Its cool man, all good. Just wanted to confirm that all your short term trades are completely legit and not just words on a message board like all your bigger macro and longer term calls. Thanks.

TS will be the first millionaire/possibly even billionaire from TSLA's success. Either stock goes up and he is obviously long or it's going down and company is doomed as he's been saying for the past 12 years.

ASAP and Spurious, you guys are being pretty unfair haters. TS has been posting trade recommendations both long and short, with entrance and exit points, before the stock moves, and has been right 80+% of the time (by my estimate). He's said he doesn't hold long term, but that doesn't mean he isn't allowed to have a long term thesis or share that thesis in the thread. As for whether he is actually making the trades he is recommending, I don't see what evidence there is that he's lying about it. And I would guess at some point he's posted screenshots from his IB account, but I assume you would say those are doctored images anyway, because you just wanna hate hate hate hate hate hate.

It' s getting old for readers I'm sure, so will take a break from 2p2. I'll still post trades in private chat.

At this point I've pretty much won all arguments about Tesla/Musk, so not much left to discuss. Merely bankruptcy to play out.

You can tell people feel owned when they follow you around doing nothing but attempted character assassination. It's pretty funny/sad, but the lurkers must be getting sick of it, so taking a break to let Spurious/ASAP/etc unbunch their panties and soothe their dissonances.

Tesla's a nice short here at $316. Jonas' note today says it all. When their biggest bull is flat out calling Musk a liar on production projections, and is projecting 8+ months on what he said is happening in three weeks, something weird is going on.

I'm 70+% inclined to believe this reporter, given his amazing track record:



And if so, it's lights out by the end of the year. If Musk can raise he might extend it a little, but it's crunch time and he's got **** all to show...the bullest of projections have them too far behind to ever catch up to making it to the big leagues with all the capital expenditure cutting they've had to do, and now the hole they're in. Raising will merely get them to even/not enough to fund the lines to produce over 5K/week, and every single thing they own down to the factory and future lease revenue is mortgaged and spent. There's a reason Musk looks so utterly dejected.

Final thought: Coming soon to a homeless park near you

I hope you stay on 2p2, for two reason:

1. It's good to have someone that argues the other side relentlessly.
2. It's now crunch time for TSLA and a lot of things that you've claimed over the years will play out in the next 6 months.

Your fan club just circled Jan 1st 2019 on their calendars.

All: Let's say TSLA goes SHTF. Stock takes massive hit for whatever reason, company can't really continue operations. Would some other company swoop in and acquire it? Which ones would? How would the scenario(s) play out?

I don't really care what you believe, I'll say whatever I want and if you don't like it... Too bad. It's obscenely obvious anyone who feels like they keep needing to justify themselves on a mostly dead subforum on a poker forum (when you've never played poker, owned Bitcoin etc) to people they consider "cucks" or what other name you want to choose is a fraud.

The idea that he would be laughing his ass off at shorts when he constantly has claimed thats the right side to be on is completely legitimate I'm sure. Just like when he said Bitcoin was a great long from $400 to $10k despite calling it a ponzi (and not owning any himself). Again believe what you want, you don't like my posts there are tools to not have to deal with it.

Given the hubris of Elon Musk, I don't think that scenario would occur, or it's very unlikely. More likely is that he will play the role of the Iraqi information minister and continue the farce until the very last possible moment. It will probably trade at the tens of billions on the very same day they file for Chapter 7 after market close, which plunges them to zero overnight. There will be no massive hit until the death blow. When bankruptcy comes, it will come like the second coming of Jesus. Nobody will know the hour it happens, and longs will be caught with their pants down when it does happen.

Though I guess the above will depend if the institutional holders still stubbornly decide to HODL or not in the face of what looks to be a 3b in negative working capital with 75% their remaining cash in the form of either refundable customer deposits or overseas capital that can't be brought back in without taxes for their Q2 report.

Even if there is a hypothetical buyer, they would surely wait until after bankruptcy to pick out the meat from the carcass. Look at the recent Soros convertible bond arbitrage trade, which is probably the best possible way to short TSLA.

what's the company worth after paying all the bondholders?
highly doubt anybody will swoop in before bankruptcy. but then again, people have been throwing money into this fire for years now.

