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Old 09-08-2018, 03:58 PM   #5176
The Financier
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Odd how the electric vehicle market is seldom discussed here. Aren't the TSLA longs concerned how companies with actual real manufacturing capabilities, like Jaguar, BMW and Audi, are about to eat TSLA's lunch? These companies are professionally ran and they have huge marketing budgets to sell their new EVs. TSLA has benefited from very little marketing, you never see a TSLA commercial on TV. They had first mover advantage for a while but that's about to come to an end.
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Old 09-08-2018, 04:43 PM   #5177
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

In general, I think the bear case is strong with Tesla, especially so at $300+. But the talk of imminent Chapter 11 is severely overblown in this thread imho. A couple things need to happen for TSLA to stay alive, and if they do stay alive the bull case isn't hard to make.

1. Musk needs to learn to delegate and hire someone/a team to manage manufacturing, production, and the supply chain. The recent promotion of Guillen signals Musk is ready to offload some responsibility. Hell, Tsla could continue growth at their current pace and stay alive if #2 happens.

2. Tesla needs cash. Yes I know their bond rates are increasing every day and they are basically priced out of the bond market. But by all accounts, Musk is extremely connected to most of SV and has found unlikely financing several times in the past. That he finds a few $B is plausible and perhaps even likely.

Regarding possible declining demand, I don't know enough to project future sales numbers etc. But my point I think is that oom leaps at like $50 strike are not close to +ev
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Old 09-09-2018, 07:42 AM   #5178
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

How does the range of other EVs compare to Tesla?
Does Tesla not have an edge in terms of its charging network?
And in access to battery supply? I thought some of the majors are limited in terms of access to batteries?
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:27 AM   #5179
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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How does the range of other EVs compare to Tesla?
Model S & X have a virtual monopoly until this month, when the better-than-X iPace comes out.

$35k Model 3 (which won't be here until well into 2019) will be substantially inferior to a range of 2019 EVs. The majors have Tesla crushed on mass manufacturing and quality. Musk is completely incompetent and Tesla's culture is toxic and antithetical to quality manufacturing.
Quote:
Does Tesla not have an edge in terms of its charging network?
A small edge, in California mostly. You're forgetting that long range hybrids (with a small generator) give you all the benefits of a battery and electric drive with unlimited range. Any of these have a huge edge over a ****ty range limited Tesla. Quite a few of these offerings will be out in 2019.

It's really ****ty to have to stop and charge for half an hour every 170 miles (less with air conditioning) with a base Model 3. Only rich cucks with fat ADD kids enjoy that sort of thing.
Quote:
And in access to battery supply? I thought some of the majors are limited in terms of access to batteries?
No, Tesla have no advantage in battery supply. Its pure nonsense that the majors have battery access limitations. It ill be Tesla who will end up having battery access limitations because it's bound to purchasing a particular chemistry to pay off Panansonic's investment (who will also sell to other car makers). That chemistry will likely become obsolete, particularly in terms of charging speed. There are a number of new chemistries entering production that are superior to current batteries.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-09-2018 at 08:33 AM.
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:54 AM   #5180
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

My $0.02 is that plug in hybrids will have a huge advantage over the near medium term for reasons that TS mentioned. Its especially true for markets where people drive further and charging infrastructure will lag.
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Old 09-09-2018, 09:50 AM   #5181
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It's really ****ty to have to stop and charge for half an hour every 170 miles (less with air conditioning) with a base Model 3. Only rich cucks with fat ADD kids enjoy that sort of thing.
This is why the model 3 niche is so small. Even people using it as a daily commuter would rather have the hybrid alternative for their 1-2 trips a year where they need more range. It just doesn't make sense to buy electric only with battery tech that's in its infancy from a company that hasn't yet figured out how to build a car without major glitches and is going bankrupt within the warranty period.

Model 3 is only selling because it still has a cool/status factor for poor people but that's going to fade very fast.
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Old 09-09-2018, 09:57 AM   #5182
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Morton already named the CFO of Anaplan


That means he probably started looking to leave after 1 week.


