I'm curious if there is a time where the public sees him for what he actually is.

I'd like to think that if tesla loses 2/3 of its market cap that his magic image erodes pretty quickly, but then again the wheels would still be churning and his twitter wouldn't go anywhere.

11m shares before noon

People would learn about extradition laws, which is a positive imo

Bump for pinkmann, despite the fact that the stock HAS stayed in a range for years... Even the longest term options are as expensive OTM as you will find in the market. Decay is your friend as a trader, it doesn't have to be the enemy. You can spend even less outlay if you have margin to employ ratio spreads.

I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and only buy puts. If IV is so mega high then I'll just wait for time decay to do its thing and hope volatility falls, and if the stock mega tanks then I'll kick myself and flame 2p2

In all seriousness I'm assuming there is no rush since 5k/week is so recent, and if it turns out to be unsustainable it wont show for a while.

Yeah because being results oriented (even half joking as I think you intend) instead of figuring out the best risk reward is a solid mindset! You should definitely go ahead and buy some way OTM puts, good luck!

Lol asap, how old are you?


I must admit, i always pass judgement on people who put pics of themselves in their avatar as being dumb, but the hit rate is so high

Who cares? Has nothing to do with anything we're talking about. You both asked questions and I answered, thanks for reminding me what a waste of time this place is.

Either buying OTM puts is +EV or it's not.. whether you do it alone or as part of a spread by also selling a lower strike price, doesn't change that fact. So you can't simultaneously claim that the bear put spread is a good bet but simply buying puts is not.

Risk/reward is a separate discussion that depends on a lot more variables (risk tolerance, net worth, available capital, etc).

You are a huge dbag about it for no reason, i admit im a novice investor

Also you didnt even answer the question

This, was going to post that ones personal situation can change his/her approach to risk, but you said it way better



Asap you are a tool

You are a novice investor that is using options? Heh, good luck.

It completely changes the fact lol and yeah my argument is structure related not whether this is a good play or not to be short.

Im not market making or writing condor spreads or any of the other strategies that i know im not advanced enough to execute profitably

But betting a short thesis using puts and calculating risk return isnt all that complicated

Yeah all that is fine and I get you limit the risk to what you outlay, I still think that's literally the worst strategy you could use in this name. I'd rather buy upside calls than do what you're doing lol. TS flips short term puts (supposedly) and that's really what you should be doing if anything. Beyond that it is a MUST to take advantage of what the options market is giving you, as TS said even a potential bankruptcy doesn't mean the stock would go to zero. There is literally zero reason to own longer term OTM puts, whether you want to express a short or hedge a long position. Short the stock, sell call spreads, buy the debt etc do not ignore how much conviction both sides have here and buy puts outright that are likely to decay as we keep trading in this range.

This fascination with time decay is silly.

Options are just sports bets on outcomes. That's all. If you think Tesla is 90% to go bankrupt and you're getting 6:1 for Jan 20 $200s (or 10:1 for the 100s), that's better than some cuck spread where you get 3:1 after paying the large bid-ask spread that Tesla has. There are plenty of scenarios/probabilities where the 3:1 spread is the dumb play. If you think Tesla is 25% to go bankrupt then the spread is plain losing money. For bankruptcy on the 100s you only need to be right 11% of the time at current prices. That's a way lower bar than 30% for a spread.

There isn't really an argument against any play except for the probabilities of the play. My arguments against straight long term puts way out of the money are based on my priors for bankruptcy vs other outcomes...I think there's probably a way, in desperation, that they can find to raise to keep going/pay suppliers/stay out of bankruptcy for another 6-12 months, so I think the far down moves below 100 are low probability and you should capture a wider range of probabilities.

ASAP seems obsessed with spreads. I don't see the fascination and I don't think they're better than other options - in fact given that you're paying double the substantial spread, they should be worse. Work out your priors, pick what expresses the bet best. I've never come across a situation in 5 years of doing this where a spread is the best play. It's what you learn in Options For Morons books/websites, but there are a lot of reasons they're not the best idea.

Tesla 10xd in a year and has been working off that move for the last 4+, despite a lot of push/pull its right in the middle of that range. Is it lagging the market and tech during that period? Absolutely but it hasn't broken down and that's worth pointing out. It's range bound this year and since 2014, where is the evidence that's changing soon even with the last couple of days? It's a good short term trading vehicle but it's still tough to even get that direction right.

You use spreads because they are a higher probability play and that's my point about it trading in a range where although there has been a lot of short term volatility its still in this longer term consolidation.

Sure if you think it's going straight to zero, have at it.

I don't really find technical analysis interesting on something like this. Musk has been doing donkey carrot for a long time, which in part was possible because capital needs <<< raising ability via inflated market cap, but the game's up - he needs cash and he needs mass manufactured cars that don't suck. The proposed bet is on him failing at one of those, and I think the prior technicals of the stock matter not at all when betting on those scenarios.

There's never been a credit crunch/moment of truth before in this company/stock, at least since it's been public. They squeezed through in 2012 I think it was when they had a similar crisis, but since the first run up they've always had ample access to funds for a variety of reasons (zero interest rates, low capital requirements, low volume vs mass manufacturing, higher level of trust) no longer present.

Lol and with that I'm really out of here, have a good one guys. Gl in your trades.

Elon going full wacko on twitter right now

Nylon toobz

Good publicity

Wanted to start a discussion about the one thing that in my mind Tesla has done really well, which is their charging network. Without a good highway charging network, all current electric cars are essentially commuter cars, even the ones with 250+ mile range. The map above is the current state of Tesla chargers. Each red dot is an active charging station with between 4 and 40 charging stalls. These are very high speed charges (100+Kw) The cones are stations under construction, and the blue dots are places where a permit has been approved but construction has not started.

I recently did a 2,200 mile round trip from Portland OR to Yellowstone and back, and the charging network performed flawlessly. I have also done dozens of shorter trips (300 - 800 mile round trip) over the past 2.5 years and had uniformly good experiences.

Right now no other car maker has any sort of network. If you want to use your electric car for longer trips and you are considering a model 3 vs a Bolt, or a Model X vs an iPace, you have to choose the Tesla even if you like the other car better.

It seems other carmakers are hoping for a 3rd party solution, but I think this is unlikely to happen quickly. Sure, charging stations in high use areas around big cities might go up quickly. But the chargers in middle of nowhere that you need to get from 1 part of the country to another are rarely used and it would be hard for anyone to open one unless it is part of a nationwide network strategy. It has taken Tesla about 5 years to build out this network.

How do you see people with electric cars from other manufacturers doing long road trips 3-5 years from now?

I could give more details about how a long road trip with an electric car works if anyone cares.

would be very interested in hearing more about your road trip