i'm so excited what the writers have in store for us in today's episode.

Apologies for calling you a moron, but you are wrong.

I agree a balance sheet reclass would be the best case situation, but 1b would def be material.

Everyday is like xmas!

I didn't say 1b would not be material. I said -1b v. -1.2b (aka 200 million) would not be material.

I would enjoy a form4 filing by elon today just because why not.

Evercore analyst toured the factory for 48 hours, and are saying they were impressed by M3 line, high level of automation, and while they noticed noticed "various shutdowns and delays", think the line can do 6K/week and possibly higher if these issues can be sorted out. Up premarket.

Undoubtedly a pump piece (one-person factory tour right after the recent drama??) - PR chooses who he lets in and what they see and maybe even agree on what they say - but still a good sign for the bulls. Up 2% premarket

Most differences have an income statement impact. 200m is material, although technically there isnt an exact formula so lets agree to disagree.



Unreleated, but here is a list of mechanics liens against tesla in almeda county


https://twitter.com/temp_worker/stat...776750080?s=19

Reports of tesla backing out of deal with panasonic to buy solar panels


Should be good for the relationship

I would pay good money for a shednaught tour


Definitely seems like the plan now is to try and associate with as many respectable firms as possible.

I will admit Goldman pulling some crazy scheme off so it goes private before collapsing has me worried.

Apparently Tripps attorney doesnt think the tripp tweets were authentic and he can't get ahold of his client. Not ideal news but still adds another log to the fire.

That's pretty funny. Promised an Alien Dreadnaught, got an Illegal Alien Shednaught. Classic Musk.

With a dozen mechanic's liens filed over it because Tesla didn't pay them.
At this stage I think Tripp and his representation have little credibility.

Tripp's very likely right about the waste and dodgy accounting, probably right about the rework, but I don't see a giant scandal here. One of the VINs will get taken apart and we'll see what's inside, that should end the matter one way or another.

Your 0.5% net asset, by your own calculation, would be 15 million. That is very unlikely to be material.

Even 200 million is a bit iffy given how wide Tesla's earnings estimates are. 200 million would be only about 1% of its projected revenues this year and, unless it happens to be the difference between some milestones and a misstatement was clearly designed to manipulate (like to get an extra 0.01EPS to meet expectations or to get positive growth), it usually would not be deemed material (for most purposes).

That said, 200m in misstated assets/earnings for a firm with real inventory would raise red flags WRT to internal controls which raises a host of other legal issues, which I am almost 100% certain contributed at least partly to CFOs quitting Tesla. Nobody wants to talk to auditors all day long, especially when the ultimate decision maker has little interest in internal controls.

This problem isn't unique to Tesla. A **** ton of startups have conflicts between the founder and the "grown up" execs that venture capitalists bring in. It is just particularly pronounced with Tesla where Elon's ego is massive and the typical checks (shareholders) are members of Elon's cult.

Oh cmon, someone leaking lies to try and make the truth appear blurry, this cant be real


https://jalopnik.com/several-tesla-g...ing-1828393920

this might be were the series jumps the shark.

One season to many

The headlines are ridiculous but the article doesn't seem that ridiculous. Tesla has a pattern of coverups it seems. That's the third whistleblower now.
Funding secured?
I'm lmao at some hombres stealing tens of millions of copper from this disorganized crap show in the desert.

This is great stuff. >70% to be true imo given the bizarre paranoia emails and that this isn't that unusual among shady corporations.

Lots of analyst pumps out today. This is my favorite that sums up Tesla in a nutshell

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/16/tesl...ose-money.html
And there's the rub, as I've said all along. Beautiful base of the car, everything above the base ultra crap, cannot mass manufacture at a profit.

We now have three estimates of cost, defined purely as the cost of materials + labor:

- Unknown German company $28,000 at 10K/week
- Munro's teardown: $36,000 with high volume
- UBS: $41,000 (volume not mentioned)

Adding R&D and SG&A, which is huge since they pay for the all the dealerships and other infrastructure, breakeven cost is well over $45K I think.

Which is exactly the scenario I laid out earlier. Tesla survives for as long as it has sufficient demand for $50K+ cars, a fairly small market. Once they are gone, it dies quickly if it can't raise. They're already -$2.4 billion in net working capital, and suppliers are getting pissed off including Panasonic. It won't take much to tip this into bankruptcy.

Big shareholders probably paying these analysts to create positive sentiment so they can exit their positions.

Volume way down today

This latest whistleblower is seriously juicy stuff, and credible I daresay. I trust him more than Tripp.

Oh and on how Tesla were accused of wiretapping employee phones - Musk hired his head of security from Uber - Uber! - after the Uber wiretapping scandal and Waymo theft.

Saw this tweet containing a pie graph of the large TSLA shareholders:

https://twitter.com/MTrumbleson/stat...53539337383936

I can't vouch for the accuracy. For instance, it says that institutional investors own 57% of the shares while Yahoo finance says it's 63%. I assume it's roughly accurate though. If so, the top 6 holders (outside of Musk) own roughly a third of the company, which surprised me. I would think they're pretty nervous these days.

Many of the top 6 are comprised mostly of ETFs (these would also have to sell in the not-happening hypothetical go private). The lower institutional % is updated with recent 13F filings.

Funds have been reducing their holdings and dumping into true believer retail bagholders over the last few months. The heltoks and ChipRicks of the world.

Hmmm.....

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...e-early-2018-8

new NYT article, interview with elon, haven't read yet

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/16/b...iew-tesla.html

read it, didn't see anything really new. mostly him crying about how hard he has it, but stressing how devoted he is to the company and how he almost missed his brother's wedding because he's working up to 120 hour weeks. I guess it's his attempt to get in front of all the recent drama?

although it does mention the board is concerned about his ambien use, maybe that's new to some of the believers, dunno. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/872260000491593728

If you don't see this interview as tsla's way of firing him without firing him , then you can't really see the forest. He will most likely be entering some type of Rehab or meditation leave of absence Friday after market close.