or not

Who knows but if opens near Fridays close of 322 gonna be hard not to add more shorts. Can any bulls try to convince otherwise?

$420 not happening confirmed and Musk looks like unreliable fool with possible mental problems. Would any sane person commit securities fraud in such an obvious way? Multiple SEC investigations and lawsuits incoming. How does this not tank the price?

Production below 5k? Demand drying up? Where the fk is the 35k Model S? Running out of cash? What happened to Musks hopes for Solar city?? Then you have quality issues and crazy repair times.

Any bulls think Tesla good buy right now and why?

The bulls think nothing has changed long term and see this as a buying opportunity

Any other CEO is gone by now. Can he really ride this out and keep his position?

Tesla head of communications is resigning:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ine&yptr=yahoo

They should hire Huckabee Sanders. She's well acquainted with the art of lying through her teeth to the public.

on twitter they've been saying tesla hired joele frank, a crisis pr firm


bi article from wednesday the 22nd: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...e-frank-2018-8

No one read the wsj article tonight? Musk telling them he turned down $30bln from Volkswagen and sources saying the board wants to keep him on as CEO. Also same title as an old article about the downfall of Countrywide? wtf is this

Well. It's all bs of course. 30 billion would have valued the company around 190 right ? Where are we guessing this stock is at 935am? I'm hoping 290 or lower.

Doesnt even seem like it can be real life but it is

The inability of many shorts to understand this is obvious.
I agree with their overal hypothesis, but their timing and emotional investment are not helping them.

One of my biggest concerns on a short term thesis is that all the recent volume has taken out some of the saner money and left many of the longs as the craziest of the crazy Elon true believers. That and the chance they can find a desperate way to raise are why I'm advocating some 2019 but mostly 2020 puts.

It has to be nothing but bad news for the next 6 months, right?

Most likely outcome is bankruptcy in the next few months

Second most likely outcome is finding a funding source to limp in 2019, at which point Model 3 issues + credit due sink demand and it's all over. They can't make the car profitably at $35K or even $40K, and billions are due.

Third most likely outcome is that increasing evidence of fraud takes them down.

Everything about Tesla is screaming end stage. It always gets desperate and weird with the structurally unprofitable fraud companies near the end.

I would happily buy puts, unfortunately I don't have access to that.
As to electric cars: they are cool and people who tried them love them but I think brand loyalty is going to be 0 once other players enter the game so being able to produce cars at huge loss is not really an accomplishment worth much.

find a desperate way to raise...like issuing some stock? I know, crazy for a company valued at 50 billion dollars to issue a few billion dollars worth of stock. Basically unheard of.

^Do you think this company is valued correctly?

2025 notes are barely above their YTD lows, having said that until bears can get this below $286 and close there I still maintain this is a waste of time outside of short term trades. The amount of dumb money chasing premium here is laughable, you are missing so many amazing trades in the market with all the focus on this name.

I certainly wouldn't buy it, but if it is overvalued that makes raising by issuing more equity more attractive.

It's actually very expected and necessary to raise, so much so that it's bizarre that Musk has:

- Reduced capex and other expenditure, hurting future growth
- Stopped paying suppliers, forcing 12+ liens to be filed in CA alone (up from 0 in 2017 when they were raising)
- Allowed net working capital to balloon out to -2.4 billion as of 6 weeks ago
- Just increased the time to get your refund to 45 "business days" = 63 normal days
- Built a 1970s hand line tent from scrap material after promising an alien dreadnaught

**** ain't normal bro. Musk is either off-his-rocker insane/completely unfit to be CEO, or there are major disclosure issues when raising that they're desperately trying to avoid.

Seems pretty obvious its disclosure related


One theory mentioned on twitter is how much 200k orders (200m$) was worth to them both in stock price and ability to borrow


200m is not tough for musk to get his hands on.....

Its out there but man does it fit well with.a lot of questions

Sooo tempted to dive into some puts but today's price action makes me think there will be a better time between now and earnings.

Obviously a very dumb spot to be in. Completely unnecessary. I expect the future impact to be less severe than people ITT make it out to be though.

Or should i say, "earnings".

Matt Levine's Money Stuff is always worth a read, sharp law/finance guy. And his Tesla commentary has been on point. From today:

"not especially legal" is a great phrase.