I bought at 170 and sold at 168, now back in at $150. We could see $130 by friday, im in for the long haul now. Will buy more if it drops too.

While it is fair to say Musk didn't start Tesla to maximize his ROI, he clearly has stated that he understands that the only way to change markets away from traditional fossil fuel consumption/transportation is to make compelling products that can out compete traditional sources in the market place. You can't do that without pushing towards profitability.

Tesla seems kind of like an Amazon play from a decade ago, investors love it even though it doesn't make much money, because it appears keen to capture a significant market share (EVs) that people think is going to be a big deal over the next two decades. Hell, amazon still doesn't make a ton of profit, but their market share is pretty impressive.

Yeah, Tesla is nothing like Amazon. Zero similarities.

And EVs aren't going to be a big deal unless there are major breakthroughs in battery technology. At which point Tesla's advantages are dead, since once you have the battery, all that's left is an electric motor and a shell and trimmings (EVs are far less complex than gasoline cars).

I'm not getting that from the article. I'm getting the lack of a moat.

They've taken a different approach, sure. Instead of creating large batteries, they're using small modular ones. All advantages, such as higher energy density, flow from that design decision, but beyond the decision, there's nothing special. Musk is good at clever design decisions. He seems unmatched at creatively thinking about process engineering. Look at how SpaceX cut rocket costs. But they don't have a "moat" that will scale to anything approaching their valuation, or continue to exist once battery tech advances. They've researched an unprofitable small capped niche, and succeeded in that niche. No one is following them because there is no reason to. Understanding the tech is important, and licensing for something that's not worth researching and capex costs, hence the interest from car makers, but in a way it proves that Tesla have nothing of interest.

Let me put it this way. If there were sufficient batteries available at an affordable price for even 2% of the world car market, and if there was plausible growth potential in that capacity, Tesla would not have a moat, and no one would be licensing their "technology".

Battery technology has shown a steady improvement over the last decade of around 7-8% per year. I think it is fair to assume that will continue, although it doesn't increase year by year but averages out that way. I think the value of Musk's marketing ability (for lack of a better term) and the tesla brand is a legit network effect on the EV market. Sure it isn't the same as Amazon, but it doesn't need to capture amazon like market share to be very successful either. Apple, for example, only has what? 20% of the smart phone market. I think Musk has a good shot of ending up in Steve Jobs territory in garnering a profitable even cult like following.

Amazon is actually a good example.

Amazon is much much more than a book seller now.

I was very impressed with Musk's talk in Germany the other week, he did a good job of selling not just the model s car but the idea behind tesla. That idea is that spending your dollars on tesla is a investment, is a vote in the long term success of the EV market, in a way that it isn't with other car manufacturers, who are only reluctantly dipping their toes in EVs because of what tesla has accomplished to begin with. Tesla doesn't pay large salaries to any of its employees, all of its resources go towards the ultimate goal of producing a compelling mass market EV. I think that is a great message to many consumers.

Not sure where you live, but I thought that this would be much more an issue for us than it is. I purchased a model S in June. You just don't realize how much you don't drive more than 300 mi in a day. We took it on a trip from Orange County up to Sacramento and back, with zero issues at the charging stations. It was really easy. The night charging is super easy, literally takes 5 seconds when park my car to plug it in.

My other car is a Caddy CTSv with 556 hp and the Tesla blows it away off the line. It's the smoothest ride and best handling I've ever driven. It feels like what I imagine a UFO would feel like to drive. The thing is a dream to drive.

But what really sold us was the Touch screen control panel. So intuitive. Feels like an ipad.

I've already decided that I'm getting the model x when my lease is up on the Caddy. I have no issues not having a gas car. In the rare instance that I'm going long distance in an area without supercgargers, I can just rent a car.

Not really. Many families have two cars. Very seldom will they need to use both vehicles for a long trip. I don't see any reason why a 2 car household wouldn't want a tesla and a gas powered vehicle assuming they want to spend that kind of money on a car in the first place.

The design and performance of the Model S is unparalleled by ANY vehicle currently in that pricing segment, gas and electric. You seem to think the battery is the only component that makes Tesla different and will determine success, but the entire business model has the potential to change the auto industry including; the absence of dealerships, free fuel for life, internet/cabin technology integration, and i cant wait to see what they can do with self driving vehicles.

