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09-04-2018 , 08:16 AM

#5026

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spurious

What do you mean by market share? Like relative market share? Going from ~100% market share in the electric SUV market down to X%? I don't know, it's a completely useless metric in an exponentially growing market. Tesla will not make less money in absolute. It's absurd to think so.

I hope you know that this does hardly ever matter. What you are saying here is completely irrelevant. Plus, they don't have a charger network, they are not established as an electric car maker, etc. The number of times the iPhone has lost in reviews and yet is still highly profitable. This is such a useless metric.

Also, people go into a Tesla store and nowadays see cars for a budget a way wider budget range. Increasing electric competition is a non-issue for Tesla.

There's no chance they sell less model x than the year before when these competitors come out? is the market for a 100k SUV growing that much?

Quote

09-04-2018 , 08:22 AM

#5027

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

If the market was much bigger than 100K combined for the S/X they would have ramped up those lines rather than do the 3 so soon, as they're established lines with huge revenue per car and potential profit.

The notion that these categories are growing exponentially is really ignorant.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 08:30 AM

#5028

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Ill dont have them saved, but some of the pics of "new" m3 on twitter are unreal.

QC is gone, they are trying to sell every pile of **** they can

BK before EOY

Quote

09-04-2018 , 08:39 AM

#5029

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Im not a trained eye and i dont want to be a conspiracy theorist, but the trading around $300 has been.....weird

Quote

09-04-2018 , 08:44 AM

#5030

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

Im not a trained eye and i dont want to be a conspiracy theorist, but the trading around $300 has been.....weird

In what way?

Quote

09-04-2018 , 09:10 AM

#5031

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 945

if the latest reports of their cash position are true they are not in compliance with the covenants of their march convertible. they need to be on january 1 or they will default on those.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 09:26 AM

#5032

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Look at pics linked on the bottom

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forum...nce-2000-miles

Quote

09-04-2018 , 09:45 AM

#5033

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKC

In what way?

Maybe weird is the wrong word

Volume up and the price dips

Volume dies way down, stock slowly climbs, volume spikes proce dips

Maybe thats not weird, and maybe im reading too much into it, but it looks like funds dumping into retail holders, while also really not wanting to punch through 300

Quote

09-04-2018 , 10:16 AM

#5034

a_r_K

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 338

Probably rally back to 300 but was -3% today from Friday close. Everything gone very quiet i cant see what caused this drop that we didn't already know last week. I wonder if some bad news lurking in the background.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 10:24 AM

#5035

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_r_K

The future, explained to you last week:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I think news of this prolonged production slowdown propagating is finally going to get some capitulation.

Loony uninformed bulls were previously thinking: "Yeah the go private was weird and it sucks, but production is at 6200/week and climbing, all this crap doesn't matter. Profitable Q3!" thanks to the pure fake news Bloomberg tracker. Now the reality: production is 3600/week so far for the first two months of this quarter, and dropping.

This or next week puts are good trades here with the stock at $313. >80% chance of getting paid here imo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Fairly near. Expecting trimming, not an exodus unless new news. $290ish by the end of next week kind of deal.

That's the backdrop of what's going on.

Specifically today we have Mercedes ECQ announcement (meaningful competition arriving soon), Goldman resuming negative, UBS negative, Jonas jacking off to Tesla mobility but still only hitting a $291 price target despite clownishly giving the non-existent/will-never-exist Tesla mobility $95 of stock value. But most importantly, the market doesn't like the mega "Elon is an incompetent liar" miss of his meagre 6000/week by end of August target.

Market buying up off lows really sucks for a big down run. But I think it's pretty likely we keep bleeding lower for a while.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 10:36 AM

#5036

WotPeed

adept

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,074

Ugh...check out this reply to the linked post describing all the problems with the guy's new M3. I knew some of the Tesla diehards were delusional, but this is too much:

