I was just wrong then. I must have been remembering data from early phases of Model 3. Looking at the data posted looks like it's more like 10% per quarter steady or about 40-50% CAGR.

That makes 7000 a big reach but they'll still probably still get to 5k (by cannibalizing X and S if need be).

Frankly I think that's enough to keep the show going.

We all have brain farts. And yeah 40-50%/year is closer to it. That said:

Model S/X are flat to in-decline
Model 3 is experiencing asymptoting at this stage, not exponentiation. They have two lines and aren't building another that I know of - they have no spare capital. In fact, their existing lines were so poor at improving that they had to build a makeshift line outside.

Still, I recognize that's special pleading an we can simply take the upper end of 40-50%/year if you want. That gets us to 9K/week total by July 2019, or 7K Model 3, assuming current sustainable run rate is 6000/week, which seems reasonable to generous.

IMO their survival to mid 2019 depends on the ability to raise substantial capital and the level of demand for $50K+ Model 3s. Two substantial unknowns.

Based on this company's track record, those two are not unknown.

In the last 6 months, Musk has been desperate to raise capital and has progressively wound down capex and research and avoided paying suppliers just to survive, greatly hurting his business and future growth. He's been reduced to building tents in the carpark with scrap to grow production enough to meet even delayed targets. There is no sane reason to avoid raising under these conditions except for the inability to raise. That is not a good sign for the ability to raise capital going forward.

Demand for $50K+ Model 3 is completely unknown. We know that S+X demand has topped out at 100K/year. The base model is $70K and is substantially superior to a Model 3. So demand is certainly far from unlimited.

A $28K car with subsidies (i.e. the demand we have some data on) is not related to a $50K car. They're entirely different price categories and one is far smaller than the other.

speaking of 28k$ car with subsidies:
they most likely hit 200k cars at the end of june. this would put them on the timer. next quarter will then be the last quarter US buyers get the full 7500$ tax credit, 3750$ from october till the end of march and 1875$ from april to september 2019.

Luck helps I assume beating the stock market is always this easy!?

Thanks - I'm definitely owe you a beer or two! I've enjoyed reading your posts on this subject for a long time.

As I have a brand new account I had to set a guaranteed stoploss and a stop-win, I've now re-set that to 100. I'm very far from an expert at this obviously, but I imagine it will take a long time for public perception of Tesla to fully unravel. The fees for holding my position long term are pretty reasonable, so I'm just going to wait (probably several months at least) and see how it goes. Trying to avoid checking the price all the time lol

I was actually wondering whether Trump would give Elon more cash to keep going if the cashflow situation becomes super critical? Seems like about the only person who'd be likely to supply significant additional capital in these circumstances, I think the public outcry will be substantial if/when Elon admits they need yet more cash to continue increasing production.

Good eye on this back in May. Doug Field confirmed permanently gone as of today. Replaced by the VP of monetization from Snapchat as VP of engineering.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-...nce-1530561319

Does Elon have the nerve to lie if they hit 200k on accident?


He does right?

they can't really lie about that, because people need to register their cars.

but i had one of those brain lags following this story apparently makes you have from time to time. meant to say that they most likely delayed number 200000 to the beginning of q3. so you can push those timeframes out by three months.
so starting january, tax credits will most likely start to go down.

that would be one of my reasons for the tent and the opening up of orders for everybody. next 6 months are gonna be crucial. starting next year they will have a handicap against all new EVs coming to market until the others reach 200k.

There is a lot of crowd sourced data on TMC saying they passed it, also inside Ev seems to agree

doesn't really matter all that much if they did this quarter or not, it's inevitable that they do (if they are going to survive), so it is just going to accelerate the loss of the subsidy by three months. Who cares.

Tesla's production number a confirmed fraud I think:

A shouting Elon Musk and changing rules: Inside Tesla's Model 3 sprint

I've heard the latter said often - that the paint department has a limit of 5000 cars/week (in total, including S & X and 3000 M3/week). This appears to be both a regulatory and practical limit for that shop. Basically, they need a second paint shop to go higher than 5000/week total, which puts their steady state M3 at 3000/week.

Basically a ****show/fraud. For the bulls who are wondering why the stock could possibly have yesterday's volume selling after hitting this fraudulent milestone. They couldn't hit the target six months late even with a shoddy makeshift tent line outside producing 1000 of the cars, pre-making parts and painting, and disrupting the S&X lines. Think about what that means going forward.

Also, no. Cannibalizing the S & X is suicide. Unlike the Model 3 they can actually make a profit on these - they're sold for outrageous sums ($80K - $130K = 2-4x Model 3 revenue per S or X) on established cost optimized lines.

To cannibalize the S + X lines like they did last week is insanity that costs them large sums of revenue, profit and cash flow. 2000 S + X is superior in all three of those dimensions than 5000 Model 3. A single S or X is worth 10x a $45K 3 in its contribution to net positive cash flow.

