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Old 09-13-2018, 07:41 AM   #5251
mexineil
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Just wanted to +1 following BFI mostly for Tooth's posts
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:55 AM   #5252
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
I am not sure when you joined the thread to discuss. It's nothing personal against you. I've been arguing for three years in this thread. The thread is more than 5 years old and it's called "TSLA showing cracks?", the entire time bears don't ever see where they go wrong.



You would say the absolute same thing if you were to follow 9/11 conspiracy theory forums. It's convincing when you accept the parallel universe in which those posts are made.



No one buys ****ing Hyundais or KIAs. TSLA is outselling Mercedes, BMW and Lexus at the moment. Do you think they worry about KIA and Hyundai?
Do genesis count as hyundais? I think the g80 is a pretty slick car for 40k, i do own one tho so im biased

Last edited by syndr0me; 09-13-2018 at 08:13 AM.
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:58 AM   #5253
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

LL, does Hyundai or Kia make as much profit as Tesla on this volume of sales?
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:20 AM   #5254
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Larry Legend View Post
++

I hope Tooth ends up making a silly amount of money off of shorting this.

Spurious that last post was so clownish even for you.

5 years in an historically elite market is nothing for TSLA to continue operating for. The point of companies is typically not to fizzle out 5-10 years after going public. Typically startup type companies start to go public once they are becoming mature to the point of profitability. This company has been running like a startup in the public market the entire time, continually burning through cash to a level that makes Uber look conservative.

I'm sure you don't see how ironic your 9/11 conspiracy post is.

"No one buys ****ing Hyundais or KIAs"
The comment was obviously tongue in cheek. Do you not at all see what my point is?

I agree with the fact that this company has been run more like a startup then an established company. The going public was in 2010 where it was a lot more difficult to raise money privately. The capital intensiveness of the car industry made it necessary. But your point is valid.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:05 AM   #5255
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by waffle View Post
I'm baffled at the recovery it's made since Joe Rogan.
Millenials bought up Nike after that controversy, same force I think. I am not an investor, but I am trying to learn about things.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:11 AM   #5256
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Musk smoking weed makes a lot of sense. I remember an SMP thread where there was discussion about "are we all living in a simulation?". HAHA. I should've put two-and-two together rather than try to explain why I don't think that is the conclusion to be drawn. Duuuuuubeee philosophy.
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Old 09-13-2018, 12:38 PM   #5257
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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LL, does Hyundai or Kia make as much profit as Tesla on this volume of sales?
Profit?
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Old 09-13-2018, 01:56 PM   #5258
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by TomCowley View Post
Even granting most of the bear thesis ITT, what's the rationale for deep OTM puts at Jan 2020 or sooner? In theory, Tesla runs out of money next year (assuming the stock doesn't go to the moon to preempt the bond payment), but BK is priced at like 5% by Jan 2020 (1% by Jan 2019). Looking at other puts, assuming 5% BK, there's like a 10% "****s itself hard into mid double digits", and a huge likelihood based on the prices that it's north of 100. Which isn't shocking for something almost at 300 now.

People could be betting metric asstons on the BK or bust puts, but they're not (total *payout* of $50 puts and lower for Jan 2020 if TSLA is 0 is <200MM) and people are still willing to sell them at ~5%, and it's hard to believe in 2018 that they're selling that kind of instrument without a look into what would BK a company.

So even assuming that they can't make much, if any profit on the low-end cars, quality sucks, the autonomous driving sucks, competition is going to be more pronounced in a year.. what pops this in the next 15 months?

TSLA can't raise at all? Seems unlikely given that people who should have an idea of such things rate it as such a low possibility.

Major accounting fraud/whatever and the books are ridiculously worse than they supposedly look now? Maybe, with all the finance people running to the hills, but how possible is this in reality for a big company? (honest question, I mean I know it's not completely unprecedented)

Billions in liability from Musk's twitter? Probably should be the case, but lolusa#1 at ever following through that hard.

The hope bubble bursts hard instead of slowly grinding down as TSLA misses more and more announce dates, competitors catch up, etc?
Perhaps you are giving the MM options writers too much credit. Their purpose is to provide liquidity with enough vig that they can hedge out or otherwise, and they don't have to necessarily be super autistic about all of the happenings of the underlying. They're similar to Vegas hanging out sports betting lines, although somewhat more sophisticated.

You are also ignoring the counterparties who think TSLA is going to the moon and taking the other side either by writing puts or buying long term high strike calls that force the MM option writers to take the opposite side too.

Also consider that Jan 2020 50s only return 10 to 1, and people playing for BK have much better spots out there to try. Sep 50s have 7B outstanding in total payout if TSLA 0s by then.

Personally I think they just plumb run out of money and die without being able to capital raise, and I don't think they can do a cap raise for the reasons already outlined in this thread (no updated shelf registration, SEC would probably yank any new shelf registration, etc.)
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:12 PM   #5259
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Are they really going to 0??
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:12 PM   #5260
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Profit?
Exactly!
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:01 PM   #5261
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

+1 to TS content, also Mor****a.
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:39 PM   #5262
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The issue I see with Tesla is a very simple one:

They owe lots of money, and need to continually borrow more. Eventually they are going to **** up their finances and then its gg.

Hardware is hard. Building Teslas is very hard. It is also incredibly cash intensive.

They can't simply run a skeleton crew and keep the servers on. Once the cash runs out, it seems like it is completely over, very very quickly. Everyone knows this.

So if that is potentially the end, then you can ask yourself. What might the beginning of the end look like?