But seems most of your remaining issues & possible concerns are either small, synthesized from checklists/other forum posts, simply suspicion, etc:
- "Problems with our 'new' model 3 at delivery.. / Repairs were made and the car and pick up went fine." Isn't that good?
- Wasn’t too pleased with free loaner cars during servicing. Boo hoo. They're free loaners right?
- Exceptions were too much wind noise [likely due to it being a BEV w/o ICE noise coverage, maybe some due to mirror triangles - a simple, quick fix by you or Tesla].
- the speaker cloth piece needed would need to be special ordered and would not be able to get installed this time! Another boo hoo. Speaker grill cloth. Such a huge problem.
- Other minor paint blemishes noted in the paint. Probably easy fixes/polished out. You can get Tesla service to handle if too much for you.
- Paint < snip> soft. Pure conjecture & I believe proven as unfounded elsewhere.
- Rear passenger side door seal and passenger door seal not properly set. Yes, seals don't appear as neat as some other makers. Any problem with their actual sealing? None here.
- BOTH side mirrors adhesive falling off vehicle. An exaggeration of epic proportion. The tiny gaps at top of triangles? I just put a dab of glue/epoxy, problem solved. You can get Tesla service to handle if too much for you.
- Front windshield doesn't feel properly sealed. A guess by you who is looking for any/all possible or reported problems. Does it leak?
- This purchase has been a huge regret due to build quality control and poor service. Bet others would take your car as many issues are either already handled, can easily be handled or are nonexistent.

I can't even fathom the idea of having to glue pieces of my brand new car back together but apparently this guy thinks that's normal.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 10:44 AM

#5037

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Lol ya, tesla forums are special places

Quote

09-04-2018 , 11:19 AM

#5038

Trolly McTrollson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 37,853

The **** is with these mirrors falling off? How did they **** that up so badly?

Quote

09-04-2018 , 11:43 AM

#5039

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

I expected high quality from cars hastily built in a tent

Quote

09-04-2018 , 12:38 PM

#5040

a_r_K

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 338

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

The future, explained to you last week:

Well played TS, you have called this near perfect so far including calling out $420 as BS and also calling out Musk when he was on top of the world being compared to Iron man lol.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 03:05 PM

#5041

case3

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 774

Quote:

Originally Posted by case3

Hopped into the Sep 7 300 puts @5.4. Production slowdown seems strongly verified, I don't believe the plant has ever been able to quickly increase salable vehicle production.

Out for 12.5.

At 313 this was a great setup, have to admit short-term after getting this dip I am unable to model what might happen. Trying to only pick very high % payout spots here as a beginner that doesn't have a feel for intraday movements.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 03:23 PM

#5042

WotPeed

adept

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,074

Nice trade! More than a double in a week.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 03:41 PM

#5043

btc

Challah Atcha

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 2,576

Where's the $4000 bull now?

Goldman: Tesla shares to drop 30% in the next 6 months due to increased competition... Goldman Sachs resumes coverage on Tesla shares with a sell rating, predicting a lower share of the electric car market...

Quote

09-04-2018 , 04:41 PM

#5044

Trolly McTrollson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 37,853

But Spurious told me Tesla wouldn’t have to compete with other car manufacturers.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 04:41 PM

#5045

JKC

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 548

Quote:

Originally Posted by case3

nice! I almost bought these after you did but just shorted instead. Bummer.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 05:36 PM

#5046

TeflonDawg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 5,943

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spurious

The number of times the iPhone has lost in reviews and yet is still highly profitable. This is such a useless metric.

Says metric is useless...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spurious

https://insideevs.com/efficiency-jaguar-i-pace-falters/

Talking about reviews.

Uses useless metric in very next post.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 05:58 PM

#5047

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Last Tuesday:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Daily Tesla CEO Recap:

- Claims short sellers reprogrammed his paint robot

- Argues with NYT journalist over how many times he cried/his voice broke in interview. Claims it was only "once", NYT journalist disagrees.

- Demands journalist investigate his claims of pedophilia for a hero cave diver who criticized him.

On this week's edition of Tesla Tuesday:

- Musk calls journalist a "****ing *******" for not investigating last week's Tesla Tuesday pedo claims
- Employees reveal they had to lay down toilet paper and poo on the floor at the gigafactory
- Former VP says Musk is hopelessly chaotic and incompetent.

Quote

09-04-2018 , 06:04 PM

#5048

river_tilt

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,019

"Doubling down" does not really do this justice:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...buzzfeed-email

Quote

09-04-2018 , 06:05 PM

#5049

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Last Tuesday:

On this week's edition of Tesla Tuesday:

- Musk calls journalist a "****ing *******" for not investigating last week's Tesla Tuesday pedo claims
- Employees reveal they had to lay down toilet paper and poo on the floor at the gigafactory
- Former VP says Musk is hopelessly chaotic and incompetent.

This apparently still holds true:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

For us, these events represent a historical moment in the annals of corporate governance and an epic embarrassment to the capital markets.

For Elon Musk and Tesla's Board of Directors, it was Tuesday.

Stock price still > $200. Stock price, bro!