Kazuya: I didn't read all of that, but I'm confident I have the gist of it, and the praise you heap on Musk if very misguided. You sound like an edgy high schooler praising Pablo Escobar for being THE MAN, dude. I don't think Musk is cool for defrauding investors and burning billions of dollars to feed his ego and be the first to mass produce electric cars, especially considering that his contributions to hastening widespread adoption of electric and self-driving cars may actually be negligible. They'll be mass produced when batteries are cheap enough, and other companies have surpassed Tesla's self-driving capabilities without using any of Tesla's tech. So had Tesla never existed, I think it's quite possible that mass-produced electric cars would be just as near on the horizon as they are now. And I disagree that his deception and willingness to screw his backers is anything he should be lauded for. He's not some champion for the little guy any more than Trump or Escobar.

Mikhel: Instead of giving some insulting, cryptic response, just briefly state what the issue is. It's not obvious to me what that graph is supposed to imply. And the more you respond in this hand-wavy style, the more certain I become that you don't actually have a reasonable basis for your position. It's like talking to some conceited know-it-all hippie who tells you the corporations are raping America, and you ask how so, and he responds that you need to wake up, and you ask wake up to what, and he responds that you can't see when you're hoodwinked by the government, and on and on it goes until you finally just give up and conclude he's a vacuous ****.

To be clear: I don't think it's "cool" to defraud investors. I also don't know whether he is actually doing that or not as my focus is spent on things I own and admittedly I haven't combed through all his earning calls/reports. My 2c is he believes he's allocating resources properly in order to (space/solar/car/whatever) the best possible way for mass adoption/success -- that's OK in my books. If it's truly fraud in the financial sense, why hasn't any of these earning calls/statements got him arrested yet? Shouldn't the SEC be knocking on his door? I'm genuinely asking. Obv if he's truly lying about hard financials or whatever, sure go to jail as that crosses a line -- and he knows the rules of finance he's playing by.

And yes, I also believe Tesla/Musk existing may have moved the needle slightly forward on innovation in greener energy alternatives and space exploration. Indeed I do see "this" as a net positive regardless of shareholder earnings next quarter. If that makes me a misguided fanboy, I can live with that label.

somi,

I'd consider reading the post to determine what the graph is meant to show. My response isn't cryptic or insulting, unless you are actually unable to read, in which case I apologize, but whatever.

Could you point out data in 10-Qs/10-Ks where TSLA has actually misstated financial results that rise to the level of being fraudulent? If not please point us to 10-Q/10-K data where the data is wrong?

The intent of financial statements is to provide transparency. Apparently there are investors that after studying TSLA financial statements find that the earnings potential is worth the price of TSLA stock. When you use the word "defrauded" the onus is on you to provide evidence and Elon Musk quotes by the media is not sufficient.

That conference call didn't exactly instill hope.

I've read the post. I've looked at the graph. I don't get it. Please explain to us, because it looks like 5 years ago TS stated you're better off in MSFT than AAPL. 5 years later, he turned out to be right about it. What am I missing? What exactly are you trying to point out?

I understand you believe TS is full of ****. What I don't understand is how the graph + post = evidence to support your belief.

The class-action lawsuit filed in March is what I'm referring to as fraud. He knew the target for Model 3 production was impossible, yet assured investors they were on track to attain it. There are other instances of purposeful misleading that aren't fraud per se, but when looked at in totality reveal a picture of Musk as an unethical narcissist. That's why I object when he's praised as a virtuous rebel striving to save our planet.

Kazuya, love the original post you made on Elon Musk.

My only takeaway from it is that the valuation of TSLA defies logic in the technical sense of valuing a business. It's almost as if it would be more correct to view it like a cryptocurrency long term.

Musk is a weird and wonderful individual. Definitely brilliant. Not Nikola Tesla brilliant, but brilliant + billions + an imagination = can move needles in many possible ways in the world with luck and success. He doesn't seem to be competent in managing a company and it's finances beyond his level of intellect, however.

It makes complete sense that TSLA ends at $0 or gets bought out at like $50 or something. But it could also #LamboMoon on hysteria alone. He doesn't even really seem to have a high bar to clear. Barring a recession, TSLA could be at $1000 within two years. It's obvious Musk seems to have that Trump-like immunity with conference calls...they dgaf about conference calls and earnings reports, just that Musk and his cars n rockets are flamethrowin ****ing cool.

Full disclosure: I have a hefty investment in TSLA in the form of popcorn...

How about not running out of money?

I could definitely see truth in him being an unethical narcissist, but he didn't creating The Boring Company out of complete self-interest. Or SpaceX. Traffic pissed him off, but his response wasn't egocentric. It was to try and eliminate the problem for all cities and people who deal with the same bull****. Colonizing Mars...Maybe he's Kanye crazy to an extent with good intentions.

