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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

05-12-2018 , 11:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
His highest car manufacturing qualification is as a mere engineer 25 years ago. He has no experience in modern manufacturing processes, let alone the vast knowhow in automobile manufacturing.

Musk is obviously just some stupid 90s software cuck who has no business doing anything other than PR, and certainly not managing. Wow.
Munro did say that the build quality was similar to that of an early 90s Kia. Now it makes sense .

I think this departure is worse though:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-e...ymo-1526160814

So who is responding to the NTSB and NHTSA now? I imagine he was the guy who tried to calm things between the two organizations and Musk.

Now imagine if they issue a mandatory recall over autonomous driving or what not from their investigation along with an injunction over future sales until Tesla is in compliance with their requirements. Who is going to negotiate that on Musk's behalf? That is something that would kill Tesla almost immediately.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
05-13-2018 , 12:53 AM
Wouldn't they just flip a switch and disable autopilot if that happens?

Last edited by n00b590; 05-13-2018 at 01:03 AM.
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05-13-2018 , 02:18 AM
What's Tesla autopilot's deaths/accidents per mile vs hjmans'?
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05-13-2018 , 09:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Munro did say that the build quality was similar to that of an early 90s Kia. Now it makes sense .
I just can't get my head around how much of a moron you'd have to be to put an Apple hardware designer in charge of car mass manufacturing. You'd have to misunderstand and have bad heuristics on so many levels to make a mistake of this magnitude. I mean, we already knew that from his over-automation and the grand promises there (he obviously understands next to nothing about robots and their insurmountable limitations), but this is proof he's incompetent on a business/people/general manufacturing level as well.

Quote:
I think this departure is worse though:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-e...ymo-1526160814

So who is responding to the NTSB and NHTSA now? I imagine he was the guy who tried to calm things between the two organizations and Musk.
They're dropping like flies. Never a good sign. Pretty much every part of their company has major high level departures, right as they're supposedly going into a ramp to bring them to profitability.
Quote:
Now imagine if they issue a mandatory recall over autonomous driving or what not from their investigation along with an injunction over future sales until Tesla is in compliance with their requirements. Who is going to negotiate that on Musk's behalf? That is something that would kill Tesla almost immediately.
I don't think that's very likely. This seems as bear-true-believer as some of the ridiculous bull-true-believer predictions about Tesla energy ramping up to billions last year. The scenario you suggest is punitive and the only way it happens is if someone is out for blood at the regulator. <10% imo. Still, there is certainly autopilot risk. It's clearly more dangerous than regular driving and it's only a matter of time before there's another horrific death like the one that followed a lane right into the concrete divider.
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05-13-2018 , 11:23 AM
"clearly more dangerous"

Another egregious fabrication.
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05-14-2018 , 10:51 AM
The PR genius desperately tries to get ahead of the news cycle of all the disastrous departures, with another "leaked" internal memo about management restructuring just as the stock is tanking on the major departures over the weekend.

Quote:
Elon Musk Tells Employees That Tesla Will Undergo A Management Restructuring, Flatten The Organization, According To Memo - WSJ Reporter Tweet
One of the best PR/fraud minds of our generation. At this rate they'll be filing for bankruptcy while the stock is still > $200.
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05-14-2018 , 11:29 AM
lol "stock tanking"

Bro it fell 2%
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05-14-2018 , 05:44 PM
Was that the restructuring alluded to in the last conference call, or is there more to come?
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05-15-2018 , 12:20 AM
This article seems to put a lot of nails into the coffin of this company. I am curious if any Tesla supporters have a rebuttal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcoll.../#7204e53b6382
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05-15-2018 , 02:35 AM
It starts out great...

Quote:
Field’s decision to take a hiatus is a stinging blow for Tesla, as he was the closest thing to a "car guy" in Tesla's senior leadership team.
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05-15-2018 , 03:13 AM
The article recycles a lot of known facts. Hardly any of this is new.
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05-15-2018 , 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsb235
This article seems to put a lot of nails into the coffin of this company. I am curious if any Tesla supporters have a rebuttal.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcoll.../#7204e53b6382
The only rebuttal is the notion that Tesla might start producing enough cars to get their cash flow high enough to avoid bankruptcy. Jonas (who massively downgraded Tesla today considering he was the first and most loyal/delusional bull with a lot of weight) nails it with this:

Morgan Stanley Has Had Enough, Slashes Tesla Price Target
Quote:
In our view, the number one issue at the heart of the Tesla investment debate is whether the company is 1) currently operating at a low level of utilization of a very large industrial complex, where incremental revenue can bring large incremental gross margins and improvement of cash consumption, or 2) the next 50-100% of growth in revenue brings forth other calls on cash and does not materially move the company in the direction of a fully self-funding existence.
I don't know what the answer to this is, although given their very low levels of competence and Musk's idiotic hiring decisions (who doesn't have experienced car guys on their team??????? How much of a grandiose hubristic narcissist do you need to be to make that kind of mistake?), I'd be leaning toward the option 2 fairly heavily.