That or he had the anaplan offer and tesla offer at the same time. Either way it says really bad things about the guts of Tesla's financials
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Old 09-09-2018, 04:53 PM   #5183
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

ska reporting production has stopped
https://twitter.com/skabooshka/statu...55315331006465

and photos of the fremont plant under nummi 10 years ago vs now
https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/stat...36626456240128
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Old 09-10-2018, 12:44 AM   #5184
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post

A small edge, in California mostly. You're forgetting that long range hybrids (with a small generator) give you all the benefits of a battery and electric drive with unlimited range. Any of these have a huge edge over a ****ty range limited Tesla. Quite a few of these offerings will be out in 2019.

It's really ****ty to have to stop and charge for half an hour every 170 miles (less with air conditioning) with a base Model 3. Only rich cucks with fat ADD kids enjoy that sort of thing.
???
Tesla has an excellent nationwide charging network that works nearly perfectly. No other electric car has any charging network and the private networks are clustered around big cities with no high speed charging in between cities to make long distance trips possible. See post #4125 for previous discussion.

Stopping for 20-30 minutes every 2-3 hours is actually a very pleasant way of driving unless you are in a huge hurry.

Agree that for a lot of situations a hybrid is a more convenient solution for many people.
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:00 AM   #5185
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

This is level 2 coverage in the US and Canada. It's orders of magnitude larger than Tesla's network.



This is ChaDeMo DC ultra fast charging (1/2 an hour to fill up a car, supercharger level):



The east and west coast and major population centers are fully covered. Only the sparsely populated middle of the country is poorly covered with "superchargers", and they're more than adequately serviced by level 2 for the tiny percent of car owners who care about cross country trips.

Tesla has an advantage along a few coast to coast highways, but is far behind on ultra fast charging locations in populated areas.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-10-2018 at 03:05 AM.
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Old 09-10-2018, 04:45 AM   #5186
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Model S & X have a virtual monopoly until this month, when the better-than-X iPace comes out.

$35k Model 3 (which won't be here until well into 2019) will be substantially inferior to a range of 2019 EVs. The majors have Tesla crushed on mass manufacturing and quality. Musk is completely incompetent and Tesla's culture is toxic and antithetical to quality manufacturing.

A small edge, in California mostly. You're forgetting that long range hybrids (with a small generator) give you all the benefits of a battery and electric drive with unlimited range. Any of these have a huge edge over a ****ty range limited Tesla. Quite a few of these offerings will be out in 2019.

It's really ****ty to have to stop and charge for half an hour every 170 miles (less with air conditioning) with a base Model 3. Only rich cucks with fat ADD kids enjoy that sort of thing.

No, Tesla have no advantage in battery supply. Its pure nonsense that the majors have battery access limitations. It ill be Tesla who will end up having battery access limitations because it's bound to purchasing a particular chemistry to pay off Panansonic's investment (who will also sell to other car makers). That chemistry will likely become obsolete, particularly in terms of charging speed. There are a number of new chemistries entering production that are superior to current batteries.
Thanks Tooth
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Old 09-10-2018, 04:57 AM   #5187
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Stopping for 20-30 minutes every 2-3 hours is actually a very pleasant way of driving unless you are in a huge hurry.
I think a lot of Tesla owners are trying to convince themselves this situation is a positive when it is clearly a negative. Being forced to stop is a negative, not a positive. If it was really that pleasant every gas-burning car would be stopping for completely unnecessary 20-30 minute breaks too. Without being forced to stop, most people will choose to go longer, for obvious reasons.

I do agree with you it can be a very pleasant way of driving, but it has to be done intentionally from the start and only really resonates with a small portion of people. Instead, most Tesla owners are trying to justify their over-priced purchase and deluding themselves into thinking an inferior technology is actually ideal.

