link to Musk fundraising?

all the things you list save cash, which you say is the issue....

It's a TMZ source or some other hilarious gossip website. He doesn't understand that Musk does not want to add more equity to not further dilute himself.

Lol, holy ****, spurious, please, you seem like a decent dude, but you have a fatal flaw and that is that you appear to lack the ability to learn. Musk has raised for years and years, yet despite massive evidence in TS favor, you literally make something up about what EM wants despite him never stating anything of the sorts. That is really weird.

He has said that they don't need to raise capital, because he does not want to raise equity. The rest is quite difficult to raise for Tesla at the moment.

Musk has signed a significant package that gives him a significant equity boost if he hits various targets. He only cares about his stake in Tesla and he does not want to see it shrink.

Musk will learn that he will not be able to go on for this forever and need to raise equity. This will be to worse conditions than they are today, but he is obsessed with this.

Possible Model 3 demand spiral.

Current Toyota owner perspective:

-Status value of a Tesla for only 35k was impossible to resist, hype and make believe numbers created a huge list of reservations. A high status car for 35k is a reality that doesn’t and can’t exist.

-Poor reliability due to design and production limitations along with limited service availability due to lack of buildout means the M3 offers a far worse ownership experience than people who buy Toyota want.

-Negative press and word of mouth, along with concern over Tesla’s viability, erode the status value.

-Stretching the budget to the real price (50k+) with these downsides isn’t realistic for these people, they simply don’t have the money.

Current BMW owner perspective:

-Tesla cannot offer a status boost, the price is the same.

-Everything besides the EV drive is a downside

-Limited upside for a Tesla means the downsides will pick off these buyers who can actually afford the car

I am looking for a case where things implode soon. If demand falters that cuts off financing totally? and their position is so stretched they collapse. Risks here seem like:

-Some terrible government bailout somehow, maybe tying in spacex or who knows what

-China clowns massively overpay before a bankruptcy to get the brand and IP

-They are able to raise using some other method

Agree that those are the 3 largest downside risks

Not that sure how to evaluate them:

-Some terrible government bailout somehow, maybe tying in spacex or who knows what

>Less than <5%? Tesla failure isn’t 1% of the total impact (local dealerships, manufacturing base, consumer finance, defense contracting reserve, national pride, exports) that a big 3 failure would have sparked. Trump administration and republican congress locked up with other things seems unlikely to act.


-China clowns massively overpay before a bankruptcy to get the brand and IP

>Kind of a wildcard here as well. Would Elon sell it all for 40$? a share to avoid bankruptcy and lose control?


-They are able to raise using some other method

>?% ATM would be hard to raise enough. Bond markets are close to or almost closed. Even 3rd rate investment houses would be reluctant to underwrite anything. Any corporation wouldn’t get a investment past governance, seems like it would need to be some billionaire spending his own money, not sure how many of these are out there.

which tsla puts should i buy? or is it too late? 2020 seems much more expensive compared to say, netflix..

A good insight into how Teslas are shoddily designed and made. It's an interesting specific look at one part, and back up Munro's teardown assessment that everything above the battery in a Tesla is pure ****, with the build quality of a shoddy 90's Kia (his words, not mine - i.e. at the low end of the industry 2 decades ago).

"As you know, you're not a true Model S owner until your car has been on a tow truck, or one of the door handles has developed an issue where you can't enter the vehicle"

It has multiple designed-by-someone-of-Elon's-low-intelligence problems with it.



Warranty cost and backlog alone are going to sink them making shoddy **** like this. You can get away with it on a $100K car like the Model S as you have a lot of juice to play with and most of your customers are forgiving rich alpha testers with second cars; it's pure death in mass manufacturing and with volume non-beta customers.

I see the last couple of days as sell the news + a big player getting out. It's not the apocalypse - yet - unless the seller is one of the huge holders.

Personally, I'm still trading short term. There's plenty of juice there, more than long term at the inflated prices and the uncertainty about the actual date.

Interest update on BrakeGate, including cocaine paranoia and going after negative journalists from Musk.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1014811835017584640

Also, this is too funny not to post. Billionaire "you must work on Saturday or be written up" Elon sees himself as the 10 year old victim of mean birthday tweets:



SenorKeed is right, I called peak cuck way too early. We're going to full meltdown/mental hospital level as Tesla falls apart I think.

Nov 18 or june 19 otm


Nov 18 because they boxed themselves in this time to be profitable in q3 and the slashing of jobs still might not get them there. Plus, by this time the consumer issues w m3 should be known.


June 19 because you are right behind the 900m of bonds due in march


Also just a naked short w a loose stop wpuld work


I have jan 20s too but they are too expensive now imo

How far OTM?

I'd like to load up on june 19 or jan 2020 puts, but I have no idea what to expect of the stock price when the **** hits the fan. 100, 50, 20, bankrupt?

Obviously if we think its going bankrupt we just buy the most OTM puts, but that sounds too good to be true.

You shouldn't be buying puts without a corresponding move, seems like a terrible bet to go directional without taking advantage of how juiced IV is down the chain and especially OTM. Short term for flips, ok but medium and longer term doing it without at least spreading it out is a bad play imo.

Even if you think it's going bankrupt, buying the most OTM puts seems terrible when you look at how pricy they are. Would much rather be selling them.

Correction, Nov puts dont exist, didnt realize this until i went to roll some j20s today


Wonder why that is?

What am I missing? Your highest roi is the most OTM if bankrupt, no?

I'm not interested in trading high IV, I just want a long term position to enter and let it sit.

You wonder why they don't have a strike for every month past a few months out? Lol and you are trading options?

I prob wouldnt listen to me, but i stay around the main numbers where liquidity is (50/100/150) but j20 is so expensive now that i dont think any are worth it.


I have a pretty big position there but im just holding since its way up, might trim


I really think nearer term OTM puts, 50 or 100 in sept/oct/dec 18 and march 19 with a high risk high return plan that they cant raise


If they raise, prob get out asap, also not using spreads but thats just me


Easiest thing is prob just a naked short

How and when do they get there, the amount of extrinsic premium required for these bets makes that statement highly suspect yeah.

There are a range of options that don't include bankruptcy. I've been strongly arguing against the 50s for example. Even in bankruptcy they aren't necessarily zero, and there a range of possibilities where Tesla goes to $100 in a reckoning as their production sucks and M3 has serious issues, but they find a way to raise or find a big private investor stupid enough to back a few billion more (Elon is a genius at getting private and public money to back him).

So I think you're way better off going a much higher strike, the return isn't much lower (maybe half) for bankruptcy but you collect a much larger range of possibilities, some very likely.

That said I'm not making this trade. I'm still trading very short term news and runs. For an intermediate approach, one thing one of the traders here is doing is taking monthly puts each month, far OOTM ($200 or so). That's working out very well for them so far.

Yep!

Im a novice with a thesis

If it werent for the Elon margin call i would agree, honestly think from 100 its nearly straight down

Tesla has traded in a range for years now, this idea that bulls capitulate on a story or even a series of stories seems highly questionable to me despite my own personal feelings on Musk and the company.

I think the 50s are not a bad play because that is still ~7b in marketcap for what is in reality a structurally bankrupt company.