The most incredible thing about Jonas' note is his long term view on Tesla, admitting what I've been kindly and generously telling the cucks all along: there is no Musk "special sauce", he is a fraud who has no edge over the global automobile industry, and is in fact incompetent compared to them:

Quote:
We lowered our long-term operating margin forecast to 9.8% from 14.3% previously. This change takes our long-term view of group OP margins from best in class premium levels to margins in line with that of the German premium names or recent GM N. American margins.
This is an admission by Jonas that Musk's "machine that builds the machine" was just Musk's idiotic incompetence on display, and he has no possible edge on the majors - as I've told you all along. The best he can hope for is to match them if everything goes right - and that still requires a decade and $100 billion in net capital inflows to come from somewhere - just to justify half their current valuation in 10 years time.
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05-15-2018 , 09:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
lol "stock tanking"

Bro it fell 2%





"lol what fire

Bro I got a few candles going is all"
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05-15-2018 , 09:20 AM
uh tooth sayer do you know how time works?
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05-15-2018 , 10:51 AM
another "leak"

Leaked email says Tesla may have huge burst of Model 3 production this week

Musk's PR skills are far ahead of his engineering skills clearly. Making more 3's instead of X's and S's is a horrible strategy longer term.

This is how mad the Musk cult is now:
Billionaire Ron Baron: We're going to make '20 times our money' in Tesla

So he predicts Tesla will be worth 1 trillion.
Currently the 5 largest vehicle manufacturers have an aggregate valuation of about 510 billion.
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05-15-2018 , 07:26 PM
I feel like I could build an excel model to project tesla profitability ( w soft coded variable inputs obv) in about 4 hours that would far exceed whatever trowe and josh spencer are using


Trowe added 10m shares in q1
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05-16-2018 , 05:31 PM
That would be super impressive since so much of Tesla's future profitability depends on unknown products.
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05-16-2018 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
another "leak"

Leaked email says Tesla may have huge burst of Model 3 production this week

Musk's PR skills are far ahead of his engineering skills clearly. Making more 3's instead of X's and S's is a horrible strategy longer term.

This is how mad the Musk cult is now:
Billionaire Ron Baron: We're going to make '20 times our money' in Tesla

So he predicts Tesla will be worth 1 trillion.
Currently the 5 largest vehicle manufacturers have an aggregate valuation of about 510 billion.
What about energy companies?
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05-16-2018 , 08:42 PM
ye, this energy thingy that came with the huge pile of debt they 'bought', how's that working out?

hint: awful
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05-16-2018 , 08:52 PM
their energy storage business had $181 million in revenue in 2016, 1.1 billion in 2017 and are projecting 3 billion in 2018
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05-16-2018 , 08:59 PM
cool.
is that covering the debt it came along with?
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05-16-2018 , 09:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
This is how mad the Musk cult is now:..
Currently the 5 largest vehicle manufacturers have an aggregate valuation of about 510 billion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipRick
What about energy companies?
It's hilarious watching how Musk directly ****s with the stupid minds of investors/cult inductees.

Failing horribly at making cars? Talk up Tesla energy as "the future". Failing horribly at cars, and coming last in autonomous driving with no hope of ever catching up? Have your pet rat analysts talk up the completely non-existence "Tesla mobility" autonmous car fleet. Clucks/slappies like ChipRick lap this up, while others like Mikhel claim it's not a car business, it's an energy business. It' comical to watch Musk download bull**** straight into your brains.

Here are the facts:

- Energy storage is a commodity business; there's little money it. In fact, Musk loses money on every battery he sells, which is why people buy it - he subsidizes the batteries.

- Musk simply buys cells from suppliers, puts a cover on them and sells them at a loss - the South Australian project was provided at a large loss with cells from Samsung. He has no energy business of his own. The Gigafactory is owned by Panasonic and paid for by Musk. It's quite the coup for them.

- Panasonic, a large global battery maker, is worth only $30 billion and most of their business isn't energy storage.

