It was a masterclass in spin. They also changed 5000/week to "approximately" 5000/week as well end of quarter to "about" 3 months.

The cleverest move was leaking the 2000/week yesterday though. It took the sting out of the headline miss (since it was already widely reported), and allowed them to spin all the positives.

That's fair, but at some point don't the institutional players realize the game is up and exit? How is now not the time for that? What other good news is around the corner to hold the price up for a decent exit?


Also, what happens when cash burn in q1 is a billion l, deposits are down,revenue is flat, and margin is crushed? Who has big holdings entering that earnings call and shortly after?

ya, also egomaniac musk also released it at 3 am to imply what a workaholic he is


Of course he was actually in England for Stephen hawking funeral, such a leader

The continued ramp through 2018 is the good news. If they can successfully produce 5000 cars/week, they have proved competence in mass production and the bull case becomes a lot stronger. Generally institutions love growth and soaring revenue - look at NFLX - and if the ramp continues from <1000 now to 7000 or so by year end, revenue is climbing a huge amount. Revenue will climb 4x in a year by end of year. Have you ever met an institution that didn't lose their mind on monster revenue growth?
It held all its value after the January earnings call disaster. Why would people who held sell now? And your arguments would have weight at the $330 it was a few weeks ago. Now it's at $260.

Separate to all of this, TSLA is a 3-5 market beta depending on the situation. That's mostly how it got to $380 to begin with and some of how it got back down. So you're mostly making a market bet given that catastrophe has been averted for another quarter, the worst fears have been put to rest, and the carrot/gold at the end of the rainbow is back in place. Musk specifically talked up quality/reliability (calling M3 better than Model S/X and citing very high satisfaction), which was one concern, and that production as climbing rapidly, above both S/X combined now. Those are key milestones.

Keybanc analysts said it well:
This is how the street will view this result.

I have no idea how they can be viewed as successfully ramping right now, at the same time part of me feels like you are right

lol

If they could exit, they would, but to exit they need to find another investor to buy their stake. That's the hard part. Instead, institutional investors tend to keep their investment afloat until they can actually ditch it.

If Tesla actually starts producing at 5K, that seems like a huge positive step for the company.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors...me=teslamotors

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVJS...ature=youtu.be

its on r/teslamotors


According to the folks there, basically the faded lane markings tricked the autopilot into believing that the lane shifted, so the car starts moving left. In reality, the lane marker that the autopilot is orignally inside of is simply faded, and it erroneously detects a new shifted lane. The new lane that the car thinks is actually the outside bounds lane of the exit ramp. So the car heads straight for the barrier. the part where the car doesnt detect the stationary barrier ahead remains true.


Part of that is apparently because the camera and the AI which runs the recognition of the camera stills is only good for lane markings and road signs. Not actual objects.


Also people have reported that this is a very common accident site and that there used to be sand barrels and an extended crush barrier. But over the years there have been so many accidents at that exact exit ramp that the crush barrier had been whittled down to nothing.

Have my doubts about the conclusion reached in what I bolded.

The Autonomous Car: A Diverse Array of Sensors Drives Navigation, Driving, and Performance

I have worked on airplane navigation systems in the past. Even though it is obvious that airplanes travel at a higher velocity than automobiles, the distances involved with self driving automobiles relative to other vehicles makes self driving cars a more daunting technical challenge than free flight IMO.

adios,
GM, Waymo etc are highly advanced and have completed level 4, including complete object recognition and full mapping of surfaces. They are almost level 5 ready apart from some boundary cases.

Tesla is a dangerous level 2 child's toy, hyped up as being higher by extremely dishonest PR and (previously) fawning press and analysts, not to mention the worthless ******s in this thread who can't think at all and continued to think that Tesla were ahead despite me laying out the clear evidence for them. It has horrifically stupid algorithms (follow the lane, if you can't fine a line, swerve!) and a very low level of development.

I hope that helps you understand what's going on here.

adios,
The link and graphic in this post might help you better understand what you're looking at with Tesla vs others.

So what you are saying is, it was the drivers fault?

I think anyone using Tesla autopilot regularly is gambling with their life and Tesla should be forced to take it offline. They are meant to be the car company of the future yet a million miles behind in the most futuristic concept to hit the car industry since ever, how did they f that up so bad?!

Also so many bears in this thread now think might be making Tooth a little uncomfortable lol!

The stock is tanking for the first time in ages that's why people are coming in.

AP is still safer than regular driving according to Tesla.

TS is claiming BS and referencing paid by automotive companies consultants studies on the subject. GM who has a history of actually killing people would bring out something that worked if they had something that was best in class. They don't and as such TS claims they are the best and what not are silly.

Almost everything that has materialized so far has been opposite of what TS claimed. TSLA bears will have a strong 1.5 years but after that they'll shut up. A lot of people ITT have no ****ing idea how manufacturing works and have never worked for a company that manufactures something.

We will see in a few years when the majors will try to bring out their electric cars how well they'll be doing. The TSLA killer GM Bolt sells almost as bad as TSLA is at weekly production rates. It's important to keep in mind that the majors are actually not that good at selling EVs while TSLA is very good at it.

As I've said, the upcoming 1.5 years will be good for TSLA bears but eventually reality will materialize and TSLA will solve their problems with manufacturing while the majors will have difficulties solving their sales issue.


The Autopilot discussion is completely blown out of proportion. It's ridiculous to imply the driver is to blame in the recent instance but by and large the technology works quite well.

Let's be fair here, I give u credit for always posting but all the other bulls left around 360


Tooth and others have posted throughout the rise, including myself.

I agree with you on this.

It's been shown that these statistics are false.