If there was enough investor confidence in this scenario to have a market cap of tens of billions of dollars why wouldn't Musk hold a stock offering rather than declare bankruptcy?

If he could do an equity raise, he would've done so by now especially around Feb-March when it popped. Given that he went for crappy convertible bonds instead, there is probably something very material and negative that he would have to disclose by law if he wanted to equity raise. Maybe a Wells notice or something, who knows.

Otherwise it makes no sense whatsoever why Musk let the company get to 2.2b in negative working capital when the stock was (and currently is) above $300. If I were a shareholder, I would consider suing the board at this point for breach of fiduciary duty in letting the financial situation get to where it is and not bothering with an equity raise.

This is actually a key point in my short thesis, as I do think something pretty severe is preventing him from getting his equity raise, but I have no idea what it could be.

Likely an asset purchase with proceeds being used to satisfy debt holders for pennies on the dollar

#triggered

Someone on twitter posted a copy of a FOIA filing they made showing SEC confirmed an active investigation as of Jan 2018, ill try and find the link

Tsla doesn't need extra cash now. Market has been saying capital raise in 3rd or 4th quarter all along.

Musk gets anything close to 5k by September, as it seems likely, he will have no problem raising some combination of equity and debt worth 4-6 billion to get through another 12-18 months

What a whole lot of horse crap. I am not even sure if you are serious. But if this is what the shorts think, I can imagine why they are so confident.

There would be dozens of company lining up to buy TSLA. Do people not understand that unlike most Western car companies, they have product market fit for their electric car?

Because Musk does not want to give up control in the company. An equity raise means that he has to dilute his stock holdings even further. Why do shorts not understand that Musk wants to be in control and avoids everything possible to keep it that way? Going to the market would lower his influence.

For sure, I wouldn't even deny it. If you guys want to straddle the fence and play both sides, I'm sure I would have a similar reaction. How can you laugh at shorts (in multiple posts on the previous page) getting squeezed in this name given the post history in here?

He says that, but the balance sheet says otherwise. Without a capital infusion, I don't see how they get past even October. The only cash flows in are the S+X as even Musk admits the M3 is negative GM and won't be 0 GM until July at earliest.

If it truly is a wait until 5k then equity+debt raise plan, then he is cutting it awfully close. That still doesn't explain why he went for the bond structure that he did last time when an equity raise would've been far superior.


Who? In a few short months, the long range Leaf, the I-Pace, and the Kona are coming out. What makes TSLA superior to the Leaf in the mid range prices, the I-Pace at the high end, and the Kona at the low end? Do those advantages justify buying TSLA for 50b?

Look at Musk's compensation structure and his influence on the board and think about why this makes zero sense.

Why? For the tech? It's not so special that you'd pay a premium. For the factories? It would help if they weren't such a disaster. For the name? I don't think so.

I have a huge short position, but i do research and take risks, how TS feels to act or react is irrelevant to me, i think he has good insight so i like his posting.

Its weird to get so worked up over his posts. Makes you look insecure.

TSLA the company maybe.

TSLA the debt + OSHA and SEC investigations + etc maybe not.

Not giving up control of his company is arguably why TSLA may fail spectacularly. I would imagine that's why shorts are short in the first place, because they DO understand his incessant need to control. His inability to delegate is one extra example to that notion. I was under the impression he can't do a capital raise bc he can't disclose information that would be devastating to his agenda.

If you wanna go full tinfoil (tho it doesn't seem too far fetched) he not only can't raise capital, he recently sunk his own money into TSLA as a last ditch effort with what I'd guess is the last bit of available cash he's willing to part with to keep this thing alive. Couple that with TS' Perez Hilton post and the entertaining conference calls...popcorn.gif

All the absurdity and turnover has the feel of the Trump Administration. Then again, Trump seems immune to everything so maybe Elon Musk is too...

TATA TESLA?

that RENOWNED GOSSIP REPORTER that tooth sayer put so much faith into also has some theories about Anthony Bourdain's suicide

http://www.crazydaysandnights.net/20...-didnt-go.html

dude seems legit

Good to see TS is still obsessed with cuckolds.