- Batteries for energy storage won't scale to large size (car business size) because they're uneconomical and always will be. They're an expensive niche product.

- SolarCity, another item predicted to grow, has been a disaster, halving its sales, shutting down much of its operation and having to have its debt serviced by Tesla. Musk attempted to cover this with "look! Over there! Beautiful solar roofs!" which are also a disaster.

There's nothing to see here except Musk inserting nonsense into your gullible minds.
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05-17-2018 , 08:35 AM
Conflicting and factually inaccurate statements. Guess that massive short at $200 isn't playing out so well?

So much cognitive dissonance when your whole identity is fabricated on a lie.
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05-17-2018 , 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Mihkel05
Quote:
while others like Mikhel claim it's not a car business, it's an energy business
Conflicting and factually inaccurate statements.
Really? See my quotes from you below.
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Guess that massive short at $200 isn't playing out so well?
Now you're straight up making **** up to try and discredit me? Hilarious.
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So much cognitive dissonance when your whole identity is fabricated on a lie.
You're reaching the point of creepy self beclowning at this stage.

As for your Tesla area an energy company quotes, from 2016:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
They are very clearly an energy company. I think I'm one of the few people who posts here who actually understands tech strategy. I vaguely remember a time when I was talking about Uber as a logistics company which is obvious now, but apparently I was "fever brained" then.

Then Musk buys out his own solar company and releases another energy product.

This of course ignores how an electric car company that wants a large share of the market can't be decoupled from being an energy company.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Toyota are an energy company too. They make tanks that can be filled up with stored energy with an energy conversion unit to term chemical energy into kinetic energy. The produce these by the millions. On top of that, they make and provide and research hydrogen fuel cells for lots of purposes. So let's not analyze them as a car company - they're an energy company, guys!

It's a meaningless abstraction - it lights up a bulb in your (literally, your) brain, but it doesn't mean anything.

It's similar with Tesla as an "energy company" - it's noise, PR, nonsense. Tesla will live or die at their current valuation as a car company and only as a car company. Nothing they do in the cutthroat battery world is going to matter - they have no structural or research advantage, for one, and for two, the industry is moving so rapidly and with such fierce competitors and government-backed involvement that you can't get a stable enough position to ever get meaningful profit.


We all know why Musk bought out his own solar company. It was in serious financial trouble and he was bailing himself and his friends/family out with Tesla money. Even his most ardent supporters said it made no sense and was basically cronyism.

That he bailed out a near bankrupt solar sales company to bail himself out and stop horrible headlines tanking the shares of Tesla doesn't mean they're now an energy company.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
You are literally the worst poster at understanding 1) what tech companies actually do 2) their long term strategy. I'm not going to tear down your word vomit straw man, but I'll point out that Tesla has already made huge investments into 1) Gigafactory 2) Supercharger network 3) Energy products. The idea that they will "live and die as a car company" is absurd.
The last bolded is hilarious. Here they are, two years later living and dying entirely on the Model 3 (i.e. as a car company), in direct opposition to what you said. If they make 7000 Model 3s/week by the end of the year, they survive and maybe prosper, if they make 3000 or have a big recall, they're finished and bankrupt.

The "energy" part of their company is money losing, SCTY is a huge fail which they've scaled back massively, and they've fallen fall short of the bull thesis - 18% for SCTY and 3% for Tesla energy.

This is why you don't get into abstract fantasy worlds where you abstract away reality. You miss the details. And the details are that despite Musk's desperate bull**** that he downloads into the brain of slappies, the only bet you're making on Tesla is on them as a car company and there's no other value proposition here - not autonomy, not energy, not anything but cars.

P.S. How did Uber logistics turn out?
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05-17-2018 , 09:17 AM
Many, reading this thread for late 2016/early 2017 from the start of those posts above is amazing. The bulls were completely insane on:

- Tesla energy profit and revenue projections
- Autonomous driving - they openly ridiculed my (true) claims that Telsa were far behind and that this was obvious
- M3 production
- Buying into Musk's "machine that builds the machine" hype
- Believing he could otherwise out-manufacture the major car companies

The enthusiast crazy hype of the bulls is incredible.

It seems all the saner bulls have slinked away as M3 has turned into a failure, SCTY has turned into a failure, solar roofs turned into a joke, Tesla energy hit 3% of projections, the huge autonomous driving failure (confirmed dead last), Musk's grandiose incompetent stupidity on "air friction" robots, and the stock has lost 25% in a big up market.

Only the crazy bulls are left.
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