Using the rate they’re going at would be using 2018 projections for the second half of the year. You’re being just as anal as they are. Who cares?

TS defends his stupid sources once again. He said "the majors" are selling more than a million cars per year. This was the original statement. He then proceeds to claim that China sells 650k p.a. currently. I don't know a single Chinese car company that can be considered a major, can you?

Arguing with TS is useless, we have to do it for the people like syndr0me who believe everything he says and use it as the universal truth.

BYD is definitely a "major" in the context of EV's.

What? The original statement said noting about the majors. Here it is:

I was talking with someone else about whether Tesla was moving forward the car industry - I pointed out that they were a mere fraction of total EVs sold as other car companies (i.e. not Tesla) are already making a million EVs a year growing exponentially, so Tesla are a small fraction of batteries, electric drivetrains, etc...nothing they do matters much in term of mass manufacturing EVs. The industry (i.e. other car makers) would look the same without them.

You and Trolly then came in like rejects from special school and made a huge fuss about a totally uncontroversial statement, calling me a liar, etc. Now you're wasting time debunking something I didn't even say.
No bro, you are just brain damaged. Like for real. I can't for the life of me fathom what the **** is wrong with you and Trolly or why you'd tard up the thread arguing a completely uncontroversial, factual sentence. You've both lost your minds.

I disagree on a lot of TS posts about political items but for Tesla everything he has said has been functionally on point imo, even if some of the trades are in the red as of now.


Spurious, you are part of this weird new phenomena of "i think it, therefore it must be true" type of person that is becoming more and more common. Its very weird and im not really sure whats causing it, maybe the internet just makes me notice it more, no idea.

Everyone can disagree as much as they want with me, but I am exactly not in the camp "I think therefore it's true." I am trying to rely as much on facts as I can. Having a discussion about future activity is necessarily opinion-based.

It's typical TS, he makes **** up and then pretends it never happened.

syndr0me, the majority of the stuff he has ever said turned out to be false. You are just happy someone confirms your wrong bias.

Dude, you're confusing discussions. That is from two weeks ago and includes hybrids. You came up with the pure insane, deranged view that said this:

To which I responded that the majors are already making a million EVs a year. Their lines are already producing the large batteries, the electric drives, all the circuitry....1.9 million will be made this year.

The notion that the majors can't switch is just insane, frankly. They already have and at scale. The Leaf is producing and selling 100K cars/year profitably, cheaper than Tesla. You're just in fantasy land bro. The notion that they can't make a far simpler design than an ICE car is just hilarious.

Even beyond that, your analysis is whacked out. What will happen is that EVs will increase while ICE continues. It's not some either/or where they need to shift their entire strategy immediately. It's not like they're shutting down their factories and having to switch. They're building parallel lines. And already doing so successfully with 1.9 million cars/year. Majors make everything from EV racing prototypes to hybrids to pure BEVs, and they do so easily and successfully.

You have some weird fantasy in your head where Tesla are this big disruptor and the majors are finished because they can only work according to the old model. Car manufacturing doesn't work like that, and neither does the integration of new technology. Car makers are more like a conglomerate of disparate factories and model-specialized lines, not one big monolith. I'm seriously embarrassed for you man, your lack of first-principles understanding of anything is just amazing.

There's no possible way to take that from this thread. I'm well over 80% correct in this thread, including opinions that were contrary to all mainstream and expert views like where Tesla were on autonomy (we know now: far behind).

You live on another planet man. You're the Karl Pilkington of this thread. Other people disagree with me but they do so in a way that's at least partly sane and connected to reality.

I don't understand what's so controversial about what is being said here. Bolded is the point being made, not bolded is a statement that isn't incorrect. It seems like people are misreading it and arguing something else entirely. Why does it matter so much that he exclude cars like the Toyota Prius? It's not an ICE. It doesn't even have an ICE. It's irrelevant to the point being made? Is it that those of you taking umbrage with it think he's supposed to discuss pure electric vehicles only? I can see a point being made there, but it doesn't make sense to me to take note of the market gravitating from pure ICE to pure EV without including what I would think are relevant indications of the cars in between that reflect how the full auto market is morphing.

