Calling it autopilot, for one

Had to cover over half my position between 280 and 291

It's weird knowing that this is a bankrupt company but still should stay short here in short run


Still holding long dated puts because they aren't moving near as much as one would expect with this rally

Better to cover on the great news and reshort. Long term bear means that - long term - but it doesn't mean you shouldn't get out of the way after a big dump followed by bullish news that will embolden the longs and scare the shorts. Enron and Valeant graphs are instructive imo if you're going to short something like this. Multiple 10-30% runs even after bankruptcy became pretty likely to the smart money.

Swing and a miss. Autopilots evolved over a long period of time. They went from performing a limited flight control operations to a much broader, more complete set. Autopilots in autos are evolving. The basic function of determining a navigation solution(s) while in motion happens in airplane autopilots as well as car autopilots. Speed and accuracy requirements in determining navigation solution are different for cars. You can perhaps rightly say Tesla autopilots suck but it is an autopilot nonetheless.

Autopilot

Quote:

An autopilot is a system used to control the trajectory of an aircraft without constant 'hands-on' control by a human operator being required. Autopilots do not replace human operators, but instead they assist them in controlling the aircraft. This allows them to focus on broader aspects of operations such as monitoring the trajectory, weather and systems.[1]

First Autopilots

In the early days of aviation, aircraft required the continuous attention of a pilot to fly safely. As aircraft range increased, allowing flights of many hours, the constant attention led to serious fatigue. An autopilot is designed to perform some of the tasks of the pilot.

The first aircraft autopilot was developed by Sperry Corporation in 1912. The autopilot connected a gyroscopic heading indicator and attitude indicator to hydraulically operated elevators and rudder. (Ailerons were not connected as wing dihedral was counted upon to produce the necessary roll stability.) It permitted the aircraft to fly straight and level on a compass course without a pilot's attention, greatly reducing the pilot's workload.

.....
Not all of the passenger aircraft flying today have an autopilot system. Older and smaller general aviation aircraft especially are still hand-flown, and even small airliners with fewer than twenty seats may also be without an autopilot as they are used on short-duration flights with two pilots. The installation of autopilots in aircraft with more than twenty seats is generally made mandatory by international aviation regulations. There are three levels of control in autopilots for smaller aircraft. A single-axis autopilot controls an aircraft in the roll axis only; such autopilots are also known colloquially as "wing levellers," reflecting their limitations. A two-axis autopilot controls an aircraft in the pitch axis as well as roll, and may be little more than a "wing leveller" with limited pitch oscillation-correcting ability; or it may receive inputs from on-board radio navigation systems to provide true automatic flight guidance once the aircraft has taken off until shortly before landing; or its capabilities may lie somewhere between these two extremes. A three-axis autopilot adds control in the yaw axis and is not required in many small aircraft.

Should have listened. At least the covered put selling has been good :/.

Should NOT stay short here

There is a great chart floating around showing Enron had so many double digit rally throughout their decline, including a 46% rally right before plummeting to 0

Got it, tesla owners should know the history of aviation

Def not a ridiculous take at all

I mean Tesla owners should probably read about the capabilities of an automation system before they trust their lives to it. The limitations of the system and the warnings are all very clearly outlined in the manual.

I mean the first part of that page seems to accurately describe Autopilot's various features. The part labeled "Full Self Driving Capability" has this paragraph that pretty clearly indicates it isn't yet available and is only an upgraded hardware suite.

LOL you claim that Tesla using the term autopilot is hype and I clearly pointed out that it isn't. Then you make a ridiculous statement that how are people supposed to know what an autopilot is. Good grief man, admit that you don't know what the hell you are getting into by taking a short position in this stock.

Of course potential customers actually do this. Only speculators taking short positions that have no clue as to what they're getting into think that potential customers wouldn't read about the capabilities.

"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”

Even the dumbest of bulls like spurious know calling it auto pilot is a form of hype.

Congrats on clearing a really high bar

adios and keeed: you're very naive to think all, or even most, Tesla drivers have read the manual and disclaimers about the Autopilot system. We have very clear evidence that drivers have bought into the hype around it and either disregard or never learn how limited the functionality is. The best evidence is the string of crashes and two deaths that have resulted from drivers trusting this system to be something it isn't.

Tesla is negligent despite their disclaimers because it's unreasonable to expect everyone to read, understand, and trust disclaimers. You can't sell a cellphone that explodes if you shout into it even if you state very clearly in the user's manual that the phone will explode under such conditions, and that it's not to be used as a phone for heated conversations. I bought some sunglasses recently, and they came with a sticker that said:

CALIFORNIA PROP 65 WARNING: THIS PRODUCT CONTAINS CHEMICALS KNOWN TO CAUSE CANCER

I still put those glasses on my face. And I do not expect to get cancer from them. I expect that the government would not allow the sale of a product that would actually give me cancer just from wearing them. That's the precedent in this country, and people who use Autopilot are under the same impression: that since it is touted as a self-driving functionality, the government wouldn't allow using it to result in death.

Tesla has to know drivers will use Autopilot to drive their cars without oversight. In fact, they do, and they die. This is why it is negligent.

Huh?

somigosaden,

you make no sense. What could Tesla potentially do if people like you are actually buying cancer sunglasses? Your entire post makes no sense. Should they stop Autopilot because it can kill someone? Rolling it out until no one dies is certainly not an option.

If people are dumb enough to buy cancer sunglasses then why bother with disclaimers at all? It is public knowledge that Autopilot requires your oversight. If the driver does not bother then don't blame TSLA. If you get cancer because you thought that the cancer sunglasses are not actually causing cancer then it's neither the government's nor the producer's fault - they've warned you accordingly.

