Amazing.

Not that I need to defend myself here, but when I say I'm an accountant, I mean I have a cpa license, your implication that I'm filing personal tax returns or am some staff accountant is very wrong

I know what it would take for me to leave a controller or VP post w substantial equity at a 50b market cap company allegedly in "hyper growth" mode.

It is literally 1 of 2 things, I already outlined what the better of those two things would be

ITT we learn

- CEOs representing production projections to shareholders that they know to be impossible isn't against the law.

- You can be partially short the underlying by being short puts.

What else is there to say? If you believe the above, obviously Tesla is going to head the first galactic empire and pull in whole planets worth of free cash flow.

I'm trying to figure out how selling puts is not a long position. Maybe if volatility goes up wildly while the stock goes up I guess the put could go up in price.

Huh? If I think the market is under-pricing the chance that Tesla is much lower in a year or two, you're saying that buying Jan 2020 puts with a strike of say $200 is bad? Selling naked calls seems far riskier, and a short can get forced to cover.. so buying puts seems like the logical choice.

For example, if you are selling put options with strike prices 20% below the current market price, you are not long. You actually have some expectation that the market will go down further.

When someone claims he's sold put options and then the stock price increases and he says that this makes him an automatic winner, you know that he's probably not sold put options.

This is hilariously wrong. If you bought mid year (June) $200 puts on say January or February after Q1 on the thesis that Musk would **** up M3 production, you made a 6 to 9 bagger depending on when you bought them. You need odds of >16% that one of the following would happen:

- Musk would mess up M3 badly (>50%)
- Several bad news items would come out and tank the stock (15% or so)
- The stock market will have a decent correction (10%?)
- Institutional investors start dumping their holdings as disclosures came out (for example, Musk's amazing admission of stock fraud on the January 31 call) - 10%.

On the other side, if you bought weekly calls when the delivery numbers came out and I said Musk's spin was sufficient to make the stock bullish and it could run off lows, you made a 10-30 bagger depending on the strike.

Morish made a double bagger and a 5 bagger I think on puts.

Straight directional vol is by far the best way to play this. Selling vol is the worst way to play this except in rare situations.
This is wrong on several levels. It's very cheap to short the stock. For most of the year is was 1.9%/year to borrow on IB. It's spiked to 9% now (which is still cheap) but it rarely stays elevated. And polarized opinion doesn't matter when there's an outcome approaching that will settle questions in most minds (whether Musk can get viable mass manufacturing working before a cash/credit crunch).

Logic in Spurious world. When you sell puts and it rips 16% the other way in two days, you are not an automatic winner. Thanks for the laugh bro. Truly. Have you ever thought of getting a job as a market maker?

If you were so confident in TSLA's stock price rising, why did you not sell deepish ITM puts? Makes no sense.

To be clear I'm ruling out things like family emergency, 2 non personal life reasons

Your own job and being particularly good at knowing the reasons why someone leaves a job has literally nothing to do with one another.

You would imply the same ****ing thing if the VP in another department would have left. You are also not more credible just because of your own job. It's mind boggling to actually point this out.

Actually, working in the industry means he crushes you on having a sense of the background priors for the normal rate of departure of high level accounting jobs.

The effect is even stronger given that this is structured more like a startup which has stock options and all kinds of retention bonuses. And especially just as a ramp is happening which is supposed to take the company to the next level and is supposed to be on track. People don't usually quit under those circumstances unless something is rotten.

And low and behold a few weeks later we find out why: an incompetent CEO who in addition to being incompetent commits deliberate actionable stock fraud.

Spurious, I strongly recommend saving this string of posts. If someday you learn how options work you'll get a good laugh looking back at this and seeing how gentle everyone is being to you.

None of this has anything to do with being a CPA certified accountant. This is loltastic.

I love "deliberate actionable stock fraud", get a grip.

At some point, people will realize how option payoffs work.

I wonder if there's any voice in your head that sees everyone laughing at you and wonders if you should try to figure out why they are laughing? Or maybe your mind just glosses over anything that goes against your preconceived notions on topics you don't understand?

Lol handpicked examples of when going long directional vol worked? NO WAY! I had no idea you could've gotten a 6 to 9 bagger on short term options (which wasn't really my point anyways.)

The stock has been range bound for most of the last few years, selling OTM vol has OVERALL been the best play. Obviously there are examples where short term this isn't the case but that's your style...

I'd much rather be long put spreads was the point, I think buying directional vol outside of a short term play in this name is a bad play. So many ways to take advantage of that high implied volatility as opposed to just buying puts.

Holy ****, please for the love of god read the second line of the "Truth table" and click links


I dare u not to laugh

https://www.tesla.com/blog/not-so-revealing-story

Thanks, almost tilt responded

Let's take a look at those January 2020 $200 puts and assume our objective is to make at least 3-1 on our money. In order to achieve that target (spending $35 on a single put) we need the stock to hit $95 (remember the stock is trading at $292 right now) by expiration. If instead we were to buy the $200/$150 (selling a $150 put for $20) put spread we only have to spend $15 in order to achieve the same r/r and the stock only has to get to $152.5 by expiration. Your gains are capped at $50 (3.3x) but think about how nuts that is that if the company were to go bankrupt, you'd still only get a 6x return potential on those options (without hedging) which is a horrible r/r for any company of this size and scope and it all has to happen in the next 20 months. Outside of quick short term flips, selling options (yes even covered calls/puts if you are long/short the underlying) is a must in some capacity.

I hear flamethrowers are flying off the shelves!

I like diagonals in TSLA. Long the sep 300 put and short the may 270 put. if stock stays at 300 will still make a profit rolling the short put and have no risk to the downside. staying small and adding if musk fleeces the sheep on earnings or twitter

spurious could disclose if you're doing bong rips or drinking vodka with your butt before posting?

Perhaps you feel that capturing the put premium when the stock falls in price (but not below the strike) at expiration as contrary to a long position?

Do you agree that an effective hedge here is a short position, i.e. covered puts?

Are you also aware that holding sold puts until expiration adds risk, whereas if the stock rises sufficiently in price the investor can simply close the position and not wait until expiration to capture (almost) all of the premium? Which implies that the investor wants the stock to rise, and not fall?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/carolineodo...elay-elon-musk

To be fair, at least he isn't as bad as Ross Gerber, who somehow is able to invest 10M in TSLA without understanding how market cap works or even what it is:

http://quoththeraven.podbean.com/e/q..****er-on-tesla/

How this guy gets 1M a day in deposits is a mystery. I feel as if I have chosen the wrong career with competition like that.