Pretty weak analysis, how are the margins and vehicle performance compared to Tesla, and why are we even comparing the two since they are in completely different categories of vehicles?

The Model S will sell like crazy in China and Tesla will easily beat the guided 35k vehicles in 2014. I would estimate they could sell close to 50k vehicles this year and this all builds to the Model X release. I wouldn't expect profit either since they have so much expansion to undertake all over the world as well as the factory, the similarities with AMZN are pretty remarkable in my opinion in terms of valuation for the companies and outlook.

Thoughts on TSLA long term --- 2-4 years from now?

How overpriced is the stock currently?

Hugely overpriced, in terms of the probability of ever earning its market cap. But there's a non-zero chance they'll grow into a genuine $200 billion market cap, which is more than can be said for a lot of other tech crap.

Regardless of overpricing, while the good news keeps rolling in, it'll do what it does. If they go to 10K and then 20K cars/quarter, faster than expected, and the buzz continues, no reason it won't hit $500. You've got short term buzz, a consistently high short %, and a long term "sky is the limit" possibility, and no doubt a bunch of algos who love playing off it all.

Best time to trade Tesla is when it adjusts to major new news. That takes more than a day and involves significant correction.

Very. They need to be selling these vehicles for over a $1,000,000 per unit to get anywhere near where the market is valuing them.

But this.

The valuation is of course absurd, but unlike many companies that have been so overvalued in the past, there is not an ongoing cash drain. So the PR machine / hype could easily sustain an even higher price for a very long time.

Current pricing is basically assuming they can pull off the giga battery factory in a successful way. I'd be fairly concerned buying at these price levels given that variable. Although if the model X gets the kind of reviews and sales as model s they can probably goat panasonic into taking the leap and investing into the giga factory. It seems panasonic isn't yet ready to sign on.

Musk is a guy who, despite zero expertise, build a rocket company that slashed costs by over 50% in a highly complex and technical industry where the brightest minds thought it couldn't be done.

You want to bet that guy can't get a battery factory up and running, in a world where batteries are a huge and unstoppable growth area?

I think he is more likely than not to pull off the factory, which is no small feat, but it seems current pricing already assumes the giga factory will go well, no? And it does seem like Panasonic is waiting to commit for whatever reason.

Market Cap: $25,000,000,000
Quarterly Net Income: -$50,000,000

Can't complain about the stock's performance the last few weeks

last week they moved the price point from 345 to over 380.

Up 5.4% afterhours
EDIT: 7.44%

I don't understand Tesla's patent-sharing strategy.

Is it actually beneficial to Tesla or is it truly for the benefit of the world? If it is the latter, why isn't there a huge backlash from shareholders?

They are not a car company, they are a battery company, a soon-to-be incredibly prolific and efficient battery company.

Sharing the technology likely benefits them because it creates more demand for their batteries.

It's great PR at least. Their reasoning was that the people copying were using their patents as blueprints anyway. And many of the patents they gave away for free will help their customers by making charging standards etc so that their customers might be able to charge their Teslas at BMW-superchargers in the future.

I guess their are pretty happy with being the innovator and having the other car companies a few years behind them. The profitable market tends to reward the innovator. See Apple as an example, even though Samsung are down to copying their ads straight off they still make like 90% of the profit in the market.

But mainly I think it is PR, project an image that Tesla are the good guy trying to save the world, going their own way, creating this cult. Tesla does very little PR, their customers are their PR-department. This way they save a lot of money on marketing.

Also legal battles tend to be very costly.

It seems that shareholders liked the decision of to release the patents, but that might say more about the investors than the decision.

Short answer: the patents are close to worthless.

Might be true, but it definitely shows an attitude of not trying to enhance shareholder value but rather trying to play the futurist/philanthropist.

Apple has never and will never be an innovator on technology. They are brilliant at marketing a premium-label fashion brand.

no, they plan to license it. No car maker has a monopoly in any niche in the market, and electric cars wont change that, even if Tesla uncovers some ridiculous battery related breakthrough in 20 years (and not any other of the car manufacturers collectively worth hundreds of billions) they would have no reason to horde that technology, especially under the premise of why electric cars are built in the first place.

Do you own any aapl products? Just wondering if this is comming from someone familiar with their products.

Apple might not don't to too much invention, but they sure do innovation.

Not sure if we can call the Apple Watch a premium fashion when they cost 1/10-1/100 of their competitors. One really cool thing I like with iPhone is that even if Bill Gates is 100000x richer than me he doesn't have a better smartphone than me imo. When in history was that ever possible?

This is ridiculous.

I'm no apple fan-boy but this statement is outrageous.

RickySteve is pretty much spot on. Apple is a software company that puts their software/brand on premium hardware that they pay other companies to produce. The only thing Apple is innovative in is their branding/packaging.

So software doesn't count?

So being one of the most innovative software companies in the world is just an afterthought... right.