Last edited by Shoe; 09-10-2018 at 05:22 AM.
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:43 AM   #5188
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by ryuzaki View Post
Thanks Tooth
I do think Tesla have advantages in the following areas:

1. Superior battery and battery pack design. Tesla use better cooling and smarter design. They're a pure battery car company and it shows. In the real world this means extra range and more reliable faster charging (the leaf for example doesn't cool well enough for multiple 30 minute charges). I don't believe they have price advantages however, if anything, this comes at a cost. They also have minor advantages in electric drive trains.
2. Nicer, cooler software
3. Nicer aesthetics/external shell design
4. Flagship performance models to drive excitement/sales/lies
5. Understanding what consumers want to be excited about buying an EV. In this sense, a mega-beta billionaire who likes sports cars is perfect to lead.

Everything else that Tesla does ranges from fairly behind to far behind.

Behind:

- Competence in logistics

Far behind:

- Manufacturing competence
- Cost control
- Process control
- Build quality (gaps, leaks, rattles, etc)
- Interior quality

Clown-level behind

- Serviceability
- Reliability

If Musk had been less of an assclown/grandiose narcissist who thought he could do everything better than the majors rather than a few things better and the rest merely try to catch up/replicate, Tesla would have had a real shot. Instead Musk thought his (non-existent) kid genius could do genius-magic with robots, outdoing all global manufacturing and not requiring beta testing, until everything fell into a big heap of irredeemable failure that we have now. His extraordinary lack of intelligence and competence is why Tesla are in the mess they are in now.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:08 AM   #5189
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Behind:

- Competence in logistics

Far behind:

- Manufacturing competence
- Cost control
- Process control
- Build quality (gaps, leaks, rattles, etc)
- Interior quality

Clown-level behind

- Serviceability
- Reliability
Best in Class
-Autopilot*
-Rockets

*Full Autopilot coming in 2018

Last edited by GBP04; 09-10-2018 at 10:27 AM.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:30 AM   #5190
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Stopping for 20-30 minutes every 2-3 hours is actually a very pleasant way of driving unless you are in a huge hurry.
This sort of statement is insane. This is a massive problem with pure electric vehicles for the vast majority of car-buyers. It would not at all be pleasant for me, because even if I wanted to stop every 2-3 hours I'd almost certainly choose to stop at places that are more pleasant than wherever the hell the charging station is set up.

Its statements like this and the one by the guy that claimed he'd budgeted for fixing paint damage on his BRAND NEW CAR that are big clues on how delusional some people are on Tesla.
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Old 09-10-2018, 02:52 PM   #5191
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
This is level 2 coverage in the US and Canada. It's orders of magnitude larger than Tesla's network.



This is ChaDeMo DC ultra fast charging (1/2 an hour to fill up a car, supercharger level):



The east and west coast and major population centers are fully covered. Only the sparsely populated middle of the country is poorly covered with "superchargers", and they're more than adequately serviced by level 2 for the tiny percent of car owners who care about cross country trips.

Tesla has an advantage along a few coast to coast highways, but is far behind on ultra fast charging locations in populated areas.
Level 2 charging is meaningless for long distance travel. And a Tesla can use those level 2 chargers. Level 2 means drive for 2-3 hours, charge for 4-6 hours.

Having level 3 chargers in big cities is not helpful. The need is for level 3 chargers properly placed in between cities so you can get from one to another. Needs to be multiple stalls so they aren't full, reliable, and properly spaced. Tesla has that. Whatever those green dots represent does not come close.
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:13 PM   #5192
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I think a lot of Tesla owners are trying to convince themselves this situation is a positive when it is clearly a negative. Being forced to stop is a negative, not a positive. If it was really that pleasant every gas-burning car would be stopping for completely unnecessary 20-30 minute breaks too. Without being forced to stop, most people will choose to go longer, for obvious reasons.

I do agree with you it can be a very pleasant way of driving, but it has to be done intentionally from the start and only really resonates with a small portion of people. Instead, most Tesla owners are trying to justify their over-priced purchase and deluding themselves into thinking an inferior technology is actually ideal.
Definitely not saying that charging is a positive. As has been mentioned many times in this thread, there are a lot of awesome things about electric cars. The question is whether the minor negative of charging outweighs the many positives of an electric car. my point is that the charging is a very minor negative for me

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
This sort of statement is insane. This is a massive problem with pure electric vehicles for the vast majority of car-buyers. It would not at all be pleasant for me, because even if I wanted to stop every 2-3 hours I'd almost certainly choose to stop at places that are more pleasant than wherever the hell the charging station is set up.

