Quote:
Originally Posted by n00b590
I really couldn't care less about your predictions (though hearty lol at $100 being worth anyone's time), just seems reasonable to have some basic intellectual honesty and hold yourself accountable by posting actual numbers, rather than trying to play off your rambling post hoc narratives as actual predictions.
It's clear to everyone except deranged Tesla clownboys that my calls on Tesla and Musk have been excellent. What have I been wrong on?
As for the trading, my posting history is very clear:
- Don't short at at $120 when this thread started, against a bunch of enthusiastic shorts
18th July 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truthsayer
There's no way I'd short Tesla at the moment, because there's no evidence that there's anything to break the story apart right now. Production seems to be fine with no hick ups and probably upside. Competitors have come out with nothing comparable (other EVs are a joke). People were willing to pay $40-$50 for this, consistently, when it was in debt with no sign of ever turning a profit. Now we have profit, loans paid back, improved sales targets and a not implausible story of Tesla as the 21st century's Ford, taking the lead in a new industry and with an amazingly successful innovator CEO. When you have a plausible 10 year 1000% profit story, and nothing to contradict it except common sense, you need something fairly major to prick the optimism so people shift to common sense.
If you want to ride this down, it needs something to pop the bubble. You should be able to get in on bad news after the fact due to the optimism in this stock. When Tesla was down 5% on the Goldman Sachs price target, it was obviously it would go lower, because so much recent profit was in the stock and the fear from the news was a temporary circuit breaker. Now it's back to being a happy stock. I strongly suspect (but don't know) that earnings on Monday will make it happier. If it runs about another $20 or $30, then maybe look at a short. Otherwise I think you're just gambling.
This is a brilliant stock to pick direction in at times due to the wide gulf between plausible optimism and common sense, and the fact that retail investors can grasp both sides without special knowledge, unlike say CRM. It's definitely on my watchlist.
- Bearish at $250 when the Apple news came out
9/21/2015 at $250
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
So, TSLA are now finished as a car maker, in my opinion.
News today is that Apple has its own electric car project going, Project Titan, which has just been given the go ahead to triple in size and is targeting rapid development for delivery in 2019. Until recently it's just been a year-long viability study.
This is a disaster for TSLA, and not for the reason people think.
- Short covered and turned bullish again for 30+% upside when it hit $150 a few months later when the Apple news was finished (they decided not to make a car) and good news/a pump cycle came in
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Down 43% off highs from a few months ago, partly from reality/the upcoming EV competition that everyone downplayed and ridiculed, and partly from Musk's very (very) idiotic design decisions holding up the Model X.
Good time to buy TSLA here at $151 (or cover the short if you had one). It's hard to predict what will happen at this point, especially with the market being volatile, but upside is substantially higher than downside going into earnings and the period after. There are too many things for one of the world's greatest PR talents to pump coming into March.
If earnings turn out bad (reasonable chance), then buying after when it goes to the $120s or so is a no brainer. The upcoming pump cycle through March/April should be impressive and worth 30+% to the long side. I don't recommend it unless you're very comfortable with volatility though.
Long term of course TSLA remains one of the worst buy and holds in the market.
-
Long term "sell if held" recommendation but
strong short to medium term "don't short"
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Sell while you can, heltok. There's 30% upside maybe (which you won't capture anyway since you'll hold, believing the thesis validated by nothing but a news driven short squeeze), and >50% downside (100% long term).
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula72
Shorting TSLA @206.86. Not sure if I want it to go up or down to be frank.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I don't know what your thesis/time frame is, but I will say: bad time to short IMO. Model 3 and all the hype is happening this month. Who knows what BS they can spin. Model X is ramping up now, which is great for the bull case/an excuse for upgrades/positive press. There's also a very high short%/hard to borrow which is great for squeezes should they have a good showing and then have analysts blow it up. "Short squeeze fundamentals" are strong right now.
