So, you don't believe in that stuff anyways. You are like most people, the timelines are not really relevant. Do you think the share price is as high as it is because of the timelines? Especially on something like the Semi?

Bought Sep 21 285 puts @8

Kind of gambling around here, trade idea is mostly based on the ratio of bad:good news being at least 7:1

-Production slowed even below 3k

-Big holders/analysts/clowns that were pure bull starting to temper

-Executives keep jumping

-Demand weakness

-More logistics issues

-Dead grimes/hookers/etc turnup

What do people think about the solar battery aspect of the company? (nevermind: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3.../index208.html)

And, is Elon tanking the stock to send it private or merely being himself?

I feel bad that i laughed at "dead grimes" as part of a thesis, and the fact its not near as insane as it should be

Today we learn:

- Largest institutional holder was contacted by SEC
- Managing director of said holder says Elon "needs help, and I mean that psychologically as much as practically"
- Nomura comes out with a downgrade and questions Tesla's ability to stay solvent
- VP of Global Finance and Operations leaves
- Director of Manufacturing Engineering leaves
- Tesla paint options reduced to 5 colors from 7 colors with two of remaining colors costing a premium

For us, these events represent a historical moment in the annals of corporate governance and an epic embarrassment to the capital markets.

For Elon Musk and Tesla's Board of Directors, it was Tuesday.

Stock price has recovered from Musk smoking weed on live stream and the CAO resigning within a month, and all of the above is obviously bullish since we closed green at +4%. Stock price, bro!

The executive departures, particularly in finance, say all that needs to be said. This is the end. Even Enron didn't have this many finance guys leave so rapidly. And Tesla pays 3-5x the wages of the largest companies + extremely generous stock options. Dozens of high level executives are leaving at least 50% of lifetime earnings on the table.

At this point even Spurious, who thought the first ones were "nothing", must realize this means something is seriously ill in the company and that Musk's promises are pure lies. There is zero chance they are about to ramp production or become profitable. The departures say it all.

When you can't even paint a car competently after 15 years in the business, it's gg.

Horrible organization. Horrible forward planning. Horrible incompetence and inability to hire and retain competent people and give them trust and autonomy. The culture is toxic. It's no different to Musk's first business which I quoted earlier:

The Story of Elon Musk's First Company

This is Musk in a nutshell - this is well after his formative years - and it defines what he does. He has crazy energy for startups and prototypes funded by his rich daddy, public money, and his ability as a conman, but he is is of fairly low intelligence and is utterly incompetent at doing things that require organization, discipline, and big picture planning. We're seeing this play out now with Tesla.

ToothSayer, I think you get this too rarely so I'd just like to chime in and thank you for your posts. You're the main reason I follow BFI. I think the shorts are making a way more convincing case than the longs in this thread.

You don't have a hard time following anything. You just want to act deliberately obtuse and get in a workout with mental gymnastics. This whole thread you've been like that.

I should've changed "this is fine" to "stock price, bro"

How you see this playing out Tooth? 300~ retest before the next scandal hits? If any truth to those enty blog posts Musk probably doesn't have long left. I wonder if that could be the catalyst for the big drop.

What is the availability of the Hyundai Kona and KIA Niro in USA#1? Seems like Tesla will have some fierce competition from these cars+the Leafs,ipace,etrons etc of the world right?

I'm baffled at the recovery it's made since Joe Rogan.

Tesla should just save everyone a bunch of time and put out a press release letting us know who won't be leaving before the end of the quarter.

+1 - I follow to read toothsayer too

I am not sure when you joined the thread to discuss. It's nothing personal against you. I've been arguing for three years in this thread. The thread is more than 5 years old and it's called "TSLA showing cracks?", the entire time bears don't ever see where they go wrong.

You would say the absolute same thing if you were to follow 9/11 conspiracy theory forums. It's convincing when you accept the parallel universe in which those posts are made.

No one buys ****ing Hyundais or KIAs. TSLA is outselling Mercedes, BMW and Lexus at the moment. Do you think they worry about KIA and Hyundai?

Even granting most of the bear thesis ITT, what's the rationale for deep OTM puts at Jan 2020 or sooner? In theory, Tesla runs out of money next year (assuming the stock doesn't go to the moon to preempt the bond payment), but BK is priced at like 5% by Jan 2020 (1% by Jan 2019). Looking at other puts, assuming 5% BK, there's like a 10% "****s itself hard into mid double digits", and a huge likelihood based on the prices that it's north of 100. Which isn't shocking for something almost at 300 now.

People could be betting metric asstons on the BK or bust puts, but they're not (total *payout* of $50 puts and lower for Jan 2020 if TSLA is 0 is <200MM) and people are still willing to sell them at ~5%, and it's hard to believe in 2018 that they're selling that kind of instrument without a look into what would BK a company.

So even assuming that they can't make much, if any profit on the low-end cars, quality sucks, the autonomous driving sucks, competition is going to be more pronounced in a year.. what pops this in the next 15 months?

TSLA can't raise at all? Seems unlikely given that people who should have an idea of such things rate it as such a low possibility.

Major accounting fraud/whatever and the books are ridiculously worse than they supposedly look now? Maybe, with all the finance people running to the hills, but how possible is this in reality for a big company? (honest question, I mean I know it's not completely unprecedented)

Billions in liability from Musk's twitter? Probably should be the case, but lolusa#1 at ever following through that hard.

The hope bubble bursts hard instead of slowly grinding down as TSLA misses more and more announce dates, competitors catch up, etc?

lol this is a good point.

chances you guys are still calling for the downfall of Tesla in 2023?

++

I hope Tooth ends up making a silly amount of money off of shorting this.

Spurious that last post was so clownish even for you.

5 years in an historically elite market is nothing for TSLA to continue operating for. The point of companies is typically not to fizzle out 5-10 years after going public. Typically startup type companies start to go public once they are becoming mature to the point of profitability. This company has been running like a startup in the public market the entire time, continually burning through cash to a level that makes Uber look conservative.

I'm sure you don't see how ironic your 9/11 conspiracy post is.

"No one buys ****ing Hyundais or KIAs"

Just wanted to +1 following BFI mostly for Tooth's posts

Do genesis count as hyundais? I think the g80 is a pretty slick car for 40k, i do own one tho so im biased

LL, does Hyundai or Kia make as much profit as Tesla on this volume of sales?

The comment was obviously tongue in cheek. Do you not at all see what my point is?

I agree with the fact that this company has been run more like a startup then an established company. The going public was in 2010 where it was a lot more difficult to raise money privately. The capital intensiveness of the car industry made it necessary. But your point is valid.

Millenials bought up Nike after that controversy, same force I think. I am not an investor, but I am trying to learn about things.

Musk smoking weed makes a lot of sense. I remember an SMP thread where there was discussion about "are we all living in a simulation?". HAHA. I should've put two-and-two together rather than try to explain why I don't think that is the conclusion to be drawn. Duuuuuubeee philosophy.

Profit?