Spurious, bro, you need to get out of your bubble and get out more. Take a little time off and travel. You haven't the faintest clue what the world (or anything) is like, yet you hold forth with strong opinions and conclusions on those hilariously wrong and uninformed opinions.

California is a crazy state where everything has a cancer warning. They just added it for all coffee, because roasting coffee beans causes it to contain the contents of a Maillard reaction, which contains trace elements of carcinogens - like everything, such as toast and cooked meat and more broadly broccoli and nuts. Anything that has cancer causing agents - which is practically everything in the entire world - has a big fat cancer warning on it in California. Half the hotels have placcards saying the rooms have products that cause cancer. Heaps of consumer goods do too. Even though neither are any different to Germany or Holland or wherever you live. It's Proposition 65. He even laid it out for you.

somigosaden's point is that we live in such a disclaimer and warning happy world, particularly in California, which is legit bat**** insane on the issue, that few are taking the warnings to "keep your attention on the road at all times" warnings and disclaimers as anything other than the standard legal and regulatory ass covering. That's if they even read the manual, which most don't. Their view of autopilot comes from the media and Tesla salesman and Tesla's disgustingly dishonest sales page. Why else are people watching Harry Potter while their head leaves their body as Tesla passes under a giant truck it didn't see?

And who could blame them? When ordinary coffee and sunglasses and hotel rooms and a thousand other things come with big cancer and birth defect warnings in California, people stop taking warnings seriously and see them as regulatory or legal ass covering. Particularly when the company in question is massively hyping their product far beyond its capabilities.

I dispute this.

If you mean "the info is out there for the public to find", then I guess okay. But the more common meaning would be "generally known by the public at large". This is clearly not true. I don't think it's even generally known to people that drive Teslas.

Have any of you done test drives in a Tesla? My dad did one yesterday and they warned him pretty clearly what he should or shouldn't do. So, public knowledge in the Tesla driver population - not literally the whole public. I stand corrected. I've been warned by the sales personell as well (that was prior to the latest crash).

TS,
you are again going off. I haven't been in California in a while but his point was that it's somehow entirely Tesla's fault (or the government's) if you don't do what they are asking you to do.
It's ironic that you fault me for having strong opinions when most of my work ITT is to argue against stupid arguments that being brought forward (especially the ones where you, for example, find sources from years ago and say that this is the current state).

The strongest and most central opinion that I have is that Tesla will be the leading car manufacturer in 10 years. So far, the trajectory of the stock price is going in that direction.

You guys need to stop being ridiculous. Have any of you actually driven the car let alone own one?

When you engage the driver assist you get a clear warning to keep hands on the wheel at all times. It senses when you don't and will disable the autopilot features if you don't adhere to the nagging which is a flashing blue light around the screen. It is essentially impossible to drive the car without knowing the limitations of the autopilot features.

Anecdote for fun. I get a call from a buddy of mine. He tells me how the car almost certainly saved his life. Driving home late in fog he has eyes on the road and uses autopilot assistance. He gets sensor warning and brakes apply swiftly. He sees basically nothing until a car coming the wrong way on a California freeway almost hits him. The media blows up autopilot deaths but the real data is easy to access with before and after studies and with some time it will all become clear.

This is patently absurd.

ITT people who have no idea how cars work discuss how cars work.

The idea that anyone who sits in a Tesla and thinks Autopilot means you can take a nap is totally idiotic. Up there with cars being produced via batch production, or that cameras are all that SDC need. But yet all three of these views have been espoused by the same person.

This is clearly a false statement as written. Do you have any idea about how the public uses and understands technology?

Ridiculous caricature/straw man aside - which is hilariously still wrong - there are a lot of people who think it's safe to take your eyes off the road for extended periods in Autopilot. Which is what's at issue, not your ridiculous straw man. You have Musk literally telling people that autopilot is safer on highways than a human driver. That it has multiple collision avoidance systems that keep them safe.

Why else would intelligent successful people be watching Harry Potter with autopilot on, or not taking any corrective action in the many seconds they have before autopilot follows a lane at full speed into a concrete divider or fire truck? They have a false sense of security and trust in Autopilot, that's why.
They were batteries that were being test prototyped, not cars in production. WTF is wrong with you? You've already been corrected on this. You get an idea stuck in your head like a fixed delusion and it never leaves. Typical Aspergers.
With current camera technology (insufficient resolution and range and speed, insufficient processing speed), no, cameras aren't enough. It is Musk who claims that cameras + a bit of radar are enough (he claims everything needed for Fully Self Driving/Full Autonomy is already on his car as of a year ago), not me. LIDAR is a useful stopgap/shortcut until camera resolution and processing is sufficient. But you need much better cameras and processing units to get to level 5, because of boundary cases.

And yes, of course cameras are enough if the cameras have good enough resolution and range, and the processing unit is fast enough. Let's point out the obvious for Captain Slow: Humans manage to drive with just cameras. Now add microsecond reaction time and 360 degree constant awareness and a safety-first programming, plus no drinking or speeding or tiredness or texting while driving, and you'll realize camera-only autonomy is sufficient to create far better drivers than humans.
Yes - that person is you. I have never espoused the views above. This is just more hilarious self ownage by you.

I agree that it's idiotic to put blind faith in brand new technology, but as someone with no special knowledge about how cars work (like most buyers), I assume "Autopilot" means the car is piloted automatically. I assume it means "fully self-driving" like it says on the sales brochure.

Given that some fraction of the consumer base are doofuses who are going to believe the fancy ads and won't read to page 67 in the manual or whatever, it seems pretty irresponsible for Tesla to continue to pitch this as "fully self-driving autopilot" instead of "driver assist" or "adaptive driving" or whatever like other companies are doing.