Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
You have to give Musk credit for being brilliant at PR, it's indisputable the value that brings to anything he's involved with. It puts a floor under the stock as well the fact that he and his brother still own 20%+ of the company. The stock is pretty tightly coiled here, for a name that is supposedly so volatile its been between $300-$360 for most of the last year but again it has been lagging the market (and a lot of its tech/auto peers) for a good six months now.
Tesla runs at a beta of 2-5 and 2017 was one of the craziest low vol runs in history thanks to Trump.
The fact that this stock won't flush is amazing. A big part of it is the market + its beta for sure - it would work in reverse if the market went down - but I think a big part of it also the perpetual idiot donkey + dangling carrot that Musk has managed to set up.
Your average Tesla investor
Basically, tell huge lies about your timetable, push the positive and criminally omit the negative, create anticipation for the next stage which is always imminent and hits people FOMO. Use words like "exponential" to talk about your imminent ramp. No true believer wants to miss out on the imminent ramp when you do this. For example, Musk by his own inadvertent admission in the last conference call knew that production had zero chance of even making a fraction of his promised 5000/week due to major flaws with the battery production system requiring 6-9 months to fix, yet he doubled and tripled down on 5000/week at the end of 2017.
The bottom line is that all the PR isn't going to matter though if Tesla messes up the Model 3, as they seem to be doing:
Tesla employees say automaker is churning out a high volume of flawed parts requiring costly rework
That tanked the stock today. It's worth reading if you're a bull or bear. The picture emerging is of a totally incompetent cluster**** on every level - which is what you'd expect if you have a narcissist with zero mass production experience trying to mass produce a car using special sauce vertical integration. Cars ain't rockets.
I don't have a read on whether this goes down in flames now or in a few months time as it becomes clear the Model 3 is a lemon, and costing them $5K/car in net losses, and that their "let's not beta test" vertical integration attempt is a predictable failure. But they're bleeding cash like crazy, their various gimmicks like getting advance deposits or mortgaging off all their future S & X lease revenue or mortgaging all their assets are gone. So unless they deliver well on this they're bankrupt - they have negative equity at this point, will have negative cash flow if they can't get world class M3 manufacturing up (losing more every car they sell) and need tens of billions for the next stage.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 03-14-2018 at 08:24 PM.