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Old 07-17-2018, 05:43 AM   #4201
Spurious
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla...profitability/

TS, anything to add?
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Old 07-17-2018, 06:03 AM   #4202
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

New way to evaluate a company

-take its stuff apart
-fap over the tech
-buy stock
-profit
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Old 07-17-2018, 06:57 AM   #4203
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Old 07-17-2018, 07:01 AM   #4204
Larry Legend
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I follow Elon related news fairly well, but not constantly, and I'm not any type of active trader.

That said, the whole short squeeze thing seemed very weird at the time. Now the way he's been acting recently, I feel like something major is about to happen. I'm not tapped in to know what it is, but is he having a hard time finding more money at the rate he needs to keep afloat?

If I didn't know any better I would think he's quite literally crumbling under pressure/losing his mind and is in a manic state.

However, he may feel like he's being attacked and backed into a corner by all the short sellers (potentially causing a cascading effect, losing access to credit at favorable rates) and lashing out and doing his PR dance little more than normal. He has always been a PR confidence guy type, the pedo thing is truly absurd but maybe it's just the result of all this pressure removing a filter from him publicly. People that know him privately may see no difference right now.
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Old 07-17-2018, 07:42 AM   #4205
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Spurious View Post
i got something:

Quote:
At first, they were highly critical, but they are now “eating crow” and admitting that the vehicle should be “highly profitable.”


why isn't it?

hint:
if GM or VW were building that car, it would be.

Last edited by BooLoo; 07-17-2018 at 07:47 AM.
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Old 07-17-2018, 07:49 AM   #4206
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Sure. It's really simple actually.

Car costs $36K to build according to Munro. Musk promised a $35K car. Game over.

Munro comes back and evaluates the super premium package, which adds maybe $2000 in costs while bringing in $15K more in money ($6000 for autopilot + Fully Self Driving fraud, for example).

Car now costs $38K to build and pulls in $53K = 30% gross margins.

Can Musk make money selling a cheap car for $50K? Sure. The question is demand at the $50K level. He promised a $35K car which is an entire other class. How big is $50K demand?

Munro also needs to sell his reports which go for $80K each, to parts suppliers, other auto companies. He spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to millions of dollars on teardowns. Calling the car "a piece of crap" doesn't sell reports - no parts supplier is interested and no other car company is interested in getting a report on a teardown of "the build quality of a 90s Kia" which is soon going bankrupt. Munro must have realized this when no one bought his report.

It's all pretty straightforward. Nothing has changed. The car is still incredibly poorly made, still costs $36K to build. Munro is just shifting the goalposts now.
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Old 07-17-2018, 07:58 AM   #4207
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Ok, got it. It used to be the truth, but now no longer is the truth. Given that it confirms the analysis by the German company, I wouldn't be skeptical at all if I was you.

Also, now he wants to sell reports, but whenever you mention a study then it's obviously completely objective.

Good god you are ****ing delusional. Do you not at all wonder why you've been so incorrect on TSLA so far?
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Old 07-17-2018, 08:10 AM   #4208
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

I saw the munro report and had a few questions

1) what changed? The parts? The pricing of the parts?

2) why the second study? Are they really delovering that materially different a car to customers?


3) do they factor in depreciation into this?
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Old 07-17-2018, 08:15 AM   #4209
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Ok, got it. It used to be the truth, but now no longer is the truth. Given that it confirms the analysis by the German company, I wouldn't be skeptical at all if I was you.
It's still the truth. Nothing has changed. He's just evaluating the profitability of a $50K car now. This isn't hard.

Munro tore down and evaluated the whole thing and found it crap and horribly designed. Now it's not? Nothing has changed in the car.

Quote:
Also, now he wants to sell reports, but whenever you mention a study then it's obviously completely objective.
No. I'm skeptical of everything unlike you. One guy who's changing his mind 180 degrees for headlines vs a billion dollar research company that does this every year and doesn't reverse 180 degrees? One is suspect, the other isn't.

Quote:
Good god you are ****ing delusional. Do you not at all wonder why you've been so incorrect on TSLA so far?
What have I been "so incorrect" on, dickhead? I've crushed the trading of this long and short. I've been right about autopilot, Musk's personality, Musk's competence, their incompetence at car building, their ability to meet any of their deadlines, Tesla energy, solar roofs. Everything, in fact. The only thing I've been wrong on is calling it done when Apple entered the scene. It dropped $100 after that and I recommended cover short/go long when it hit $150 and Apple had abandoned their car building plan. Horrible call, making 30% profit. And thinking it would be $150 by now - I honestly didn't count on Musk committing actionable securities fraud. Had he not lied about Model 3, the stock would have tanked. I might be a couple of months late on that $150 2 year target. The walls are closing in on Musk, which is why he calls strangers who criticize him pedophiles on Twitter with no evidence.

The idea you have in your delusional head that I've been "so incorrect on Tesla" is pure ridiculousness on your part. It's a narrative you tell yourself because you can't deal with the reality that you've been a self owning dickhead this entire thread, and everyone is laughing at you.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 07-17-2018 at 08:21 AM.
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Old 07-17-2018, 08:20 AM   #4210
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

You are seeing things everywhere that simply do not matter or do not exist. You have not been right on the things you've listed. You have zero evidence for that.

When is the point in time when your thesis that TSLA is worth $0 materialize? It hasn't so far. That makes all the arguing from your end laughable. If you give a timeline, we will find out whether you are right or not. So far, your trading has obviously been not as good as you like to think - probably worse than a coin flip actually.
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Old Today, 12:09 PM   #4211
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

Quote:
Tesla shares fall after Needham downgrades to sell, citing possible increase in Model 3 cancellations
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/tesl...ssible-in.html

Quote:
"Based on our checks, refunds are outpacing deposits as cancellations accelerate," wrote analyst Rajvindra Gill in the note Thursday. "The reasons are varied: extended wait times, the expiration of the $7,500 credit, and unavailability of the $35k base model."


"In August '17, TSLA cited a refund rate of 12%. Almost a year later, we believe it has doubled and outpaced deposits. Model 3 wait times are currently 4-12 months and with base model not available until mid-2019, consumers could wait until 2020," Gill added.
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Old Today, 03:52 PM   #4212
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Re: TSLA showing cracks?

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Originally Posted by Gin 'n Tonic View Post
Although I agree with his sell rating, I think this is a very odd line of logic to arrive at the sell rating.

There is one relatively small group of people who are willing to put down a deposit on a car they have never seen and cannot test drive, that they will not receive for months to years..

There is another (much larger) group who may be willing to buy the car once it is available for test drives and available in a short time frame (1-3 weeks). Once the reservation list has all either bought cars or gotten a refund, then Tesla will have cars available to test drive and will have cars already built or that can be built on a short timeframe. IF (and that is a big IF) the model 3 is the best electric car value available when that time comes, they will get plenty of demand.

For me the reason I think tesla is a sell is because I don't have confidence that the model 3 will be the best car at that time. But if it is, I don't think demand will be a problem and I don't think some details about reservation cancellations really change the probability of it being the best at that time.
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