Fanatical Tesla bears and bulls don't differ that much. Emotionally driven gambling

Every expert agrees that Tesla makes money at 10k/week for $35'000, so you are making stuff up again despite knowing better (at least you should know better).

there's this one company expert, his name is elon musk, here's what he's saying:

they are not making 10k a week. they won't even be making 4,5k m3 per week next quarter, just read their own press release. elon himself said they will go bankrupt if they start selling the 35.000$ cars right now.

Sure I will give you that I was wrong on my timeline for FSD. As who will win the race we will see, the future is not set in stone yet. I still think that Karpathy's Software 2.0 strategy, ie make infrastructure for data first and then start to deliver lots of improvement might be a decent strategy. But Musk was clearly too optimistic about timeline. We will see. Maybe it is Waymo that is the investor securing funding for Tesla.

I will also point out that you did exactly what I said why I left the forum. You focus on winning the debate rather than winning at life. Maybe you actually believe that you are trying to win at life. If so I will just caution you that the life goal here is to help each other help each other to make better informed decisions. And by using inflammatory language etc you usually don't make people help you. And Gish galopp is not the best strategy for improving your knowledge on a topic.

I will leave the thread again, see you after the privatization is done maybe.

waymo just signed a contract to buy 20.000 jaguar ipaces a few months ago. not saying it's impossible, but i don't see why google would now try to take control of tesla.

/also the race for FSD actually is over. those ipaces will be used as commercial autonomous taxis within the year. the announcement video is somewhere here in the thread.

Ok, a few things here. Note the bolded? I know English isn't' your first language so I bolded the key words. Four facts:

- The "everyone" you mention includes two people - one a German company, one a guy who said it costs them $36K/car to build but that they're 30% gross profitable on the $55K version (basically agreeing 100% with me).

- Elon said they "die" at $35K below 5K/week volume.

- They're currently at 4K/week volume with one line + the tent. That rate hasn't moved in 1.5 months

- They've cut back all new line capex and plans to do new lines indefinitely. There is no path whatsoever to ramp to 10K. Which is utterly bizarre if Tesla is able to raise money.

Everything I said is a fact and correct. Yet you falsely claim I'm "making stuff up" when I make perfectly factual statements. WTF is going on in your head?

And I haven't done that? I laid out in exquisite detail the evidence why Tesla's FSD driving was provably in a horrible state. It was black and white if your brain functions. Seriously, go back and read our discussions about self driving from 2015/2016.

That you are too stupid/bullish/incredibly ignorant of software to understand the extremely solid reasoning I laid out with detailed evidence is not my problem. But it was a case of me "helping each other" far more than you have done anyone here with the nutjob bull cases you posted (you had them at billions in energy profit by now and hundreds of K Model 3), or the nutjob/5 year old's analysis you did of the state of Tesla's self driving software.

I can't imagine how stupid you have to be to not see it. Seriously go back and read the discussions we had 2-3 years ago with the benefit of hindsight. You'll see extremely solid evidence based reasoning on my part and you being completely wrong and completely off the reservation.

If that's not me "helping you", then what is?

I'm happy for you that you got lucky on Tesla despite getting your future fundamental predictions on everything Tesla related clownishly wrong. I genuinely am - I have no animus toward you. But the same thing happened with the worst .com stocks in 1999 - the mouth breathing ******s piled in on the crappiest of stocks for the worst reasons and made great money (IF they sold - most didn't) until it all collapsed. Tesla will be no different.

You made a horrible, horrible bet on your perceived Tesla future fundamentals and got lucky that Elon is a genius conman/stock manipulator willing to go to full on fraud, and helped by a raging tech bull market. It's that simple. That's not true for say, your bitcoin bet. But it's true for Tesla.

From 2-3 years ago:

- Autopilot turned out 100% like the bear predictions, perhaps even worse than the bear predictions. Tesla are dead last while competitors are putting out real world public autonomous hailing fleets in several cities consisting of 10s of thousands of cars.
- Musk's mass manufacturing (in)competence and timeline ended in the bottom quarter of the bear predictions
- Musk's cash burn and debt has ended up exactly like the bear predictions
- Model 3 ramp has ended exactly like the bear predictions
- Musk's alien dreadnought and "machine that builds the machine" turned out to be a comical failure - pulling out the robots + clownish 1970s level hand production in a tent.
- Solar roofs is now a proven lie, they didn't exist and still don't
- SolarCity has been massively scaling down since its purchase

What have the bears gotten right, fundamentally? Everything. What have the bulls gotten right? Nothing.

