So as of this morning we find out he only started talking to the board last week about potentially going private. This is pure pump bull**** and a crazy dude feeling under siege by the shorts.

Out of all the things you don't believe what Musk/Tesla says, I am surprised you take this at face value.

It's a well established generally valid presumption that statements made against your interest are taken as true.

Life lessons aside, six board members including independent members signed a letter this morning stating it as fact - that Musk had first mentioned it to them last week. That's where this is coming from. I am unaware of Musk saying anything on the topic.

Musk is a manic depressive who is capable of anything at this point. In the future, he will engage in actions that put real pressure on him, and he will unravel quickly. He is getting away with it now, but he will have to face the music at some point, and when he really goes down for the count, it will be a sight to see.

I suspect that his excuse will be mental illness, and he will check himself into a facility. There is zero chance this ends without a complete manic meltdown that puts him in the cross hairs of some really bad consequences.

I think he's a grandiose narcissistic, not bipolar. Although there is some overlap in symptoms.

A sober take on yesterday from Harvard law professors and international financial reporters.

Did Elon Musk violate securities law?

Elon Musk Tweeted 'Funding Secured' For A Tesla Takeover; OK, Where Is It?

F**k knows how he got the funds but Musk ain't dumb he realizes he made a factual statement. He's not all in on Tesla either he has $20 billion+ in SpaceX. Don't see why risk everything by committing obvious securities fraud.

Why would he call a hero on Twitter a "pedo" without evidence?
Why would he tank the stock by calling an analyst's reasonable quetion "boring, boneheaded"
Why would he tell a massive lie that he has high confidence in making 5000 Model 3/week by the end of 2017, when he knew even 1/4 of that to be completely impossible due to, from his own words, problems with battery production that necessitated 6-9 months to redesign before volume production could resume?

Musk has lost it and is under more and more pressure. He thinks he is invincible and deals in weasel words enough to think he has his ass covered. But his judgment is obviously, looking at the above, more than a little off.

"Oops, I misspoke..."

/securities fraud

His day today would say how much he really screwed up,, if he has been in all day meetings with lawyers , he might have dug himself a hole.. If he is going on about his day today in his usual manner, maybe he did have some type of first talks deal in place.. im betting and hoping on the former.

He'd better come up with an 8-k and 50b bucks soon or that tweet might have cost them tens of millions just in legal fees.

with quite a few Tesla bulls and bears I suspect

In my view this is a good take TS, FWIW. Wouldn't you go long on out of the money puts?

Man, it must suck to be Elon right now. If he doesn't have it, I can't imagine how anyone could come up with 40b within 4 days, let alone from a party who is willing to lie for him and state for the record that they discussed the funding with him before the tweet.

Also had to be completed post mondays 10-q and improbable when 10-q filed (subsequent events), altho im not sure SEC really cares about much anymore


This was just too blatant

Is a bear actually lawsuit tracking? I've lost count of the number of lawsuits that Musk and Tesla will surely lose.

That's the least of Musk's troubles though. He's going to prison now!

So who here actually has money on the line regarding Tesla?

I'm still short at $343. Not a lot. This whole thing still smells bad to me so I'm going to wait and see how things shake out over the next few days.

I am irresponsibly short with 40% of my portfolio short TSLA in some way.
Since this is one of those once in a lifetime events in my opinion, even if it all goes up in flames, I won't even lose any sleep over it.

Just out of curiosity, anyone know what happens to options on the stock of a company that goes private? Do they just expire worthless if they're not exercised prior to the date of privatization?

I'm also short a good amount for me for 2018 trading.

Something about those "this is free money," "once in a lifetime opportunities" doesn't really tickle my fancy and make me want to hit enter.

I have no position. I like to jump on the obvious and I don't see anything obvious. That can change rapidly depending on news.

formula72, do the bankruptcy odds math though and tell me it isn't +++EV to be long puts, even if you're guaranteed to lose >90% of the time.

The way I see it, Tesla survives and even prospers if there is >250K unit demand for the $58,000 ASP they're current selling.
If that dries up in the next month or two (say, only 80K demand left at that price), it's curtains for Tesla. They've scaled back capex all the way out to Model Y and there is no ramp in place for M3. They're incredibly not raising capital which seems like business suicide. It all comes down to high end demand at which they pull enough profit at their current anemic volume to survive. It's impossible for Tesla to make a $35K car at this stage so if that's where most of the demand is they're done.

Experienced Tesla bear Robert Chapman, in an CNBC interview today, might give bears some hope. gl
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/08/0...-investor.html

And also hope he was in the "tweet" mode when he did "funding secured "