More bad news disguised as good.

"Tesla on track for incredible production record this quarter albeit being behind on Model 3 goal"
https://electrek.co/2018/08/27/tesla...-model-3-goal/

Elektrek is their PR mouthpiece. This is bracing the true believer bulls for ultra crap news. The article confirms that the bears who track production have been spot on on 4000/week since the fraudulent 5000/week at the end of June. It confirms that the Bloomberg Tracker is worthless. And they've said that production is WAY down the last two weeks at less than 3000/week. Not a shutdown either, cars are coming out, but a lot slower. This happened soon after a large number of deliveries suddenly got canceled.

We agree very dumb is an understatement right? Reasonable take overall

Skabooshka posted his theory. It seems pretty solid.


Read whole thread


https://twitter.com/skabooshka/statu...070654976?s=19

Also fits the whole force majeure thing musk referenced 3 times on the EC.


$TSLAQ makes me love the internet even more

Its that or its trying to create space between them and Musk. Not a guy you want to be in bed with right now, he is going to cut any deal he can to save himself if it comes to it.

Elektrek is in bed with Musk to the end.

Disagree, these arent hardened criminals, these pussies will flip to save themselves/their business interests in a heartbeat


Esp once fred realizes he isnt getting his free Roadster 2

lol didn't expect a NZ derail browsing this thread

off-topic but Lordes puppy had a go at my dog when we were out walking yesterday

Yes, NZ really is that small

As you were, thread is a fun follow

This is a good overview from Twitter of a key point.

https://twitter.com/TezzlaCFO/status...27521225293824

Either Electrek quoting inside sources and outside activity counters of M3 production (trucks loaded, employee parking lot utilization) are wrong, or the proven liar, fraud and conman Elon Musk is lying again and roasted. Place your bets.

My first though was this is good for bulls, just get more parts and the main thing causing the slowdown is solved.

But it doesn't sound like the shortage is going away anytime soon. The comment about TSLA getting parts last during shortage because they're slow to pay as well...

This site has some interesting numbers regarding inventory of new or nearly-new Model S/X cars available for purchase through Tesla:

https://teslainventory.teslastats.no...us&m=&b=&f=&c=

I'm not sure what to make of it all though. Most of these vehicles have some miles on them. Are they loaner cars given out while a car is the shop? Were these lemons that had to be taken back and refurbished? There's no model year shown, are these all 2018's?

I'm also not sure how to estimate the significance of the number of vehicles listed (if there is any). For instance, it shows that there are currently 937 vehicles available in the US. Is that a lot? It doesn't sound like a lot for the whole US but I'm not that familiar with the historical demand for those vehicles. On the other hand that's still about $100 million in inventory sitting on the books just in the US.

What does seem surprising are the inventory numbers in parts of Europe:

Norway: 555
UK: 266
Switzerland: 172
Netherlands: 1275 (!)

Those are the ones that stand out, the rest of the countries listed have inventory numbers in the low teens on average.

What to make of this information, if anything? We heard that sales in Norway had basically stopped. Is this further confirmation of that? There's 500+ cars sitting there somewhere that no one's buying? Why are there so many damn cars in The Netherlands?

If you add up the numbers for those 4 countries plus the US you get to about 3200. That's starting to sound like a lot of inventory on the books that has to be sold at a discount to get rid of.

It's interesting indeed and the links I clicked on all worked. If you go to the regular website, they are not listed anymore. I am not sure if all of them are available or not.

The Netherlands number must be so high, because that's where they have their finishing facilities in Europe.

The cars are used in the shops for test drives and the 50km/miles number is usually incorrect for those. They will have more miles on them.

They are usually sold rather quickly though. If you go on the website and look at the new car section and track it for 2 weeks, the inventory is changing quite frequently.

Tesla has always been opaque with inventory, they never put all of them on the site.

Im way too biased to answer this honestly, but who would shell out 100k for a 10 year old model now?

The people I know who test drove Tesla (I don't know any owner but I live in Poland where they are a curiosity) absolutely love it. I think they have amazing wow inducing product even if their design sucks (especially interior/controls imo). Electric power train does it to people. That being said I don't think brand is worth much. Once other players make luxury electric cars available people will jump ship.

I am amazed people are not getting rid of it at 300+ price. Tesla's market cap is almost as big as BMW's. It's pure insanity.

Tesla controls are atrocious... even some owners think so.

I know at least one guy who only drives his Tesla when he wants to pick up chicks. I suspect 2 other guys that I know with both a Tesla and a BMW/Audi feel the same way but just won't admit it.

Performance electric powertrains are amazing. Zipping around the French Riviera in ultra ****ty $16K rented Peugot Ions was way superior to mid range Mercs and BMWs. Electric cars are just awesome. Performance electric cars are something to rave about.

The rest of Tesla, from the CEO on down, is pure worthless crap and incompetence. The only "edge" Tesla have are that they're the only ones subsidizing performance electric drives with massive losses, shareholder dilution, and taxpayer money. Like SolarCity, that's a business model that ends in bankruptcy.

I think news of this prolonged production slowdown propagating is finally going to get some capitulation.

Loony uninformed bulls were previously thinking: "Yeah the go private was weird and it sucks, but production is at 6200/week and climbing, all this crap doesn't matter. Profitable Q3!" thanks to the pure fake news Bloomberg tracker. Now the reality: production is 3600/week so far for the first two months of this quarter, and dropping.

This or next week puts are good trades here with the stock at $313. >80% chance of getting paid here imo.

anyone believing 6k+ deserves what's coming to them, these people don't even care what the company is telling them.
they forcast 50k-55k this quarter, 3,6k/week gets them to ~47k which isn't even that far off, 2 or 3 better weeks could easily get them to 50k.

Except that, if we believe Skabooshka, who has been spot on with his counts (just confirmed by Elecktrek), M3 is even lower and has been for >2 weeks. Something is going on. And the reason this article was approved/"leaked" to the Tesla mouthpiece Electrek is to inoculate against even worse news.

You're implying near the money puts? Or even lower strikes?

Fairly near. Expecting trimming, not an exodus unless new news. $290ish by the end of next week kind of deal.

You think production news coming out will be the catalyst to drive it down so quickly?