- Execs leaving en masse (especially from finance related teams)
- Musk using outlandish bluffs:
*We'll make a 35k car
*We'll be profitable soon, no more raising money
*I'm willing to sell to the Saudis
- Convertible note due for 900M currently underwater
- Imminently needing to raise money even tho he's been bluffing he doesn't
- The most shorted stock in history
- Problems with cars
- Strange dealership events, lots of cars with dusk in lots, waning demand
- Former engineers/employees speaking out about bad practices
- Competition heating up
- Musk being weird

There are just a lot of things happening right now that in 2 years if we were talking about Tesla going bankrupt, we would laugh about how obvious it was at the time.

Tesla over-extended itself by going all in for a consumer car, when it should have stayed a niche luxury company and then got into freight. Then, when they have a polished system, go for the economy car, and do it right. You can't move fast and break things when you are selling cars.

Even if they get another 5-10B lended to them in the next year, they still don't have a clear path to profitability beyond that. There is only so much money.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:12 AM   #5263
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Hold my beer, Spurious, I got this.

*ahem*

That's all irrelevant. #StockPriceBro
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:17 AM   #5264
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Bought 400 shares of NIO out of pure tesla hate and zero research @8.9


jin yiang at it again
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Old 09-14-2018, 03:49 PM   #5265
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Post apocalypse there will be cockroaches and tsla trading above $250.... I don’t understand the market
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Old 09-14-2018, 04:39 PM   #5266
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Gonna pull an ASAP here


Someone bought $100k worth of oct puts w 50 strike price today


35 days


That person is awesome
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Old 09-14-2018, 04:51 PM   #5267
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I thought those were Oct 2019 puts?
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Old 09-14-2018, 04:56 PM   #5268
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by WotPeed View Post
I thought those were Oct 2019 puts?
https://twitter.com/pierpont_morgan/...560768512?s=19

Nope
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Old 09-14-2018, 06:19 PM   #5269
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Ahh, I just saw Oct 19 and assumed it was next year. Definitely balla.
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Old 09-14-2018, 06:38 PM   #5270
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
Gonna pull an ASAP here


Someone bought $100k worth of oct puts w 50 strike price today


35 days


That person is awesome
Quote:
Originally Posted by WotPeed View Post
Ahh, I just saw Oct 19 and assumed it was next year. Definitely balla.
Buying lotto tickets 80%+ OTM is so awesome/baller, definitely a high probability trade one wants to be doing!

BTW, not that it matters to your perspective but with 26k contracts already at OI really have to wait to Monday to see even if these were BTO, $100k is honestly nothing in the grand scheme of things.
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Old 09-15-2018, 03:36 AM   #5271
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
Gonna pull an ASAP here


Someone bought $100k worth of oct puts w 50 strike price today


35 days


That person is awesome
jokerlightingmoneyonfire.jpeg
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:11 AM   #5272
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

That's the kind of emotional idiocy i mentioned.
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Old 09-15-2018, 09:50 AM   #5273
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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That's the kind of emotional idiocy i mentioned.
Seems like cold hard rationality to me. Tesla October 19 50s are 12c. If bankruptcy takes the shares to worthless 50% of the time (it's about 80% of the time), you need a 1 in 250 of bankruptcy before the 19th of October to be +EV.

You're the emotional idiot if you think risk of bankruptcy isn't 1 in 250. Multiple objective quantitative indicators put it way higher - Quick Ratio, net working capital, debt vs assets, upcoming payments vs liquid assets available, debt ratings. Multiple qualitative items put it higher - mass exodus of executives (including turning over their ENTIRE accounting team in 18 months and the new CAO leaving after a month), the CEO committing serious stock fraud and generally acting like a weirdo under intense pressure, not paying suppliers for months, a dozen liens suddenly filed in CA for prolonged non-payment of contractors, pushing customers refunds out to 45 business days (63 actual days), etc.

He's making a +EV trade. Not one I would make, but something like the $200 October 19s for $2.30 are fantastic value and very +EV. You just lose most of the time, but non emotional idiots play for EV, not locks.
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Old 09-15-2018, 11:15 AM   #5274
ASAP17
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Seems like cold hard rationality to me. Tesla October 19 50s are 12c. If bankruptcy takes the shares to worthless 50% of the time (it's about 80% of the time), you need a 1 in 250 of bankruptcy before the 19th of October to be +EV.

You're the emotional idiot if you think risk of bankruptcy isn't 1 in 250. Multiple objective quantitative indicators put it way higher - Quick Ratio, net working capital, debt vs assets, upcoming payments vs liquid assets available, debt ratings. Multiple qualitative items put it higher - mass exodus of executives (including turning over their ENTIRE accounting team in 18 months and the new CAO leaving after a month), the CEO committing serious stock fraud and generally acting like a weirdo under intense pressure, not paying suppliers for months, a dozen liens suddenly filed in CA for prolonged non-payment of contractors, pushing customers refunds out to 45 business days (63 actual days), etc.

He's making a +EV trade. Not one I would make, but something like the $200 October 19s for $2.30 are fantastic value and very +EV. You just lose most of the time, but non emotional idiots play for EV, not locks.
Would love for you to explain the math behind why it's a +ev trade... The hilarious thing is it's very likely this isn't even a long premium move, just a hedge to an existing position or someone closing out short puts but whatever you say lol.
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Old 09-15-2018, 11:18 AM   #5275
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

You limit your risk to your outlay but acting like buying lottos is a solid risk/reward, LMAO... check the OI on all the monthly September lottos that will expire Friday. Way more than $100k has been purchased over the past few months throughout all this drama and what a shocker but the sellers of those are going to clean up...
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