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Old 09-12-2018, 10:35 AM   #5226
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
Why does the timeline matter, everyone and their mother knew that this was going to be postponed like everything else. Whether or not it matters will be determined if Tesla has competition in this space that will move first. The assumption here is that this will be the case and Tesla has a weaker brand there.
Man, its weird you dont see the issue with intentional deception.
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Old 09-12-2018, 12:27 PM   #5227
Stratify
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The route planning, hotel choice and 30 minute breaks was surreal.
Can't wait to spend 30 mins in a garage forecourt this cold, wet, windy Scottish winter. I've not got an EV, I just heard it's a pleasant way to spend time!
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Old 09-12-2018, 12:56 PM   #5228
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Anyone following the #whereisgrimes stuff?


This company is unreal
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Old 09-12-2018, 01:55 PM   #5229
Spurious
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by syndr0me View Post
Man, its weird you dont see the issue with intentional deception.
I have a hard time following that argument. Those are obviously estimates, but everyone knows that it's impossible to say with certainty what happens in 1.5-2 years.
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:10 PM   #5230
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

reshort 291.9
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:53 PM   #5231
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I have a hard time following that argument. Those are obviously estimates, but everyone knows that it's impossible to say with certainty what happens in 1.5-2 years.
Um

No


Its very possible to know that one cant build out a line to produce production ready semis in 2 years


Its almost impossible not to know that
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:12 PM   #5232
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

it takes the real car companies about 3 years to build a factory and get the production lines running. we have already established, with the 'hell' that is model 3 production - quoting the ceo here -, that they are not as good at this as the real car companies.

so semi in 2020? no sir.
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:15 PM   #5233
Spurious
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

So, you don't believe in that stuff anyways. You are like most people, the timelines are not really relevant. Do you think the share price is as high as it is because of the timelines? Especially on something like the Semi?
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:16 PM   #5234
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Bought Sep 21 285 puts @8

Kind of gambling around here, trade idea is mostly based on the ratio of bad:good news being at least 7:1

-Production slowed even below 3k

-Big holders/analysts/clowns that were pure bull starting to temper

-Executives keep jumping

-Demand weakness

-More logistics issues

-Dead grimes/hookers/etc turnup
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:26 PM   #5235
leavesofliberty
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

What do people think about the solar battery aspect of the company? (nevermind: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3.../index208.html)

And, is Elon tanking the stock to send it private or merely being himself?

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 09-12-2018 at 03:33 PM.
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Old 09-12-2018, 04:54 PM   #5236
syndr0me
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I feel bad that i laughed at "dead grimes" as part of a thesis, and the fact its not near as insane as it should be
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:11 PM   #5237
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Today we learn:

- Largest institutional holder was contacted by SEC
- Managing director of said holder says Elon "needs help, and I mean that psychologically as much as practically"
- Nomura comes out with a downgrade and questions Tesla's ability to stay solvent
- VP of Global Finance and Operations leaves
- Director of Manufacturing Engineering leaves
- Tesla paint options reduced to 5 colors from 7 colors with two of remaining colors costing a premium

For us, these events represent a historical moment in the annals of corporate governance and an epic embarrassment to the capital markets.

For Elon Musk and Tesla's Board of Directors, it was Tuesday.

Stock price has recovered from Musk smoking weed on live stream and the CAO resigning within a month, and all of the above is obviously bullish since we closed green at +4%. Stock price, bro!
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:25 PM   #5238
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

The executive departures, particularly in finance, say all that needs to be said. This is the end. Even Enron didn't have this many finance guys leave so rapidly. And Tesla pays 3-5x the wages of the largest companies + extremely generous stock options. Dozens of high level executives are leaving at least 50% of lifetime earnings on the table.

At this point even Spurious, who thought the first ones were "nothing", must realize this means something is seriously ill in the company and that Musk's promises are pure lies. There is zero chance they are about to ramp production or become profitable. The departures say it all.
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:28 PM   #5239
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
- Tesla paint options reduced to 5 colors from 7 colors with two of remaining colors costing a premium
When you can't even paint a car competently after 15 years in the business, it's gg.

Horrible organization. Horrible forward planning. Horrible incompetence and inability to hire and retain competent people and give them trust and autonomy. The culture is toxic. It's no different to Musk's first business which I quoted earlier:

The Story of Elon Musk's First Company

Quote:
With all the new money, Zip2 was finally able to hire software engineers and even poach some of the best talent in the Valley. Musk had done most of the initial coding himself, and though he was a gifted programmer, his work clearly showed that he was self-taught. The new programmers found that they needed to rewrite most of the software, to make it more efficient. Musk’s DIY approach to coding didn’t include chunking, so he inadvertently created a “hairball”: a tangled mess of code that’s nearly impossible to unravel if anything goes wrong.

But Musk didn’t always agree with the changes, and he had a bad habit of returning the favor. Often he would re-write his programmers’ code after they left work at the end of the day, without telling them of the changes. He was also prone to micro-managing and rudely criticizing his team. Needless to say, they found him difficult to work with. Musk never stopped himself from bluntly correcting others when he thought they were wrong.
This is Musk in a nutshell - this is well after his formative years - and it defines what he does. He has crazy energy for startups and prototypes funded by his rich daddy, public money, and his ability as a conman, but he is is of fairly low intelligence and is utterly incompetent at doing things that require organization, discipline, and big picture planning. We're seeing this play out now with Tesla.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-12-2018 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:47 PM   #5240
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

ToothSayer, I think you get this too rarely so I'd just like to chime in and thank you for your posts. You're the main reason I follow BFI. I think the shorts are making a way more convincing case than the longs in this thread.
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:53 PM   #5241
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
I have a hard time following that argument. Those are obviously estimates, but everyone knows that it's impossible to say with certainty what happens in 1.5-2 years.
You don't have a hard time following anything. You just want to act deliberately obtuse and get in a workout with mental gymnastics. This whole thread you've been like that.

