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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

08-12-2018 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
See the part where I said "any reasonable bet"
Lol you are a complete waste of time, not interested sorry.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
08-12-2018 , 01:28 PM
TSLA wouldn't go bankrupt it would just be bought out eventually.
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08-12-2018 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EZX
TSLA wouldn't go bankrupt it would just be bought out eventually.
There are a lot of bearish scenarios that don't end in bankruptcy over the next 16 months, especially when the founder and his family control a decent portion of the company. If the conviction is so high that buying LEAPS in January 2020 is a good idea then should be able to get decent odds. I could careless about whether Tesla goes under, I think the polarization makes this a waste of time. People think Musk is going to jail? Good luck with that... There are so many bearish narratives floating around its hard to keep em all straight.
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08-12-2018 , 02:17 PM
There was already speculation that they couldn’t raise before this. Semi confirmed given the SEC confirmed they were looking into the tesla claims prior to the 420 tweet (probes reporter reported this months ago as well).


The likelihood they can raise now has to be less than 5% once the lawsuits start rolling in. If they can’t raise the likelihood of BK before Jan 2020 is probably around 80% as case and TS laid out the situation very well. To be clear this is all assuming they can’t get bailed out/go private, which I’m not sure who would take on a huge lot of this disaster now since I’m pretty sure everyone agrees funding was not “secured”.


ASAP, you are what I expect spurious to be after he reads reminiscences of a stock operator.

I don’t mean that as a compliment, but the book is definitely a good read.
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08-12-2018 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
There was already speculation that they couldn’t raise before this. Semi confirmed given the SEC confirmed they were looking into the tesla claims prior to the 420 tweet (probes reporter reported this months ago as well).


The likelihood they can raise now has to be less than 5% once the lawsuits start rolling in. If they can’t raise the likelihood of BK before Jan 2020 is probably around 80% as case and TS laid out the situation very well. To be clear this is all assuming they can’t get bailed out/go private, which I’m not sure who would take on a huge lot of this disaster now since I’m pretty sure everyone agrees funding was not “secured”.


ASAP, you are what I expect spurious to be after he reads reminiscences of a stock operator.

I don’t mean that as a compliment, but the book is definitely a good read.
Yawn and when the deal falls through, he does a capital raise and the stock doesn't collapse what will you say then? Bears are so sure the stock will reflect your fundemental thesis despite the evidence otherwise. Also you are long puts so obviously you agree with TS lmao. How are they doing btw?
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08-12-2018 , 03:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dicky
With TSLA going in the past few days from 130 to 110 and now back up to 120, it seems the market is a bit on edge about this stock. They report earnings on the 23rd, and with the incredible run up it's had in the past 3 months (40-->120) I get the feeling that if they don't blow people away this stock has the potential to crack pretty violently.

With articles coming every day for and against TSLA, I generally believe it to be vastly overblown stock. They are never going to be able to sell enough cars at $80k to be extremely profitable, and 5 years is a long time to wait with no profits for the time they supposedly have a $40k model that will ready for mainstream.

Thoughts?
TSLA closed at $120.25 (2.95x) the day this thread was posted, SPY* $167.95 (1.68x)/QQQ* $75.56 (2.38x) as well. (*without dividends) Given the market performance, you'd expect simply from a momentum standpoint TSLA to outperform. Still it's done what it's had to and held in there despite every attack possible from the other side. Proof is still on the bears, good luck.
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08-12-2018 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Still it's done what it's had to and held in there despite every attack possible from the other side.
It's hilarious that the lemmings buy the narrative that tesla is in the ****ter because the shorts are attacking
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08-12-2018 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Yawn and when the deal falls through, he does a capital raise and the stock doesn't collapse what will you say then? Bears are so sure the stock will reflect your fundemental thesis despite the evidence otherwise. Also you are long puts so obviously you agree with TS lmao. How are they doing btw?
I will say I was wrong and I miscalculated the bet and I will try and learn from it. What else would I do?
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08-12-2018 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
It's hilarious that the lemmings buy the narrative that tesla is in the ****ter because the shorts are attacking
You should read teslamotorsclub, gives you an insight of the cult mentality, it’s truly unreal
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08-12-2018 , 03:56 PM
Price is all that matters, rest is noise. Just going to enjoy the popcorn.
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08-12-2018 , 04:09 PM
TMC forums are just beyond what I could ever imagine. Lots of talk about setting limit orders at 1-2k for the coming squeeze, etc.