Which brings up another issue - if the decline in demand for the long-in-the-tooth S & X continues, they are in big trouble as well.

Even though I think it's overvalued, I had a lot of sympathy for Musk and Tesla

After reading that article, I think tesla is a highly toxic environment and hopefully this ceases sooner than later.

This is what happens when you get obsessed with silly goals that don't benefit anyone.

Ever heard of the triple P bottom line? People, Planet, Profit. TSLA is negative on each one of those.

I really hope no investor puts another single dime in this company, at least until Elon is gone and the whole company is restructured.

It's one thing to burn out rocket fanboys at spaceX; burning out factory workers really pisses me off.

Tesla price action incredible - looks like a major holder dumping...hard to explain the action otherwise at this volume, this is beyond simple "sell the news". Sadly I had none short, didn't see this coming. d7o1d1s0 crushing it

Musk tried hard to trick market again with production burst but didn't fall for it this time. I think this is it now, big dump to $100 or so...

I think the stock will tank as well. It will go to a bottom and afterwards never look back. Some of the posts on this page are almost sounding like a conspiracy theory.

There's no way this isn't a large holder dumping at nearly 50 points off highs in two days. The fanboys were sated by the result/"achievement". Now this from a whistleblower:

Tesla Compared To Theranos After Report Musk Halted Critical Brake Test To Boost Output

Everything sounds like a conspiracy theory when facts don't matter and you listen to your own conceptions of Elon as a hero over reality. Recall your take on the executives leaving? Doug Field just taking a break to be with his family for a while? Another point against you as of yesterday.

As for what they did to juice production, this isn't even controversial, let alone a conspiracy theory. It's obvious to everyone who doesn't worship Elon Musk that they did a variety of dodgy actions to juice the numbers.

I mean, forget everything employees are saying and use simple logic.The quarter production numbers can't be faked and they made 28,578 Model 3s according Tesla's own numbers provided yesterday.

But one quarter ago, they claimed they'd reach a run rate of 2500/week. Now they're at 5000, apparently. But 28,578/13 weeks = 2200/week for the quarter they supposedly started at 2500/week and were ramping up to 5000/week. Please explain?

If you take out the last desperate run for 5000, they made 1950/week the other weeks. On Musk's own numbers. After claiming a run rate of 2500/week at the start of the period and ramping up.

Understand? It's an open and shut case that the 5000/week is bull****, even if we ignore the makeshift line and the employee claims. Just like the 2500 from last quarter is now proven bull****.

You're just balls out crazy on your views at this point, man. Everyone is laughing at you for not seeing the obvious.

I just thought of an easy way for Tesla to pick up some easy revenue. Put a camera crew in there and sell the rights to a reality tv show. The whole story is fascinating.

I don't know what will happen to the company but the people I know that are in upper income brackets salivate over Teslas. These are people that would normally buy Mercedes or BMWs.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

As a fan of Tesla's cars with no stake in the company's current financial predicament, should I hope the company goes bankrupt, the rights to their cars get bought by another company and then manufactured properly?

An asset purchase by another company would make sense


Also w 12m shares trading on a short trading day it has to be new supply, someone big is dumping

Yeah it's absolutely a big holder dumping, and in haste as well. Moving well over a billion dollars.

You construe this alternative reality in which the difference between 2'500 and 5'000 cars matters that much. You miss all the aspects of Tesla that are working really, really well. You are still set on Tesla going bankrupt, because they can't meet demand. This is not going to happen.

They will have a difficult 18 months, but afterwards you will see how little it meant that they've missed their own forecast by 1-2 years.

It matters if you are running into the brick wall of a liquidity crunch. All the evidence suggests they are. They are billions behind on paying creditors, have scaled back capex including Model 3 line capex, and are building makeshift hand lines in a tent from scrap. Why the **** are they doing this? Explain this to me if they have access to credit.

Musk is reportedly going around the world begging for investments (dismiss this if you want - it is just a credible rumor). There is no credible reasons why they're majorly hurting their business scaling back capex and future expansion, injuring relationships with suppliers, mortgaging the very last of their factory a couple of weeks ago, building a tent hand line, unless they are unable to raise.

Such as? They're far behind production goals, squeezing their staff hard, creating makeshift open air tent hand lines out of scrap. S & X have plateaued. What precisely is going well?

So what is your thesis? That while there is large demand they will be able to get financing? All the evidence seems to be against that. There is no reason for what Tesla are doing except they cannot get more money.

If they can become at least semi competent at mass manufacturing cars and can get 10 billion in fresh capital in flowing in the next 12 months and there is actual large demand for a $45K Model 3 and they can turn a profit at that price, then perhaps they survive to Model Y, which will be launched into a rich environment of compelling, cheaper competitors (the Jaguar iPace is the first of many Tesla killers that all reviewers - including those who love the Model X - say is better than Tesla at a lower price)