. But you never know with Musk.

An earthquake would obviously be a scenario where TSLA ****ed up. I doubt that this would destroy the company though. For the reasons you've mentioned mostly.

It's not a matter of insurance (you can't really insure against earthquakes, especially for the business disruption they cause). The factory will stand up fine but everything inside will be a total mess. It took Japanese car companies 3 months to restart production in earthquake-hardened factories after a 6.8 quake because of the internal jumble created - broken items, precise robots and pathways become misaligned or damaged requiring a whole new installation and recalibration, key staff can't get to work, stockpiled parts damaged, power outlets lost, local supply chains get disrupted, etc. Also, the Freemont factory was built in 1962

Tesla offline for 3 months = bankruptcy, and it's not close. They're -$2.4 billion in working capital and have billions due in debt payments a few months. Tesla are currently deep in structural insolvency (i.e. they would be billions short of available cash had they paid debts on time or if suppliers starting demanding COD).

So yeah, by somiso's math, monthly $50 puts are +EV purely on earthquake odds alone.

Good news about earthquakes and TSLA is that earthquakes shouldn't disrupt manual hand assembly taking place in a tent all that much.

He brings up a good point... Elon hedged for earthquakes. It is all starting to make sense now.

The liar and fraud Elon Musk is posting again, which means he's lying of course.

The repair situation is getting awful for Tesla owners - waiting weeks to months for repairs because of Tesla's utter incompetence, so Musk is desperately trying to get ahead of the PR cycle now as the complaints snowball. Watch the setup of a good conman/pathological liar:

1. Create and blame a (fake) external person for the problems you alone caused ("the shorts", "dishonest journalists", "third party repair shops") that have nothing to do with the external person.

2. Promise that you will heroically fix these problems soon by bringing them under the control of your all-encompassing genius.

3. Throw in an extra exaggeration/pure lie leveraging the insanity of truly stupid/gullible cucks who think you're a GigaGenius who can do anything (Spurious, heltok, ChipRick), to get them thinking this bad situation will actually be better than before ("better than new", "fixed in under an hour", "air friction limited", "alien dreadnought", "fully self driving features in 3 to 6 months!")!



Oh and:

4. When pressed and pressed and pressed from all sides with actual facts, realize the game is up, do a half assed mea culpa, while again citing external forces ("delivery logistics hell!"), and promise it "soon", donkey-carrot style, to subdue further criticisms:



Even the heltoks and Spuriouses of the world must realize they're being conned at this point, it's a simplistic pattern repeated dozens of times now that even the dopiest of people with the most cult-like Musk Love must realize that something isn't right.

but stock prize, bro

What makes the lie so crazy is everyone has had a car in the shop, thousands of makes and models, but tesla is the one with monthlong wait times. Yet somehow this blame is shifted to body shops who have zero desire to keep your car?



The tesla fan base has made me really question the average intelligence of society. Plenty of bulls who are educated and i would presume intelligent will eat up lies like this that are beyond obvious.

An earthquake may not be that bad for Tesla. It's a "natural disaster" reason/excuse for Musk/Tesla to go get more funding and rebuild the factory. We know that Tesla factory is a patchwork of a lot of fixes. A rebuild may not be that bad.

It also gives Musk an out "we were so close to pulling it off then that damn earthquake...force majeure"

Kimbal on cnbc at 4 pm


I wonder what the pump is

Back at $300 , i wonder if this is now resistance instead of support. The only thing that would surprise me is above $360 anything else i am prepared for.

Lawsuit secured:
Meanwhile, someone needs to explain to this hairball coder what "parallel development" and "delegation" means, as it's obviously beyond his intellectual capacity:


They can't figure out/plan ahead for delivering parts when doing 4% of the volume of a major with two years lead time? Really? They can't figure out how to parallelize parts and car delivery in the country with the best on-demand trucking system in the world?

When are the bulls going to realize that Musk is nasty, not-too-bright, chaotic conman dickhead whose mind is cracking from drugs - and the very last person capable of running a car company?

The lawsuit is a sobering read:

https://www.scribd.com/document/3888...nsworth-v-Musk

Musk simply made up most of his vicious libel as the truth is in direct defiance of all facts claimed by Musk (Unsworth has never been to Pattaya Beach, has never married a 12 year old, isn't single, wasn't banned from the cave area, was right about the tube not possibly working, and has a 40 year old long term partner in Thailand who he's had for seven years since he first visited Thailand - they met in London through her business and she showed him Thailand). Musk is off his rocker. And he started all this because his obvious deranged narcissism couldn't handle someone criticizing him, so he accused a total stranger of serious criminal acts with zero evidence.

If you like Musk, this creepy, chaotic, destructive, bullying, shamelessly and recklessly lying clown is your hero - and the CEO of the car business you're invested in.

im gonna laugh when it turns out elon was getting his info passed to him from 4chan

Should have sued for 420k compensatory and 420m punitive.

Elon is so buried in that he is probably numb to things getting worse. If you are on the brink of some spectacular collapse that is wholly your responsibility, then adding counts doesn't change anything. At this point it doesn't matter if you told 50 or 500 lies. If the books are bad the same will apply, no real difference in pushing it as far as possible.

The more i learn about Vern the more i like him and the less i think hes a paedo. What a incredible twist his life took i hope he gets big payoff. Cant wait for the movie that bits gonna be hilarious!

Mini series


Has to be a mini series to do it justice


Like the hatfield and mccoys miniseries with kevin costner. Something like that.

Stock price bro

It blows my mind that people actually gave credence to the notion in the first place. Musk is on ****ing drugs. We know this for a fact now. He is woefully inept at self control. That is self evident.

If you're going to give credence to something, then think about the possibility that he beat Grimes. She hasn't posted on social media in a month and they're supposedly not together anymore.

Musk called that guy a pedo because he was angry, not thinking straight, and out of control. It was the first ****ed up thing he thought of and assumed about the guy, so he said it. Kinda like when ignorant people get angry at, say, a black person or a Jewish person and just default to their respective racial epithets. Then he doubled down on his stupidity because he can't help himself. It's the end of the world to him to admit or concede anything. Talented as he may be, his ego is that fragile. Much higher likelihood he got physical with Grimes (and possibly other women, trying to be possessive and controlling), though it's quite possible he didn't do that either. But if you understand his behavior, it's so blatantly obvious he talks out of his ass very often.

I hope he gets punished severely for this. People have got to be held accountable, at least to some degree, in this world of social media. There are some really ****ed up things being said right now that go unpunished and are causing damage, is dangerous, and conducive to a toxic environment everywhere.

I do not get the elon is evil stuff you guys are so convinced of. Maybe I just haven't been following it long enough. I see a super stressed out CEO trying to keep his company out of bankruptcy and saying some stupid tings. Not seeing the domestic abuse.