Emotionally it's kind of odd because reading it in real time is kind of infuriating, but as soon as a bad end comes, I'm not going to have a drop of satisfaction at their loss.

ETH clowns gloating at >1k was the same thing. Once it falls apart and they start posting about how they have to tell their wife or how all their dreams are now on hold/delayed forever it is sad reading. At least Tesla will have made something real.
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08-12-2018 , 04:41 PM
Saudi Fund in Talks to Invest in Tesla Buyout Deal

Spike to 400+, they sell their shares as shorts cover and the Saudis laugh all the way to the harem.
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08-12-2018 , 05:06 PM
Funny tidbit, but it was noted on twitter than tesla 10k notes they don’t carry much or any D&O insurance. Assuming they aren’t crazy, there is no way the board members aren’t hiring lawyers to figure out how to protect themselves from any liability from this. Already 2 lawsuits filed and likely a flood of them going to come in this week.

You have to file an 8-k within 4 days of a material event, Monday is 4 days from the tweet so my guess is once that timeline passes it’s going to open the legal floodgates.
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08-12-2018 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
ASAP, you are what I expect spurious to be after he reads reminiscences of a stock operator.

I don’t mean that as a compliment, but the book is definitely a good read.
I don't get how you can be such a loudmouth when you've been hilariously wrong on this stock. Why are the bears so self-confident when the narrative has anything but worked out?

One aspect that is a positive tell is the number of supposedly negative narratives. I've lost track, but they must be contradicting themselves by now.
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08-12-2018 , 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
I don't get how you can be such a loudmouth when you've been hilariously wrong on this stock. Why are the bears so self-confident when the narrative has anything but worked out?

One aspect that is a positive tell is the number of supposedly negative narratives. I've lost track, but they must be contradicting themselves by now.
While I don’t think you are a super educated guy, I do respect that you post opinions through the high and lows. If this crashes I suspect Heltok, Cuban b and others will never be heard of again. I suspect you might actually own being wrong. So I guess I think your ceiling is higher than asap, but right now he knows what a spread is which puts him ahead of you in terms of financial intelligence.
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08-12-2018 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
While I don’t think you are a super educated guy, I do respect that you post opinions through the high and lows. If this crashes I suspect Heltok, Cuban b and others will never be heard of again. I suspect you might actually own being wrong. So I guess I think your ceiling is higher than asap, but right now he knows what a spread is which puts him ahead of you in terms of financial intelligence.
I love when people resort to personal attacks in lieu of actual facts. No wonder you, stinkypete, TS are all in the same boat. Such bitter and miserable individuals... Forum warriors who constantly project their own insecurities. Like I said above price is all that matters, you can talk **** when you are right and you haven't been so far.
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08-12-2018 , 05:40 PM
ASAP17's entire shtick:

- "Stock price bro!"
- "Momentum bro!"
- "lmao what about that bad trade you did earlier!"
- "Straight options are for noobs; spreads bro!"
- "How's that working out for you" and other BPD passive aggression
- "I feel insecure after the smarter guys put me in my place so I'm going to do post 10 in a row to make myself feel better"
- (when he gets crushed after BDP-posting 10 in a row) "I don't really care this forum is dumb" or "you guys are miserable"

At least Spurious is earnest and discussion generating, this ASAP17 guy is a straight up dickhead/noise. Hasn't said a single useful thing in 10 posts that sheds light on the topic at hand.
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08-12-2018 , 05:43 PM
On cue proving my point, see ya guys.
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08-12-2018 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
I love when people resort to personal attacks in lieu of actual facts. No wonder you, stinkypete, TS are all in the same boat. Such bitter and miserable individuals... Forum warriors who constantly project their own insecurities. Like I said above price is all that matters, you can talk **** when you are right and you haven't been so far.
Miserable? My life is awesome.