I don't look at Tesla and think it isn't competing with ICE...nor that it isn't competing with hybrids. The point is the overall market is gravitating towards what Tesla only makes and Tesla basically has a monopoly over this niche market but still has yet to turn a profit with that in mind. Soon that market will be crowded with...all the majors.

The competition is already here. The iPace(just out) is a better car on every metric at a much lower price than the Model X. Musk fanboys should read some reviews.

It's gg Model X. The monopoly is over and Model X sales will decline quite noticeably as a result.

The Leaf is $7K cheaper than even the fantasy $35K Model 3, let alone the current one which sells for $50K. It's selling 100K cars this year. And that's just the opening bid - EVs become mainstream viable next year at the lower end of the price range. The 2019 Leaf out in a few months has fantastic specs.

Tesla's monopoly is done for. They had a shot if they didn't mess up the 3. Now they're winding back capex due to their bizarre cash squeeze/inability to raise, which is pushing the Y out by at least a year - not to mention even the nearer future 10K/week Model 3 production, which the extreme capex cuts have pushed out for maybe a year as well.

By that time, there will be many compelling pure EVs at many price points, with everything nicer than Tesla at a better price. Tesla don't have a shot any more.

TS,

you couldn't list the majors that add up to a million. That same post has a screenshot of the February electric vehicle sales in Europe.

The majors are hardly selling a million EVs per year and that includes hybrids. You mix up all kinds of car companies and call them the majors. Tesla outsells most of the majors while offering a very expensive car. The Model 3 is already one of the best selling cars in his category including ICEs. The Model S and X are bestsellers. I am not sure why you have the urge to just talk down everything Tesla does. They are a significant force in the market.

The iPace will hardly be a contender for Tesla. It is competing with one of Tesla's models and quite frankly, Jaguar does not have the appeal that Tesla has. The car itself is supposed to be good though.

This is the aspect that you don't understand. You say it but you think that this makes it easy for them to adapt. Car companies have to spend billions to switch lines and they can't produce them profitably at the moment. The Leaf and Zoe are exceptions, they aren't the norm.

Not all majors will be done, but Tesla will be a major car company in a few years. I don't know why it's so difficult for you to understand. What you are trying to see in all of this has never happened in history. Tesla's development is quite the norm and is history repeating itself.

I just want to say that for a tent, the Tesla tent is pretty badass

The Prius has an internal combustion engine. Even the plug-in Prius has an ICE.

Out of curiosity what do you know about car production lines, and what exactly makes you think that?

Tesla produces 0.15% of all global car output.

They're sold 30,000 in 6 mix months. This is < 0.1% of all global production. It's <1% of Toyota's production alone.

I don't talk down anything Tesla does. The conversion which you joined into was whether Musk is important in moving forward global mass EV production. He's not. The end. The electric car industry would look little different.

Tesla were obviously selling by are best-in-class electric sports car at a massive loss - about $25K per expensive car. They had a near monopoly on high end luxury electric sports cars and were still far too incompetent to turn a profit. That monopoly has now come to an end - the iPace is the first of many. The situation has gone from a monopoly on the funnest cars around to Tesla no longer having the best in class AND being more expensive while making a loss. That only ends one way.

Tesla has 3 models. Every Model X sold is worth about 10 Model 3 in terms of potential free cash flow, and about 3 Model 3 in terms of revenue.

You're just crazy dude. Toyota manages to produce hydrogen cars, battery cars (since 1997!), trucks, all a huge range of car types. The idea that they can't start creating more battery models is just you wishing something to be true and then believing it to be true.

Many of the majors are targeting 30-50% of new lines being electric vehicles. The planning and prototyping of these is already underway. Dozens are coming out next year. Some, like the Leaf, are Model 3 equivalent as of October, at a much cheaper price.

