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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
hilarious to see tooth sayer **** himself when asked to make actual long term predictions. What a cuck!
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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
huh, I thought you said Tesla was going to zero? Interesting.
I haven't actually thought about it recently. I trade Tesla short term. The majority of the time I have no clue what the price is going to do. When I do, I post and shove in, long or short.
Jan 2019 all hinges on M3. Musk has said he's trying for 6000/week by November. I would have to do an actual cash flow analysis to see if that's enough to keep their head above water given their obligations.
Personally I think they'll limp along while the stock price declines and go bankrupt as the M3 demand peaks (since they can't it make it profitably for $35K; the market isn't large enough for a $50K M3), there are recall problems or lawsuits. If neither of those eventuate then Model Y ramp will sink them. Credit and demand will dry up, and competition will be fierce.
Jan 2019: $200 (lower before then, but might get a bounce again late in the year as they do a raise, sort out M3 and pump the Y. 50/50 on the late year bounce imo)
Jan 2020: Bankrupt, but let's say $70 to cover some kind of buyout or SpaceX rescue.
Ultimately, given who holds (mostly institutions plus delusional retail weirdos) and the short percent, it'll need something major like a credit squeeze or obvious failure to make the morons at the institutions dump their holdings. Ackman for example held and bought Valeant (a similarly pumped up fraud with a PR savvy CEO) up at $250. Sequoia didn't dump until $100.
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Originally Posted by adios
if only there were ways to speculate on the price of TSLA at some future date then this pool idea wouldn't be necessary.
Taking the money of people who hate you, backing up their deluded views with cash, is a beautiful thing. It's too bad they don't want to play.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 04-29-2018 at 05:38 PM.