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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

09-23-2020 , 09:13 PM
Anything besides powerpoints shown at battery day?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
09-23-2020 , 09:18 PM
Could not help myself and bought 2 - 396 09/25 Calls for 600 each, oh well, they had a good run....
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09-23-2020 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcrew
Anything besides powerpoints shown at battery day?
They showed videos of their equipment and factories. There was a video of their new proprietary aluminum alloy frames being built and many other things. I was disappointed that the news sites put a negative spin on everything.

If you want to watch it faster go to the Chrome Web Store and download the free Chrome extension named "Video Speed Controller". It lets you watch videos at 3x, 4x speed etc.

What I wish they would realize and work toward as priority #1 is that even though many people care about the environment, far more people want the self-driving feature than the sustainable electric vehicle. Having to charge it is a big negative for most people. They could license the software and sell autonomous combustion engine cars like hotcakes. If everyone cared so much about the environment there would be a lot more Toyota Prius's on the roads. People want the safety and freedom of a self-driving car. Then they want flying cars.
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09-23-2020 , 11:00 PM
Did I miss the part where they talked about D & O insurance or did they not mention it?
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09-26-2020 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bakshi
What I wish they would realize and work toward as priority #1 is that even though many people care about the environment, far more people want the self-driving feature than the sustainable electric vehicle. Having to charge it is a big negative for most people. They could license the software and sell autonomous combustion engine cars like hotcakes. If everyone cared so much about the environment there would be a lot more Toyota Prius's on the roads. People want the safety and freedom of a self-driving car. Then they want flying cars.
They are not working towards it because it is not possible. Self-driving will not exist as a feature on any Tesla produced in the next 10 years.
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09-28-2020 , 06:42 AM
Another average Tesla day, some of the news:

Tesla to acquire stake in LG CHEM:
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tec...19_296818.html

Model 2 Model 2 secured:


Elon sets small goals to avoid high expectations:


Tesla building a Lithium refinery in Texas:
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/me...d-spodumene-2/

Tesla bull being conservative:
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cry...la-and-bitcoin
Quote:
Palihapitiya has been vocal about Tesla becoming a $1-trillion company and sees cars as only the first wave of growth.

“In my opinion, [Tesla] now is on a death march to being the largest company in the world. It will be on the scale of Apple, probably larger than Amazon,” he said.
Buying more land in Texas:


Meh, cmon do something
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09-28-2020 , 09:25 AM
Hey heltok, i fully admit i was wrong about stock price, but how do you keep falling for the same lies over and over?
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09-28-2020 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
Hey heltok, i fully admit i was wrong about stock price, but how do you keep falling for the same lies over and over?
Not sure which lies you are referring to, I was just reporting the news, not discussing their validity. But if I am falling for lies, which I most likely am(like most humans are), here is a good podcast of why:

Save yourself some time and skip the first 11min
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09-30-2020 , 11:51 AM
I am estimating >140k deliveries for Q3. Who is taking under?
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09-30-2020 , 03:25 PM
bought some 10/9 exp calls
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09-30-2020 , 10:09 PM
Price cut in china
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09-30-2020 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
I am estimating >140k deliveries for Q3. Who is taking under?
I'll take the under for lols, but I have no conviction. In fact, I'm like xkf having some calls into deliveries following the same analysis that saw a dip after battery day and a rip into deliveries
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10-01-2020 , 09:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
I'm like xkf having some calls into deliveries
Sold 2/3rds up 50% to free roll on the rest
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10-01-2020 , 12:13 PM
every quarter the tesla IR guy releases "consensus" delivery estimates that they almost always beat. he posted 137k i think, so i'm gonna guess they post 141k.

bought some 445/450 spreads expiring tomorrow in case they post deliveries today after close or tomorrow morning
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10-01-2020 , 03:08 PM
also bought a few crash puts for tomorrow just in case
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10-02-2020 , 08:18 AM
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/t...ction-delgiver

Total 145,036 Production, 139,300 deliveries.
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10-02-2020 , 10:02 AM
The under takes it by 700 BOOSH!

Jk, I'm down today on my Tesla play
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10-02-2020 , 10:12 AM
BREAKING: $450b car company investors care about a few cars delivered or not.

lol, this is so stupid. they have production capacity for 170.000+ and claim to be production constraint. everything more than a few thousand below 170.000+ is a joke.

imagine if the real car companies did this stupid dance every quarter. but then again, those are real car companies and not stock promotion schemes.

Last edited by BooLoo; 10-02-2020 at 10:17 AM.
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10-02-2020 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
The under takes it by 700 BOOSH!

Jk, I'm down today on my Tesla play
Technically it could still be 140k as they said numbers could be 0.5% conservative. But yeah, I was slight optimistic with deliveries but also underestimated production slightly. So I guess I am ok with my estimate. I am gonna estimate Q4 early, I estimate >180k deliveries in Q4.

IIRC I estimated 2020 at 550k, I think it will be less, mostly due to Covid-19 shutdown of factories. 2021 IIRC I estimated at 1M, I think 1M is still a good estimate. Probably gonna increase my 2022 estimate from 1.5M to 2M.
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10-02-2020 , 11:18 AM
yeah i'm down too, wanted that 400 or 470. wonder what we'd be at without the trump news? gonna hold calls for next week
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10-02-2020 , 11:46 AM
I see a lot of it as market sympathy. Stock was up ~20% in a week, deliveries weren't a blowout, get a little shake out and resume the rise next week

I'm assuming we don't have a hugely red October though. Tesla will generally go with the broader market
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-02-2020 , 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heltok
Technically it could still be 140k as they said numbers could be 0.5% conservative. But yeah, I was slight optimistic with deliveries but also underestimated production slightly. So I guess I am ok with my estimate. I am gonna estimate Q4 early, I estimate >180k deliveries in Q4.

IIRC I estimated 2020 at 550k, I think it will be less, mostly due to Covid-19 shutdown of factories. 2021 IIRC I estimated at 1M, I think 1M is still a good estimate. Probably gonna increase my 2022 estimate from 1.5M to 2M.
How do you get to 1mil next year if they are only at 140 per quarter???
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10-03-2020 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by theviolator
How do you get to 1mil next year if they are only at 140 per quarter???
They did produce 145 this quarter.

I assume 180 next quarter thanks to Shanghai starting 3 shifts and increase in Y production in Freemont and minor Y production in Shanghai. That is 720k/year. I assume Y Shanghai will ramp a lot during next year, I would guess 150k Model Y from Shanghai next year. The rest I assume will come from Berlin, Austin and slightly increase 3 in Shanghai and Freemont.

What is your figure for 2021?
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10-07-2020 , 01:36 PM
+20 billion in market cap off email that says, sure would be exciting if we break 500k production this year!

Didn't they project 500k deliveries this year? Why would that be exciting news?
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10-07-2020 , 03:11 PM
Sold a 375/370 vertical spread today for 1.55 oct 30

You can still get it for 1.4 if you want. Prolly not as attractive as there is more risk.
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