I wonder how much of a moron NxtWrldChamp feels like right now for not selling at $380 when it was a screaming sell and ---EV to hold.

We're both in the same boat TS, no positions for either of us.

Over/under on number of Model 3 reservation holders who will get the federal tax credit?

I would assume "everyone" in the near future. By the time Tesla has enough cars produced, Trump will be indicted and the subsidies will be extended.

I don't think this will be a large problem for them. They can even play around and stop selling in the US to buy some time.

If you bought those $380 2019 put options a few months back you would have made like 80% already.

I'd take the under on 50,000, given that the M3 is 3 months behind their recently schedule by Tesla's own calculations. In July there were only 79,000 left, and they sell what, 5K/month S&X in the US?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/28/tesl...s-edmunds.html
So 79K in July - 5K * 6 months = < 50K
Spurious, I find it impossible to tell if you're serious sometimes.

https://electrek.co/2017/10/05/tesla...-credits-2018/

You are a clown, you have a difficulty understanding basic things, maybe that's why you have difficulties understanding what's going on.

The article quoted agrees precisely with my take on this (<50K model 3). You are a generous man, beclowning yourself for my benefit/amusement.

Let me explain it for you.

Article says there are slightly less than 60,000 credits left
S&X are reducing this around 4K/month
So it's a stone cold lock that the the answer to this question:
Is < 50K. Probably < 40K.

I assume Tesla is selling on the EV tax credit phase out news in the tax plan. Not buying it though, in the long run I think this helps Tesla as it removes an effective subsidy for the competition, given that Tesla have nearly used it up.

I guess it will dent overall EV sales though. Tesla still had the half credits even after the $7.5K is gone, which are now gone. Some reservation holders will probably pull their money out too. I guess it's short term bearish news.

He was asking about federal tax credits, you know they have 200k at the full and then they get reduced, right?

Seems optimistic to assume tesla has a long run

Stop selling in the US, lol

Credit to spurious for posting today tho


Also we can lock NWC as the first bull to claim he already sold immediately after a big move, certainly not the last tho

Would love to see where I said this

if they can find passionate EV salepeople to stick on the floor, this should turn around in no time

on a more serious note, my tsla analysis on the $380 valuation was a rube question. are the rubes the established auto industry that have been in a highly competitive industry for decades that musk could step in to and dominate? or was it investors piling in to musks vision of total electric domination while colonizing mars and fingering a divorcee having a meltdown?

First they'll have actually start producing some products to sell.

I'm convinced Spurious is some 10th level troll genius. This is just gold....it makes me feel tingly.

I think people in here have a very difficult time understanding how the EV tax credits program looks like and then incorporate it in the fact that a ****load of reservation holders are non-US citizens.

Juan, I got your joke, just felt bad laughing at 2 Spurious comments in a row when he at least is willing to post today unlike the other bulls

An excellent article about the Tesla factory courtesy of cicakman. Musk's fraud on his stockholders is an open and shut case if even 1/4 of this is true.

https://jalopnik.com/teslas-hell-thr...1819917980/amp

5000/week by the end of the year was never possible, and worse, not even close to possible, and any car company CEO ought to have known or at least moderated his statements rather than confidently restating them. He lost a lot of people a lot of money who bought or held at $380, relying on those statements.

True, you'd have to be mentally disturbed to believe anything that Musk says or see him as anything other than a fraud/charlatan, but that's not much of a defense.

sounds like you lost a lot of money not selling short there bro

That's a hilarious read.
Suddenly, my donk short at $340 several months ago doesn't seem so donkish now.

My buddy is the longest Tesla nerd ever. I listened to the conf call yesterday - does he normally stumble and mumble like that? Wow that was not impressive. AT one point he said he was there last Sunday at 2AM assisting on a calibration issue. For me this is a huge red flag, not something to be impressed by.

Anyways - what does this company look like when they eventually get to 5k Model 3's per week? He is claiming 25% margins on the Model 3 on full build out. The big thing of course will be when they have to issue more debt/capital and the reasons therein

If you want to profit of the electric car boom, Sherritt (cheap cobalt and nickel play low on cost curve) and Lynas corp (rare earths for permanent magnets) are two excellent picks:

Courtesy of this blog:
https://reminiscencesofastockblogger...y-the-ev-ramp/

If Nickel and Cobalt go up 50%, Sherritt is trading at about 2x FCF, and at current NdPr prices, Lynas is trading at like 7x 2018 earnings. Sherritt also has a low cost oil play that will profit if oil makes a final run.

I think we will see a real shortage of some of these EV related commodities unless prices go up significantly, as it takes time to ramp up production, especially without completely demolishing the environment in the case of the rare earths.

As opposed to Tesla trading at 20x forward earnings if like 20 hard to predict things go right.

disclosure is that I own both .

Sweet earnings call Elon!

Do we think the next capital raise is priced in? 300 feels way too high still. I am not liquidating any short positions.