Fun fact


Did you know teslas legal team is led by Todd maron, elons divorce attorney

Elon seems to have an issue separating his personal and business life, much to the detriment of his shareholders

musk started dating the chick who made herself famous for divorcing depp and having a public meltdown

the ceo with lazer focus on space ships, colonizing mars, delaying deadlines to work on natural disaster power grids, and plugging holes in divorcees having a meltdown

Tesla got saved today by a ripping QQQ that pulled up everything. Sub $300 otherwise. Two downgrades, news that parts orders have been pushed back for months.

Elon is a good liar/bull****ter/spinner but you'd have to be pretty worried going long into earnings. Questions will be asked about Model 3 and the radio silence from Musk isn't encouraging.

Not sure on a pre-earnings trade though.

Yeah or maybe the "news" you breathlessly reported earlier just isn't very significant...

Since you don't trade, I'll explain...today is one of the largest QQQ jumps since 2000 and Tesla is in the red, uniquely among all the big techs which are multiple points up. This is even after selling down 15% over the past two weeks. That says the news is extremely significant. You don't get panic selling and stop running when the market is ripping higher. On top of that Tesla is a high beta - it exaggerates market moves.

EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT NEWS GUYS

TSLA DOWN 1.5%!!!!!!

Big tech stocks are up because their earnings are crushing. TSLA is a bit down because all signs point to below target earnings.

edit: lolololol, ford and GM down more than TSLA is today. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I mean, it's almost like Amazon's killer earnings doesn't really effect how the market views Tesla stock. WEIRD RIGHT

Look you're an idiot and there's not much to be done about that. But for people who aren't irredeemable idiots, this is how markets work. Take Wednesday:



Notice QQQ (the index), FB and Tesla. There was no news on either FB or Tesla. Notice how closely they track the market, often tick for tick? Notice how FB tracks the market, but with exaggerated effect? Notice how Tesla tracks the market, but with very exaggerated effect? This is called beta. FB has a medium sized beta and TSLA has a huge one. Tesla often has 5x beta - for one tick in the market, Tesla moves 5 ticks.

Understanding this is important. When we have a down market and Tesla gets killed, don't believe the story is falling apart. When you have up market and Tesla rips to new highs, don't believe the crazy hype. Much of the effect is just high beta. Trump has more to do with Tesla at $380 (should have sold guys, but I digress), than Musk does.

This 3% down day was on a day without bad Tesla news. Tesla lost 3% thanks to a negative market. Now imagine what happens on a day when there's bad Tesla news AND the market rips higher. It's going to negate most of the impact of the bad news, in fact all of it most of the time because it's such a high beta. If the market goes the other way, the opposite effect happens and it becomes a feeding frenzy - you get panic selling which really drives it down , stops get run, etc, morons such as yourself who don't understand the market think "WOW that news must be bad!!". This can't really happen well on market up days on high betas - the market has a constant large inflow into baskets of stocks, which provides a bid under things.

I'm not really talking to you (you don't trade or invest I believe), but for others.
No it doesn't, but it affects the market, and that affects all tech stocks. Very strongly in the case of TSLA.

uh of course I understand that Tesla is correlated with broad stock indices, including QQQ. This is true of nearly all stocks, tech or not. It is a tech company in a way, but it doesn't overlap with amazon or facebook at all and only tangentially with a company like google. But it's also an auto company. I don't know why Ford and GM are down big today, but of course Tesla is correlated to domestic auto makers as well.

If the news today for Tesla was actually as bad as you seem to think then Tesla would be down, and down bigly. It is hilarious that you actually think that Tesla would be down huge on this INCREDIBLE NEWS but because Amazon posted incredible earnings that somehow "saved" Tesla.

Tesla is -2% as a high beta on a +3% tech market rip. Neither FB nor Apple posted earnings:



It's a higher beta than both and it's underperforming QQQ by 5%.

And yes it would be down bigly. Bad news + a selloff = panic mode, stops hit, etc. Bad news + monster tech bull day = it survives.

Tesla has close to zero correlation to the car stocks (it doesn't make cars of any note or profit), but it does follow the tech indexes/stocks closely. A bit like Enron - it didn't trade at all like an energy company, it was a "new paradigm" tech stock give a tech/newfangled shiny thing type valuation, because it was believed by the religious that it was going to put the old way of doing things out of business

right, other domestic automakers are down the same amount because....

^ one of the most profound things ever written in this thread.

I have no idea why the other automakers are down. Looks like standard daily variance for them. Here is Ford:



It's about as relevant as why GILD is down. Tesla has little in common with other automakers, trades on different exchanges, is in different indexes, captures different types of investors, has a vastly different beta. No relation and no relevant domestic car news. Other car makers don't get pulled up or down by QQQ. <shrugs>

both make cars bro

big if true

tbh i'm positively surprised they are atleast planning for up to 3000 m3/week in december and 10k sometime next summer. thought it would be worse.

that said, i still expect them to miss that by a wide margin.

Rumor is 3k week commitment which would make sense from a sellers side

I have long contemplating shorting TSLA, and with all the problems coming to the surface it seems like a good time to start a position. Any sensible arguments for waiting longer/not shorting at all?

Above your post are the first two posts in this thread from back in July of 2013. I feel like the second post is just as applicable now as it was 4 years ago. There will be ups and downs with model 3 production, but it will take a long time (months, a year, years?) before it is clear whether it is a winner or loser. As long as many investors have hope that it will be a winner, regardless of whether facts back that up, the stock could stay high for longer than you can withstand.

Someone could just use a wide stop loss. And watch their bet sizing.

Woah if true.

nice earnings report

He blamed the media! The nerd Trump analogy comes full circle


They are side stepping the capital raise question, only one person even hinted at it, this thing is falling apart

I think you want to wait to short when they actually start getting volumes on Model 3. Before they reach production volumes, they can spin this story about being close to a Big thing happening. But once they actually start shipping production levels of these, we'll quickly learn how much money they aren't making as well as all the other potential problems that will derail that production.

Ideally this production ramp would start just before a bear market and you will make all the money.