Its statements like this and the one by the guy that claimed he'd budgeted for fixing paint damage on his BRAND NEW CAR that are big clues on how delusional some people are on Tesla.
I'm not sure what your driving patterns are, but here are mine.
1. Drive less than 200 miles in a day on 95% of days. On these days an electric car is slightly more convenient than a gas car, because you just charge at home every night and you don't have to stop at a local gas station. This probably saves some trivial amount of time per month, like 10 minutes.

2. Once a month or so take a weekend road trip to somewhere 2-4 hours away. Lets say 3 hours each way for an example. In this situation I will usually have to stop once on the way there and once on the way back. Average stop 20 minutes. If I was driving a gas car I likely would have had to stop once for 5 minutes to get gas at some point before, during, or after the trip. So total of 35 minutes per month added.

3. Go somewhere more than 6 hours drive away - I fly. The car does not matter.

Net net the electric car costs me about 25 minutes per month. Weighed against the positives of the electric car that is a big win for me.

I suspect that the BFI group is a younger crowd that takes 20 hour road trips where you drive 5 hours in a stretch to save a few bucks over flying. But most people I know that are 35+ either do short road trips or fly. and people 35+ are the ones buying 30k plus cars.
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:26 PM   #5193
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Pretzel, I'm from a place where longer trips (4-6 hours) are pretty common in the Summer. I suspect there are lots of other places where that is true too.

But even using your numbers, that's a pretty big deal! And its not just the extra time on a standard trip - it's also the planning / thinking you need to do before hand. I read your trip report from earlier and you mentioned having to plan your whole route out ahead of time. What if you'd seen a cool detour along the way? Oh well, can't do it because we don't have the charge to spare. What if the highway is closed and you have to take a detour? Oh, that's kind of stressful. You mentioned the stress of not knowing if the hotels you were staying at were going to actually have any charging stations available. That sucks too.

So, it's not even just about the annoyance of extra time on a trip. It's significantly less flexible (vast areas of the country will still not be practical for an electric car with a 200 mile range) and stress inducing for long trips. And when people are investing in one of the most expensive things they'll ever buy - they're not going to be particularly excited to give up this flexibility and take on this added stress.

The market is limited to people that really care about electric vehicles and fairly wealthy people that can afford to have another car that gives them the flexibility they care about for longer trips.

And even that market is going to be eaten into by competitors. The big rise of hybrid plug-in options is going to steal people with their ability to fall back on the massive gas infrastructure we already have when they need it.
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Old 09-10-2018, 04:09 PM   #5194
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Wow just when shorts starting to celebrate Musk calls in some favors and we get hit with counter punch $285 +8.5%.
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Old 09-10-2018, 04:21 PM   #5195
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Just to be clear about what is being debated. Initially I was talking about the difficulty of a medium to long distance trip right now in a Tesla vs a non-Tesla EV. To me that is a slam dunk that the trip is way easier in a tesla. I think any informed consumer would give it a lot of weight if choosing between EVs right now.

Then I was called insane (or maybe a cuck with overweight ADD kids) for saying that for me, taking a trip in an EV was not much less convenient than using a gas car. You brought up some reasonable situations where using an EV would be a significant inconvenience. Comparing an EV to a gas car is very dependent on a lot of variables like driving habits, ability/willingness to plan, EV infrastructure along the routes you take, etc.

I still maintain that for ME the EV is hardly inconvenient at all. And I think that a significant percentage of people who are in the market for 35k-75k cars are in the same situation as I am as where the EV would not be very inconvenient. I admit I have not done any research on exactly who buys cars in this price range so maybe I'm wrong but that is my gut feeling.
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Old 09-10-2018, 04:41 PM   #5196
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

My point is that the Tesla is a horrible experience for any sort of medium to long distance trip. And there are a lot of very real EV alternatives (plug-in hybrids) coming to market that don't have that horrible experience.