There are definitely cases to be made for fraud and the SEC and OSHA are damn near or already are knocking on his door, but if he's screwing anyone, it's people with plenty of money who in all honesty would just be pissed their investment didn't pan out but shrug at the end of the day. If Kazuya's thesis is correct, then the ends justify the means and orders of magnitude beyond. Possibly revolutionary.

TF,

He didn't actually make that claim 5 years ago. Check the dates.

Of course, but TSLA has been defying logic going on what, ten years now? Is it not reasonable to just assume Musk is going to pull a rabbit out of, forget his hat, his ass?

Are we expecting SpaceX, Boring, and Tesla (SolarCity) all to implode into an epic vortex of abyss? They're all still around, and it makes zero sense how they all still exist...But they do.

TD,

Weird false dichotomy. No one expects SpaceX to implode currently. Most people think Tesla has some cool stuff inside a deeply flawed company. And lol Boring Company is just total idiocy that is barely off the ground. Then again people think he didn't win the battle at Paypal either. So whatever.

I've been reading these forums for a looong time. I'm not 100% positive, but I definitely remember TS saying something like "You might as well be in MSFT if you're in tech, AAPL is overrated..."

I actually tried to search for old threads n posts but to no conclusive avail. Also, I noticed there is a "Truthsayer" and a "ToothSoother" in some of the threads I searched. ToothSoother has the same exact avatar as TS. Not really sure who is who or wtf is going on there...I was under the impression Truthsayer was TS' old handle and never noticed ToothSoother until today. I'm super confused. However, posts suggest that both handles in question expressed the MSFT would most definitely outperform AAPL.

Here is one post by ToothSoother. He actually quotes a post by Truthsayer.

Here is one post by Truthsayer. He says AAPL, from the time of that post, will be bankrupt in ten years.

They are the same person. My entire point is that he didn't make that claim over that time period and pretended to have made that claim. Notice how he was gonna come back with "evidence" except it doesn't exist. Feel free to check from his actual first post in that thread to his graph post and what actually transpired.

Yo guys, cc @OptionsHawk on this but $30m of TSLA 2020 $200 calls purchased throughout the day. Reminds me of a $58m ITM purchase in AMZN a few years back when opinion on the stock was super polarized. Not saying it will go like AMZN, I've made my feelings clear but it is one of those big outlays that makes you pause. And before you ask, no this isn't likely to be a hedge or stock replacement.

Someone also sold $30m of calls...

The market makers that book these huge bets are completely hedged out so while this is correct in principle, it's wrong in reality.

It makes absolutely no sense to buy $30 million of calls $80 in the money as a long bet. None at all. Hedging a short, probably. It's the perfect way to make a bet on Tesla going bankrupt. Short for massive size, buy calls, If Tesla goes bankrupt by 2020 you make 70% profit. If it goes up you break even. Sure, you give up profit at $200-$280, but for that you get two years of move against protection and no margin requirements. Probably some big player short from $350 or so, wanting to lock in $70 profit and still have bankruptcy win exposure, rather than cover.

It's not a hedge lol but believe what you want.

Also, this is why looking at big options bets is ****ing ******ed. You don't know what they mean and rich fools fling money around wildly just as often as poor fools, with about the same accuracy.

Why the **** is this not a hedge? Like, what is your reasoning? The only way it makes sense is a fund or big trader locking in profits on a short while wanting to remain bankruptcy exposed. See my edit above where I explain in a little more detail how it works. It's a no brainer if you took a big short at $340, which a lot of people did given how the short% has risen a lot lately.

In fact, shorting the stock and buying calls is probably the cleverest way of shorting this stock. Because they're either going bankrupt by 2020 or they're going to get over the hump - so you get $200 of free downside, basically, with zero stress or margin

They are hedged on their delta, they have vega and gamma risk. These Jan2020 200 calls are 77, a market maker short 1K of these calls will be long 77K shares and theoretically not care about an average move in the stock. But what if TSLA goes to 0 tomorrow? The market maker is screwed


If you are short stock and long call on a 100 delta you are effectively long a put outright at the strike price of the call. There are much cheaper options that require a lot less dollar outlay to hedge a short position. Buying the $200 call you are paying almost $35.30 in time value per option. $3530 of time value to have the right to buy 100 shares at $200 in Jan2020. That's an expensive hedge. What's more likely the scenario is that a guy wanted to get long and instead of buying all the shares he preferred to own ITM calls. Basically the tradeoff is for the right to be long shares he will lose less money if TSLA goes to $0 as he will have to lay out less cash for the calls than buying stock outright

I'd also figure a guy short TSLA stock and wanting to hedge would buy upside calls. If it was a guy who was short stock and hedging with these deep ITM calls he should have traded the $200 put neutral. That would buy him the put and cover his short shares to effectively have the same bet with a lot less capital outlay

This is what i gathered. I have no reads on intention or hedging but buying deep ITM calls is closer to buying stock and less expensive (extrinsic) than buying ATM calls