Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

08-29-2018 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by case3
Another note on demand, from a recent cc-



Breaking these down:

Prius (25-30k) These owners care about electric/green issues, performance isn't a factor. They might be able to afford 50k cars and chose Prius since it was the only option for a while. I don't seen any Tesla loyalty here, any other EV fills their demands as well.

Accord/Civic (20-35k) Tesla is a stretch at 50k, the small slice of Honda owners that will cut back substantially in other areas of life to upgrade is going to be eaten through very quickly.

Leaf (30-35k) Few of these have ever even been sold, surprised this is on the list (<10% of Accord sales vol in the US). Not many of these to run through, and fewer from people than will be able to spend more. Leaf demand is based on its EV drivetrain, not luxury/performance features.

BMW 3 (45-65k) This segment is where most 50k+ buyers are going to come from. Tesla needs to just takeover this segment to stay alive.



The 420k orderbook could be 80+% 35k models.


Hopped into the Sep 7 300 puts @5.4. Production slowdown seems strongly verified, I don't believe the plant has ever been able to quickly increase salable vehicle production.
Do you think production news will come out before then? I guess 5% isn't that big of a drop in a week. Just seems risky because it's so soon.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 06:21 PM
he is so gonna blame their internet troubles on some mysterious hacker.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
Do you think production news will come out before then? I guess 5% isn't that big of a drop in a week. Just seems risky because it's so soon.
!warning, I am an options beginner

The 'news' is already out. A less than full parking guarantees lower production. A full lot only guarantees an attempt at full production. Given the length and depth of the slowdown there are likely 2 factors at play:

-Structurally the plant can't operate at 5k week. The production line is not well developed enough, necessary maintenance overlaps with needed production time, paint shop is an iron bottleneck, etc

-Additional technical factors they can't work out easily. This could be parts shortages, labor issues, etc

Since the stock was still at 313, anything that threatens production numbers has to hurt it. One thing everyone can agree on is that they die quickly without production.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 07:40 PM
Has anyone joined a class action for funding secured? How would one evaluate which one to join?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ata
Has anyone joined a class action for funding secured? How would one evaluate which one to join?
Im joining the teslatweets.com one

I hedged a bit to keep my losses minimal is something went through, bought something like 5 contracts @ 17.0 sttike 360 if i remember right, sept expiry


I knew it was a losing trade but my position is so big the 8k kept me from major risk
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 08:37 PM
Another Tesla exec takes an extended "leave of absence":

https://techcrunch.com/2018/08/29/te...ve-of-absence/

Must be a lot of spare offices there (although I've never heard of a Chief People Officer before).
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 08:40 PM
Chief People Officer = HR
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-29-2018 , 08:44 PM
I figured as much, but since when does the head of HR get an executive title?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 08:17 AM
Head of HR for EA, perennially voted the worst company in the world to work for. Yet Tesla is a bridge too far for her.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 09:00 AM
Analyst view out this morning:
Quote:
Vertical Research Analyst Gordon Johnson Says Semiconductor Supply Issues Are Limiting The Co.'s M3 Production, Believes Tesla Will Miss Aug. 2018 Production Margins By A Potentially Wide Margin, believes consensus is not factoring this in yet
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 09:08 AM
Looks like 300 gonna go today and that monthly candle now looking nasty for bulls.

Last edited by a_r_K; 08-30-2018 at 09:14 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 09:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
Im joining the teslatweets.com one

I hedged a bit to keep my losses minimal is something went through, bought something like 5 contracts @ 17.0 sttike 360 if i remember right, sept expiry


I knew it was a losing trade but my position is so big the 8k kept me from major risk
Why are you joining that one specifically over the others?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 10:20 AM
Bloomberg completely out to lunch with their article from today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-round-of-cash

Debunked:

https://twitter.com/Polixenes13/stat...60425912926208
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ata
Bloomberg completely out to lunch with their article from today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-round-of-cash

Debunked:

https://twitter.com/Polixenes13/stat...60425912926208
All these bs articles are probably favors to big stock holders desperately trying to create positive sentiment so they can offload. Gonna be so disappointing if this sucka bounces sub 300 again.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ata
Why are you joining that one specifically over the others?
Idk, havent really looked
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 02:15 PM
Warren Buffett in something published today:

"I just think there are other things in life I would rather do than Tweet," Buffett said. "I'm not that desperate for somebody to hear my opinion."

Come to think of it, it's rather impressive Musk finds the time to tweet given his daily schedule is pancaked and supposedly broken down into 5 minute intervals.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 04:45 PM
Steve Bannon, of all people, calls Musk a manchild and other tech CEOs sociopaths. I need some popcorn.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 04:52 PM
There's no question that Musk is a manchild. His own stepdaughter-impregnating father thinks he's a manchild.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elon's Father
“I drove them to school in a convertible Rolls-Royce Corniche, they had thoroughbred horses to ride and motorbikes at the age of 14,” he said. “They were spoilt, I suppose. Maybe that’s why Elon is acting like a spoilt child now.”
Being an incompetent, spoilt little rich kid is part of Musk's DNA and it's showed in every business he's had since he messed up Zip2 that his father bought for him.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 08-30-2018 at 04:58 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 05:05 PM
He should not be in control of the grill at a bbq. So many have invested based on nothing more than his blatant lies. The fact that he is still there tells all you need to know about this company.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 05:12 PM
I will be buying OTM puts for the following friday tomorrow
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 05:32 PM
The prologned and seemingly permanent production slowdown should hit mainstream news soon (next week? week after?) then it's a quick ride to $270 as downgrades (including Moodys) hit thick and fast. Only risk is some end of month delivery spin from inventory drawdown and a Musk fraud rabbit. Market might play along too with Trump $200 billion trade war tariffs stepping up next week after entire market making all time highs.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 06:19 PM
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 07:43 PM
I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with all the time value on puts. It needs a big drop just to break even on anything a month or more until expiration.

I'm short and want to buy puts, but they just seem to need a big move to pay.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 07:50 PM
Man. You guys sent me down some ridiculous twitter rabbit holes.

For years now I've been wondering how Musk can run so many successful and innovative businesses. Tesla, Solar City, Spacex...

Turns out, he can't. The world just doesn't know it yet.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-30-2018 , 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
Man. You guys sent me down some ridiculous twitter rabbit holes.

For years now I've been wondering how Musk can run so many successful and innovative businesses. Tesla, Solar City, Spacex...

Turns out, he can't. The world just doesn't know it yet.
This is the first time I've ever really used Twitter. Follwing guys like @teslacharts, @bagholderquotes and others rack me up.

I also really like reading what the bulls are saying i.e. @gerberkawasaki proposing that AAPL buy TSLA.....what planet is he on?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
m