Here is the thing , spurious is right that I don’t post a ton of content, mostly because this place is blocked at work so most is phone posting and rarely weekend posting (watching pga right now so posting some). I post which side I am on and a few lol things about tesla, I read and try and learn from the trading threads because I’m a novice. I am self aware about that. I am very financially literate but weak in trading knowledge.

TS posts legit content, I have no idea if he is some weirdo in his moms basement or anything but he explains his thought process, takes time to provide support for his stance and doesn’t deny when right or wrong. Also his insults are funny. Yet you call him a troll while you do nothing but watch what the biggest option trade was for the day and get butt hurt anytime someone makes fun of you. Then say **** like “how your puts doing bro” (actually not that bad btw, down overall but my biggest put bet is up 40%, the naked short has burned me a bit though, I’ll try to post more real time stuff but it’s hard for me having a high paying job that I can’t post here while at).

Spurious tries, he is just way behind in financial literacy. I used to dislike him but he has grown on me a bit.
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08-12-2018 , 05:56 PM
Yeah longer term far OOTM puts soared when Musk pulled his shenanigans. Nothing like crazy volatility to freak out the MMs.
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08-12-2018 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah longer term far OOTM puts soared when Musk pulled his shenanigans. Nothing like crazy volatility to freak out the MMs.
I feel like MM have made a killing off this shenanigans and tesla in general
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08-12-2018 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Saudi Fund in Talks to Invest in Tesla Buyout Deal

Spike to 400+, they sell their shares as shorts cover and the Saudis laugh all the way to the harem.
There's certainly room for solid PR. That article is a nothing though, particularly after the last insider said they have no interest in buying them out.

For the amount of money needed to buy part of Tesla, the Saudis could own any of a number of luxury or regular carmakers outright, at a P/E of <10 and many billions a year in profit, vs owning a portion of Tesla with no real control and the need for many tens of billions in continuous capital injection just to get to a fraction of the capacity of a single major. And that ownership would involve a completely debugged, massive scale, risk free investment that generates billions in profits and has >100 billion in intelligently deployed capital.

It's absurd^absurd, particularly as they're so desperate for cash they're risking the future saleability of Armaco at the moment by forcing it to buy a PIF investment so they have some cash to meet their existing commitments (the Prince has overextended the fund with promises to people like Softbank).

Going to be an interesting week. I'd feel good about holding weekly puts here. And maybe weekly calls. This is classic strangle territory. Depends on prices at open.
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08-12-2018 , 06:31 PM
The one thing I don’t understand is how the PMs of major funds can be holding here. Seems like a career killer if you are wrong.
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08-12-2018 , 08:00 PM
This whole thing is turning cult level creepy. Musk is running a PR and possibly security team against the social media shorts.

- Elon Musk personally called Montana Skeptic's boss, a prominent SeekingAlpha critic of Tesla, and got him shut down.

- The guy who was (legally) counting Tesla's daily production levels and posting them on Twitter suddenly stopped as of yesterday.

- A user I follow went private two days ago because someone from Tesla looked up her real life profile on LinkedIn and she got freaked out - there's no way to make that link without deep investigation.

- The same day Musk called that guy's boss, a bunch of shorts got their first suspensions ever on Twitter for things that didn't violate the rules but that were reported by someone. Some of the tweets were hundreds of days old - as if someone had gone through every one to find the worst and reported it.

- This guy, another prominent critic, just got doxed and shut down as of 10 minutes ago by a special use just created account called EricTheRoach (Eric is the guy's name)

https://twitter.com/EricTheRoach



Given Elon's personal call to the boss of a skeptic and his increasing paranoia and obsession with shorts, I think a lot of this is a team put together by him.

This is some pretty weird stuff, the stuff that crooks and cults and mentally unwell management of shady penny stocks do. And narcissists with coke habits under extreme pressure who feel personally persecuted and need to lash out.

Does anyone really think this would be happening if all is well and he has $50 billion in funding secured for an imminent buyout which will burn the shorts forever?

Last edited by ToothSayer; 08-12-2018 at 08:15 PM.
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08-12-2018 , 08:29 PM
elon musk fan fiction ITT
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