The idea that the major car companies targeting 30-50% of their new lines being EVs, but not being able to do this despite already being in the process of doing this, is just amusing and ridiculous. Toyota for example already produces pure battery cars, ICE cars, ICE trucks, bestselling hybrid cars (the Prius and others since 1997!), hydrogen fuel cell cars and trucks, yet according to the loopy doopy world of Spurious, they're going to stumble over adding more electric models. Ok bro. I'm backing away slowly with my hands up.
You heard it here first. Tesla are going to destroy some of majors, who won't be able to adapt to electric cars, Tesla will be a major car company (which means millions of cars at a profit) in "a few years", it's "the norm" that new car companies take over and don't go bankrupt (name the last US car company that didn't go bankrupt starting up, and turned into a major? What year was that in?)

It must be wonderful to live your head, with your own personal Jesus, Elon Musk, to keep you company, and actual facts not mattering at all.

I haven't followed Tesla too much, everyone in the past page or so is focusing on fundamentals of simply battery powered cars. To me, it's obvious that Tesla should have no real competitive advantage designing simply an all battery car, as that part of manufacturing should be relatively trivial for other plants to mimic, unless they have some IP on something crucial which afaik, they don't. I thought one of Teslas big competitive advantages was their autopilot and associated IP. Who are their big competitors there?

This is a pure lie/PR, albeit one that's been used to pump the stock price. Tesla are dead last in autonomous driving.

Navegant, a well regarded billion dollar industry research company, looks at the state of autonomous driving every year. This is their take:


Waymo and GM Cruise are the leaders, but all of the major car companies have them crushed here. Both Waymo and GM are operating actual autonomous city wide ride hailing operations in trial phases in several major cities; GM has one that's been in operation for many months that's used by their employees. They're far into level 4 autonomy; Tesla are struggling with basic competence at Level 2 and are many years behind. GM and Waymo are expanding to tens of thousands of cars this and next year in the first commercial city-wide offerings of autonomous ride hailing in many major US cities. Tesla can't even cope reliability with highway obstacle avoidance and lane keeping.

Disengagement data reported in California also puts Waymo (Google) and GM Cruise orders of magnitude ahead of Tesla on reliability. Tesla are a non-starter in this space; they have no money for R&D, a terrible strategy and are years behind to begin with.

Musk is basically a liar/PR genius who's pushed the autonomous driving meme hard, backed up by analysts, but the reality is very different. To give you an idea, here is what he claimed 18 months ago, in January 2017, selling "Fully Self Driving" packs for $5000/apiece:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...416768?lang=en



There are currently multiple consumer fraud claim before the courts on these sales and claims.

Tesla's even basic level 2 software (highway lane keeping, automatic braking) is so horrible it recently killed an Apple engineer driving a Tesla car by erroneously following a lane marking straight into a concrete center divider at high speed, with no braking, killing the driver. It lacks even basic realiable forward radar or environmental mapping. The crash is currently under investigation by the NHTSA.

Elon tweeting about a Tesla pickup with 300k lbs of towing capacity

Is he just testing how dumb his followers are? Like i put spurious on the upper end of intelligence of the tesla fanbase, and his logic skills are pretty bad.

300,000lbs? Maybe he’s getting his pickups confused with his space rockets.

where do you see that 300k pounds tweet? Don't see anything like that in his twitter. Obviously he doesn't mean it could tow three railroad cars.

lol, found the tweet, it's obviously a joke.

It's not a joke when the stock spikes as a direct result of those tweets, whether that's algos and/or idiot retail buying.

uh you think the stock went up 1% because Musk made a joke about towing capacity? Jesus christ man, get a hold of yourself.

Why do you say it's a joke? A plane has a weight of 175,000 pounds and they had a Model X towing one. Of course, a strong man can do it too.

I saw three tweets. One stating a 300k lb towing capacity, one stating it'll be a 6 seater, and another saying it'll have at least 400-500 mile range.

Are they all obvious jokes?

My honda accord can pull a plane in the same fashion but that doesn't mean it has a towing capacity of 175k pounds. Towing capacity doesn't mean "how much a truck can possibly move".