Demand is huge for the Model S and battery supply constrained. They utilize 20% of their floor space in the factory they purchased. I think Elon does a tremendous job managing expectations and being a step ahead of the analysts. Like i said earlier this is a long term play for me until the mass market vehicle gets introduced and if they get to that point this company could be giant, with meager profits, just like Amazon :P

Rick

Unparalleled? How do you figure? The Mercedes SLS Electric has something like 700 hp, goes 0-60 in 3.7 seconds and has a pretty big range. There are EV's selling for under $30k now. Additionally all the other luxury brands such as BMW, Infiniti, Lexus, etc have high quality EV's with large ranges coming to market soon. Tesla is good at creating hype, and their vehicle is undoubtedly pretty cool, but it's certainly not unparalleled.

EDIT: Just realized you included gas with that too, in which case I can rifle off a bunch of cars that are better than tesla's $100k average selling price for the model S.

Other MIT Tech articles on Tesla as well as the one cited above demonstrate Musk is deeply involved in battery development beyond that of bulk purchaser. I agree that mechanically EV's are simpler yet Tesla's generational lead in EV's would seem to be in their software. I know of no other car which continues to improve after purchase.
So I want the car personally. But what price for a buy and hold does the stock make sense? Will its "story" it's "personality" continue as it's driving wheel or will it settle into its fundamentals?

Yes, he's done significant engineering and design work around safety and getting extra juice out of them. I posted the patent list earlier - it gives you a good idea. Still, there is nothing revolutionary about any of it. It's just standard stuff you'd do if designing a battery pack for a car. It's freshman physics and basic engineering.

lol WTF no.
And you won't after the system has its first hack and the cars are remotely messed with. Updates to the core control system "over the air", not to mention monitoring of every single thing you do, is completely nuts. As a new tech it's a cool feature, but as a mainstream consumer car it's running headlong into a wall - with a battery fire as the denouement.
Me too. If Tesla drops another $6 today I'll have made enough off the puts to buy a Model S.

LOL...ain't it the truth...thanks for your view

This is actually analogous to AMZN too. People, myself included, said for a long time it's an impossibility for AMZN to justify its valuations given the size of the book market.

As book sales growth stalled, Bezos expanded AMZN vertically into logistics, both on the IT and physical shipping end. Now it's a giant selling services.

TSLA could end up the same, becoming a giant in battery technology, supercharging station (someone needs to have the expertise to build them), and just sell Tesla cars, essentially, as demonstration products.

Giving free charges to Tesla owners and charging for other EVs and could make this a major money-maker.

Or just making EVs popular enough that Exxon's and Hess' of the world would buy/lease "super charger kits" from Tesla.

How many of those true comparables received 99/100 rating? How many units have those models shipped? And non Hybrid full EV

EDIT just looked at mercedes sls ev, gmab pls

This could have some consequences.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/2...CFRONTPAGE%7Cs

Lol at ChipRick adding conditions to his statement until only tesla qualifies.

Also, lol at people asking how to "safely" bet against Tesla earlier. If you like a short, then just man up and short it next time. If you get squeezed, double down

It amazes me that people STILL bet against Elon Musk. The Tesla Model S has absolutely no peers. 300 miles of range, 0-60 in under 4 seconds, and free fuel for life that is entirely renewable.

Even if the current vehicle doesn't impress, a rational person should be able to see how quickly the battery world is ramping up. The 2017 Model S will be even sicker by 20 percent because battery tech will have advanced that much.

If Elon Musk says he's coming out with a $35,000 sedan in a few years I'm going to go ahead and believe him. The guy resupplies the space station for god's sake.

Elon Musk has lost a huge chunk of his net worth in the last week from both solar city and tesla. Betting against him is very profitable if you correctly believed the company wasnt worth $190/share. Elon Musk is not his companies.

You don't know cars very well if the SLS EV doesn't give you a hardon.

SLS EV btw is more of proof of concept than anything else. It's Mercedes telling rest of the world, TSLA diehards included, "we can do this, and do this better."

LOL......Musk is up about 812% on his TSLA stock so I think he's doing OK. He's been saying for a month that the stock is way overheated.

Haters just can't give it up no matter the evidence.

As for the SLS, wake me up when I can buy one for less than $500k. If you want a 700+HP machine and want to pay $500k I'm sure Musk could accommodate you.