All that's left is Musk's superb confidence game, "look at the shiny object in the near future" frauds, cult following and stock manipulation and a raging tech bull. Had you bought Tesla on that, bravo. If you bought on future fundamentals, like you did, it was a total failure and you simply got lucky.

Not even true, but regardless, price has kept going up. Meaning, bears = wrong, bulls = right.

No, you don't even get that. Tesla has badly underperformed QQQ since 2014, even with the latest fraud bump that has the SEC investigating. Holding it was stupid. And if Musk is telling the truth then 10% upside at best.

So no, dude. Not even close.

Multiple reports on reddit and teslamotorsclub of multiple Tesla locations shut down today and deliveries cancelled suddenly. Some of the client managers are saying there are issues with some batches of cars. Passing along.

Even if the 420 offer is not just BS to burn the shorts, I don't see how going private at 420 vindicates the bulls, because even if you sell there you are still underperforming the market yoy.

It would certainly do more to vindicate the bulls than to the bears like tooth sayer or Chanos who were braying that Tesla is going to zero.

Doesn't this depend on parameters? Buying TSLA in Oct 2012 and selling at any point in 2018 has way outperformed QQQ or SPY.

Well the fundamental bear thesis would remain undecided for a while, but the thesis "it's wise to bet against Musk/good to short Tesla" would be pretty much destroyed if he managed to close a private buyout at $420.

100% glad to see you say this. Having said that it's retraced almost the entire pop, that's why I wanted to know from both sides what their plan was. Now what? This is where the overall market and Tesla underperforming coupled with a high short interest hurts the long term short trade. Sure it's lagged in recent years but that still doesn't make it a good trade especially as strong as the overall market and tech are. I thought it was telling how it couldn't make an ATH on this news, it got close but it's pretty much been straight down ever since. I'm not even sure the arb guys are really involved, doubting both the authenticity of the deal and price. Where is the 8-K?

Closing a deal at 420 is def a bear loss.


I feel like the tesla strategy is just be quiet and hope the sec goes away

The trade on the short side for now is , that Musk in fact tweeted the "funding secured" in a moment of jest and he will get punished by the SEC and it could open up a bunch of other real problems for him.

Anybody who wants to sell for 420 should sell for 380. Makes little sense to wait for possible 10% upside.

What about 350? Sell while they still have some value?

20% upside from 350 seems pretty good. And of course 10% upside in a few weeks or months is also quite attractive.

This is glorious. Tesla dumping even further on this. Musk's tweets stopped out all the dumber shorts for a big loss and brought out all the loonie bulls to gloat for a day before they got raped.

Seems almost a binary event here. Musk either has the goods and will prove it soon or he's a raving loon who committed billions of dollars worth of easily actionable stock fraud, and a bunch of big holders will dump.

Regardless of which side is true, the lack of appropriate disclosure alone - and lack of appropriate follow up, which caused the first ramp for 20% of the float and then this selloff, has him on the hook for billions in liability.

Yeah the funny part of Musk’s insane fraudulent $420 tweet, which he did out of desperation and hatred of short sellers, is that he improved the risk/return on shorting and blew up mega bulls with far ootm calls.

Apparently it was all a typo. Rather than 'funding is secured', musk meant to type 'funding isn't secured'.

All rather unfortunate.

It's only attractive with little to no downside.

Another day passes and no word from the board and not a peep out of Elon. No one has found or leaked the companies supposedly having "funding secured" for this buyout. No one on Wall Street has even heard of this supposed $80 billion go-private. No 8K has been filed.

The longer confirmation isn't forthcoming the more the big holders will get rattled I think. If funding isn't there then Musk has lost his mind and the stock should go well below $300.

Lol, board inquiring about financing from musk to determine if they should launch a "formal review" of his plan.


What a circus



Am i biased or does that look like legal posturing?