If you get a market correction TSLA will go down a nice bit (as it's done today so far), and I think short is +EV long term, but expect pain fairly often if you're shorting at this level. My advice to heltok to sell is more to a guy who's holding long term thinking TSLA is great and getting excited by the rises, which are meaningless.
- Finally a sell recommendation at $277 (finished green after a bumpy ride)
- Sell recommendation at $357 (finished very green)
- "You're a total moron if you don't sell, you're -EV over the next year whatever you think of Tesla" recommendation at $380 (finished very green)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
This is an absurd view, imo. From March 2014 (when TSLA first hit $250) to November 2016, Tesla lost 20% while QQQ ripped - it underperformed QQQ by a massive 60% over 2.5 years. All that time the bulls were sprinkling bulldust.
Then Trump happened, volatility dipped, and a bunch of stuff - including TSLA - short squeezed on the market rip. A 6 month rip in the lowest volatility bull market in history, followed by an insane 3 week rip of +30%, when all the high betas are running/short squeezing, and you're claiming it's time for the bears to shut up?
Just more evidence of ridiculously inconsistent and short-sighted views among bulls.
Just something to consider - since it's initial huge run after Tesla mainstreamed by late 2013, TSLA has performed merely in line with QQQ (Nasdaq index).
What you're seeing here has nothing to do with TSLA and everything to do with the market. That's what I'm telling people. Yet you have heltoks believing that something magical is happening, that TSLA is finally being recognized as the great investment it is.
This has happened in every long bull in history, for every nutty high-PR zero-long-term-value stock in history. And every time is different to the bulls in that moment, with their Enron or their Pets.com or their Tesla. Thus they hold rather than take their profits. And get left holding the bag. $380 is bagholder territory, and it's not close. If you're holding Tesla here at $380 rather than getting out, you are strongly -EV over the next year, regardless of what you believe about the long term future of the company.
- Bullish at $260 recently (sold puts, finished up 100%, and advised people to get out of the way and not short)
I've crushed the trading of this, long and short. Mikel and Spurious even admitted that before the $277 recommendation went south. The only thing that blindsided me was the $277 -> $380 Trump rip. Even that ended in a profit. The record is pretty clear. I didn't think Tesla would get to $380 but I didn't see Trump happening, and I didn't recommend shorting until $277, even making money in this situation.
I've understood both the stock, Musk, and the business reality very well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
I thought it was open knowledge that his trading "history" was all nonsense?
No, this is something just made up in your weird little mind and confused with fact. You do this often. A bunch of us have a private chat where we post real time trades, screenshots, etc, so this all pretty hilarious.
Quote:
Read his prior justification for his multiyear bear case which has lose an absurd amount of money.
You mean at $250 when they were "finished" because of Apple's entry, and I recommended short,
then long months later at $150 for 30+% upside once the Apple case was dead and M3 hype was beginning (quoted above)? That "lost" absurd amount of money"? I know you're not very bright, but surely even you can add and subtract? If picking a short at $250 and then getting long at $150 is "losing an abusrd amount of money", lol. Mikhel: so stupid he doesn't even know whether a trade is red or green.
What color is the sky in your weird little world where the above isn't lots of profit??
Quote:
He claims his trading history as an attempt to make up for a fundamental lack of science/business knowledge. I guess it is more just like outright lying now tho.
The only liar is you, so desperate to smear that you make things up, for example claiming that I said cars were made by batch production, when nothing of the sort was ever said and we were talking about prototyping new batteries. You never responded to that or apologized for your lies, being the coward you are.
As for lack of knowledge, I've been right on everything about Tesla so far - failed production, the likelihood of strong M3 order numbers, being far behind autonomous driving, Musk being an actual deliberate cynical liar rather than just an optimistc, autopilot being so bad it would kill people in terrible ways for bad press. The only thing left to play out is eventual bankruptcy.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 04-29-2018 at 01:06 PM.