You have zero clue how the world works. It takes years of testing to make sure something is safe. Musk puts out his latest update immediately and uses pedestrians, bikes and his drivers as beta testers.

Are you seriously claiming that Waymo aren't ahead of Tesla because it's not in a commercial car? Are you that legitimately unhinged and divorced from reality?
Confirmed legit crazy. This is the state of Tesla "autopilot"

There are lots of examples that weren't lethal where people were seriously injured by autopilot not spotting objects that every other major navigates with ease. GM and Waymo navigate inner city traffic, pedestrians, signs, bikes, traffic lights, stop signs, with full autonomy for millions of miles. Tesla can't even handle fire trucks on highways, concrete barriers, erroneous lane markings, or bikes, on highways. In your deeply deranged mind, you think Tesla are ahead? You are crazy bro.

I'm a short term bull now, have been since the quarter news came in at $260. Now $279 in a bad market, shorts are getting killed.

Been arguing black and blue with people in private chat not to short Tesla, that a short is absolutely terrible here. The way the PR was done around this delivery data release was very bullish and the future is rosy in bull eyes and uncertain in bear eyes. With the short float near saturated, that's classic Tesla long mechanics'.

This is why people need to question your sources:
https://newatlas.com/tesla-autopilot-fema/46045/

The article you are quoting is from October 2016.



You know you are so far off reality that you resort to stuff like this. This is laughable and why it is dangerous for people to read your posts and think you are right. You make up a reality that doesn't exist.

Spurious,
I know it's from late 2016. This is the time when you were claiming Tesla autopilot were far ahead, while simultaneously almost killing bike riders. At the same time Waymo and others were successfully navigating inner city traffic.

When did Tesla crash into a divider in good conditions with heaps of time to avoid it? When did they crash into a fire truck?

You are a deeply deranged Musk fanboy without a hint of self awareness. You even go conspiracy ****** above - as if the majors would pay Navigant, a well regarded research company who's made good calls on everything including the GFC, to make Tesla look bad in some conspiracy that includes Waymo, Ford, Daimler-Bosch, BMW-Intel

I wouldn't be surprised if you're in 9/11 truth as well. You're like a reefer smoking mature age college student without a clue on anything.

Absolutely, as with every publicized autonomous driving death afaik my conclusion is the same... driver at fault

LOL at the intellectual dishonesty in this post. All I claimed was claimed was that posters conclusion that TSLA doesn’t use proximity sensors to detect hard objects is complete BS. Hope this helps:

Must be getting a little nervous short position. TSLA way up there today. Shorts getting squeezed

You linked a general article about an autonomous car in response to a specific claim about what Tesla has. I was pointing out that other autonomous driving programs are far ahead of Tesla, so the points in that general article are irrelevant. As are proximity sensors when traveling at 50 mph. Tesla has forward radar but the programming to decide whether to stop or follow the lane at full speed into the obstacle (bike, fire truck, semi truck, concrete divider) is clearly horrible.

Yeah I bet. I've been bullish/sold puts since the Musk spin came out at $260. I don't know why shorts wouldn't listen to the biggest bear telling them this has turned bullish and that shorting is a terrible idea, but oh well. $285 now.

TS,

I could correct you time and time again, as it is very easy. You have said the state is this and linked an article from 18 months ago. You now try to change the narrative. Your friends in the Breitbart comment section might fall for it. Btw, Navigant is still neither a research company nor widely respected for their research. They are what they are: a consultancy paid by companies who use their consultancy services.

You don't even rise to the level of coherent. I give you a research report on the state of autonomous driving from a well regarded billion dollar research company, showing Tesla dead last (something which fits with all the other knowledge we have - GM have full autonomous ride sharing running for their employees in inner city traffic), and you come back like a spaced out dickhead claiming that the report is a conspiracy, paid for by GM or who knows who, to make Tesla look bad (for what possible reason???). You're legit crazy, bro. Do you have any evidence whatsoever that GM paid for this report? Or did your crazy mind simply make that up?

You can't deal with the cognitive dissonance of the fact that your hero Musk lied about autonomous driving and is far behind the majors, so you simply make up conspiracies. It's weird.

You're a ****ing idiot. The state of self driving competition report that Navigant does is a yearly report that Navigant does on the industry (as well tons of other industry research in all fields - they make their money from selling the reports). You think they trash their reputation because GM pays them to put the Tesla dot on the left, while putting all their major competitors (that actually matter) right up with GM? Are you that clueless about how the world works?? It'd be comical if it wasn't sad.

Nothing has changed with Tesla. It still can't detect obstacles and still blindly follows lines until it hits stuff.

You want more recent? Yesterday, with an actual video
Tesla on autopilot almost crashes into guardrail
There are also videos of Tesla following the line right into the barrier where the recent crash happened. Tesla "autopilot" software is so utterly incompetent it has no proper mapping of its environment, instead having tard-level line following, right into barriers.

Tesla Autopilot confuses markings toward barrier in recreation of fatal Model X crash at exact same location

January this year (can't detect a huge fire truck with plenty of warning and slams into it at 65mph):

Tesla ‘on Autopilot’ slams into parked fire truck on California freeway at 65mph

I guess these are all conspiracies too - if you think GM is paying Navigant for a yearly research report and telling them to put the Tesla dot in last place (while putting their main competitors right up with GM??), why wouldn't you think that someone hacked the car's system to make Tesla crash? I wouldn't be surprised if you're a 9/11 truther too.

Tesla "autonomy" is poor quality and dangerous software that's far behind the competition, in last place in fact. The competition are solidly on deployed level 4 while Tesla isn't even safely on level 2 yet.