So if you think Tesla has a big advantage because of their charging network - you have to realize that plug-in hybrids have a MASSIVELY bigger advantage because they can use existing gas infrastructure which is way more prevalent and way more convenient.

And, yes, I think its insane if you think a significant percentage of people in the market for a 35k-75k car are willing to live with the massive disadvantages of a pure EV car right now. Especially if we're looking at the total North American market.
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:07 PM   #5197
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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My point is that the Tesla is a horrible experience for any sort of medium to long distance trip. And there are a lot of very real EV alternatives (plug-in hybrids) coming to market that don't have that horrible experience..
I've owned this car for 2.5 years and done dozens of medium distance trips (and one very long distance trip) I completely disagree that it is a horrible experience. Will just have to agree to disagree on this one unless you have some data showing otherwise.
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:33 PM   #5198
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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I've owned this car for 2.5 years and done dozens of medium distance trips (and one very long distance trip) I completely disagree that it is a horrible experience. Will just have to agree to disagree on this one unless you have some data showing otherwise.
Your data shows otherwise (as well as common sense)!

Quote:
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For a road trip I usually spend 10 minutes ahead of time using a website called evtripplanner.com to see how many miles of range I need between each charger I plan to use. This is because miles of range can be different that the actual miles due to elevation, wind, cold, etc.
Quote:
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Total was about 7 hours of driving and 1.5 hours of charging.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretzel View Post
Total was about 5.5 hours of driving and 1.25 hours of charging
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretzel View Post
Charging at hotels is always the most stressful part of an EV trip. Although several hotels have chargers, you never know if it will be working, and you never know if it will be blocked by other cars or be in use.
Quote:
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at one hotel it was about an 8 minute walk from the charger to the actual hotel so that was a minor inconvenience.
This is not an acceptable mass market experience regardless of if or how much better the Tesla network is from its pure EV competitors.
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Old 09-10-2018, 06:56 PM   #5199
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I actually experienced all of those things and none of them were terrible. LOL @ 10 minutes of planning for a 9 day trip, or walking a few minutes, making an experience terrible.

How much stopping time do you expect you would have if you were driving 7 hours in a day? When I was in my early 20's me and some buddies would drive from college to atlantic city and it was 8 hours, we would just stop for food once and gas a couple times. But as an adult if I am doing a long road trip I schedule in some stops so I don't feel terrible when I arrive at my destination. Probably at least 30-60 minutes of stopping for 5-7 hours of driving, maybe more if eating takes a while. so stopping 1.25 or 1.5 hours in 5-7 hours isn't that much different.

I do agree that for very long road trips , which I'm defining as more than 5 or 6 hours each way, the downside of an electric car becomes more pronounced. But in the past 10 years that was the only trip I've taken that is more than 6 hours each way. the rest of the time I have flown for long distances.

I also agree that hotel charging sucks. I usually plan trips assuming no hotel charging and consider it a bonus if I get any. With good hotel charging the medium length trips would be a breeze.

I would guess that a lot of people age 18-30 would agree with you that these stops are a big pain, but I think most people 35+ would agree with me that these stops are fine or maybe even preferable.
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:29 PM   #5200
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Having level 3 chargers in big cities is not helpful. The need is for level 3 chargers properly placed in between cities so you can get from one to another. Needs to be multiple stalls so they aren't full, reliable, and properly spaced. Tesla has that. Whatever those green dots represent does not come close.
I appreciate your experiences and thoughts but I think you're completely wrong about this and don't know what you're talking about.

This is the East Coast, Tesla superchargers on the left vs equivalent (30 min/80%) DC superchargers that aren't Tesla on the right. In sheer quantity, non-Tesla kicks the crap out of Tesla. There is ample coverage along highways and biways, better than Tesla:



Tesla has better coverage in the far less trafficked more rural areas. But most of those are overnight trips and there are tons of level 2 for that when you stop. Apart from that the Tesla supercharger network is inferior for most use cases. I think you're drinking the Kool Aid. The West Coast, Florida, the South, all look similar in coverage to the above, with non Tesla superchargers beating Tesla superchargers for number and spacing along highways and in cities.
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