I should've changed "this is fine" to "stock price, bro"
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:56 PM   #5242
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
The executive departures, particularly in finance, say all that needs to be said. This is the end. Even Enron didn't have this many finance guys leave so rapidly. And Tesla pays 3-5x the wages of the largest companies + extremely generous stock options. Dozens of high level executives are leaving at least 50% of lifetime earnings on the table.

At this point even Spurious, who thought the first ones were "nothing", must realize this means something is seriously ill in the company and that Musk's promises are pure lies. There is zero chance they are about to ramp production or become profitable. The departures say it all.
How you see this playing out Tooth? 300~ retest before the next scandal hits? If any truth to those enty blog posts Musk probably doesn't have long left. I wonder if that could be the catalyst for the big drop.
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:57 PM   #5243
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

What is the availability of the Hyundai Kona and KIA Niro in USA#1? Seems like Tesla will have some fierce competition from these cars+the Leafs,ipace,etrons etc of the world right?
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:06 PM   #5244
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I'm baffled at the recovery it's made since Joe Rogan.
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:23 PM   #5245
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
The executive departures, particularly in finance, say all that needs to be said. This is the end. Even Enron didn't have this many finance guys leave so rapidly.
Tesla should just save everyone a bunch of time and put out a press release letting us know who won't be leaving before the end of the quarter.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:39 PM   #5246
bip!
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeans View Post
ToothSayer, I think you get this too rarely so I'd just like to chime in and thank you for your posts. You're the main reason I follow BFI. I think the shorts are making a way more convincing case than the longs in this thread.


+1 - I follow to read toothsayer too
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:14 AM   #5247
Spurious
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by TeflonDawg View Post
You don't have a hard time following anything. You just want to act deliberately obtuse and get in a workout with mental gymnastics. This whole thread you've been like that.

I should've changed "this is fine" to "stock price, bro"
I am not sure when you joined the thread to discuss. It's nothing personal against you. I've been arguing for three years in this thread. The thread is more than 5 years old and it's called "TSLA showing cracks?", the entire time bears don't ever see where they go wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeans View Post
ToothSayer, I think you get this too rarely so I'd just like to chime in and thank you for your posts. You're the main reason I follow BFI. I think the shorts are making a way more convincing case than the longs in this thread.
You would say the absolute same thing if you were to follow 9/11 conspiracy theory forums. It's convincing when you accept the parallel universe in which those posts are made.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yakmelk View Post
What is the availability of the Hyundai Kona and KIA Niro in USA#1? Seems like Tesla will have some fierce competition from these cars+the Leafs,ipace,etrons etc of the world right?
No one buys ****ing Hyundais or KIAs. TSLA is outselling Mercedes, BMW and Lexus at the moment. Do you think they worry about KIA and Hyundai?
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:54 AM   #5248
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Even granting most of the bear thesis ITT, what's the rationale for deep OTM puts at Jan 2020 or sooner? In theory, Tesla runs out of money next year (assuming the stock doesn't go to the moon to preempt the bond payment), but BK is priced at like 5% by Jan 2020 (1% by Jan 2019). Looking at other puts, assuming 5% BK, there's like a 10% "****s itself hard into mid double digits", and a huge likelihood based on the prices that it's north of 100. Which isn't shocking for something almost at 300 now.

People could be betting metric asstons on the BK or bust puts, but they're not (total *payout* of $50 puts and lower for Jan 2020 if TSLA is 0 is <200MM) and people are still willing to sell them at ~5%, and it's hard to believe in 2018 that they're selling that kind of instrument without a look into what would BK a company.

So even assuming that they can't make much, if any profit on the low-end cars, quality sucks, the autonomous driving sucks, competition is going to be more pronounced in a year.. what pops this in the next 15 months?

TSLA can't raise at all? Seems unlikely given that people who should have an idea of such things rate it as such a low possibility.

Major accounting fraud/whatever and the books are ridiculously worse than they supposedly look now? Maybe, with all the finance people running to the hills, but how possible is this in reality for a big company? (honest question, I mean I know it's not completely unprecedented)

Billions in liability from Musk's twitter? Probably should be the case, but lolusa#1 at ever following through that hard.

The hope bubble bursts hard instead of slowly grinding down as TSLA misses more and more announce dates, competitors catch up, etc?
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:54 AM   #5249
TheMVP
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
The thread is more than 5 years old and it's called "TSLA showing cracks?"
lol this is a good point.

chances you guys are still calling for the downfall of Tesla in 2023?
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Old 09-13-2018, 05:58 AM   #5250
Larry Legend
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeans View Post
ToothSayer, I think you get this too rarely so I'd just like to chime in and thank you for your posts. You're the main reason I follow BFI. I think the shorts are making a way more convincing case than the longs in this thread.
++

I hope Tooth ends up making a silly amount of money off of shorting this.

Spurious that last post was so clownish even for you.

5 years in an historically elite market is nothing for TSLA to continue operating for. The point of companies is typically not to fizzle out 5-10 years after going public. Typically startup type companies start to go public once they are becoming mature to the point of profitability. This company has been running like a startup in the public market the entire time, continually burning through cash to a level that makes Uber look conservative.

I'm sure you don't see how ironic your 9/11 conspiracy post is.

"No one buys ****ing Hyundais or KIAs"

Quote:
In the fiscal year of 2017, Hyundai generated almost 91 billion U.S. dollars in revenue.
Quote:
In the fiscal year of 2017, Kia Motor Corporation generated just under 50 billion U.S. dollars in revenue

Last edited by Larry Legend; 09-13-2018 at 06:05 AM.
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