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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

03-12-2019 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I'm going with the "no one will underwrite" theory. It's not trivial to get billions in capital from the market - in fact it's rare. To give you an idea (source here):

- Tencent had to underwrite their big 2017 raise
- Five of the biggest Wall Street banks had to underwrite their 2016 raise

The retail market just can't sustain billions in equity raises and you need large underwriters. The evidence that the banks think Musk is toxic is pretty clear:

- A $750 million SpaceX raise was dumped by Goldman - near unheard of as far as I understand - and they ended up with far less
- The big banks refuse to give personal loans against his SpaceX shares. Which is bizarre for someone worth $20 billion on paper, collateralized at 1:4 on his other loans. What the hell are they afraid of that they won't accept free money?
- Musk misappropriated money from SpaceX rather than spend his own, despite his billion dollars in loans over the years.
- Musk recently had to mortgage his LA homes, all five of them, for a mere $61 million, to get more funds.

Is it rare because companies can't find underwriters or because companies of this size don't need to raise equity?

What bank wouldn't love to be involved in a multi-billion dollar equity deal for Tesla if there is demand? So it might be splitting hairs but seems to me like it comes down to what price and amount of shares the market will bear.

I think they are going to try soon if they can.
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03-12-2019 , 06:04 PM
Both. Putting out the begging bowl for billions means you don't have a viable business model. And there's a lot of reputational and financial risks in underwriting for banks.

I figure Musk needs at least $100 billion in inflowing cash (over and above free cash flow) from somewhere by 2025 if his planned growth trajectory is to continue. The car business is uniquely crazy that way.

Quote:
What bank wouldn't love to be involved in a multi-billion dollar equity deal for Tesla if there is demand?
Indeed and what bank wouldn't love to loan money to someone worth $20 billion on paper with the provided security being 4:1 shares of said company? Yet they're refusing to do it for even small amounts. Why? None of this makes any sense.
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03-12-2019 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin
Customary. Don't know why SEC even had to ask permission.
I realize that, was going to post the lol tesla reply, it’s like a 1L student wrote it
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03-14-2019 , 06:53 PM
Kimbal steps down from CMG board and Elon and kimbal removes from part of BOD lists on Tesla website.....
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03-15-2019 , 12:34 AM
What a clown show:



When it rolled out, I thought it was another M3 at first. But I guess if you call your sedan a SUV, you can disrupt the SUV market!
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03-15-2019 , 12:34 AM
Elon seemed more distracted and stuttered more than usual in the model y livestream, at least compared to the model 3 livestream. Anyone else see it?

I don't want to say he was inebriated, but...
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03-15-2019 , 05:29 AM
At least before when they put the carrot in front of the donkey, it was a fresh carrot. Now they're recycling carrots. This isn't going to end well.
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03-15-2019 , 05:53 AM
This is what literally every car manufacturer in the world does. Are you ****ing stupid? This is the best thing they could do. You are wrong literally every single time when it comes to business decisions.
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03-15-2019 , 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Spurious
This is what literally every car manufacturer in the world does. Are you ****ing stupid?
lol?
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This is the best thing they could do.
Really? The "best" thing? Is that why the stock is tanking this morning?

The best thing was to create an aspirational more differentiated car, not a model called "I Can't Believe It's Not A Model 3!".



You can do that while sharing the manufacturing for the entire base and most components.

Given that they're out of cash and most of their talent has quit, I do applaud this move. I predict that Musk will try to move up Y manufacturing on the same lines as Model 3 dies prematurely. It's the move of a desperate, failing cuck (which is why the stock is selling on the announcement), but it's a much better business decision than say, closing all retail stores, canceling all bonuses then reopening them days later. Or dropping the price of your top model $50K overnight.
Quote:
You are wrong literally every single time when it comes to business decisions.
Well we already know this isn't true because I said that closing all retail locations was ******ed and a sign of cash panic. And Musk reversed that decision very quickly once the lower prices spurred orders. I was also right about mocking Musk's alien dreadnaught plan (the moron nearly destroyed his company trying to automate everything like a nerdy 10 year old because he can't reason and has no engineering sense). I have also been far more correct on autonomous driving progress than Elon Musk by leaps and bounds. So we know that I am a better businessman than your hero, for starters.

I bet you wouldn't be so upset had Musk knocked it out of the park rather than fizzled and died on stage.
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03-15-2019 , 07:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
This is what literally every car manufacturer in the world does. Are you ****ing stupid? This is the best thing they could do. You are wrong literally every single time when it comes to business decisions.
lol


The “it’s not a deposit it’s an order” crowd on twitter is a very special bunch
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03-15-2019 , 08:26 AM
The stock tanking is probably related to the fact that this was less novelty and just boring, but that doesn't make it a bad decision.
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03-15-2019 , 08:47 AM
lol clown show indeed. Cut the back off a M3 and make it look like an SUV...such innovation, wow.
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03-15-2019 , 11:14 AM
Why did you expect this to be an innovation? What did you expect? How much innovation can you include in a <$40k car. Do you know what other car companies are doing?
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03-15-2019 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
Why did you expect this to be an innovation? What did you expect? How much innovation can you include in a <$40k car. Do you know what other car companies are doing?
I'm not even sure what Tesla is doing.
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03-15-2019 , 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
The stock tanking is probably related to the fact that this was less novelty and just boring, but that doesn't make it a bad decision.
Stock goes up- nothing else matters. Stock goes down- stock price doesn't matter? So confused.
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03-15-2019 , 02:26 PM
Model Y is revealed and: They don't show the hatch (the most distinguishing element by far), they don't show the 3rd row (folded down for the test drives/shots), there are only 2 on stage and 1 is static (rumored to be a mockup), the VP of engineering quits just before the reveal, no reservations or orders are announced, Tesla asks $2,500 this time, no word on where it will be produced, overall design is a slightly stretched M3 from a company that goes out of its way to add some magic to whatever it sells, Elon effectively skips over talking about it at the reveal, stage lighting is designed to make it impossible to even see, production and availability are given as fuzzy future goals.

Trading wise it is getting very hard to see what could bring it back to the 300s.
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03-15-2019 , 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by case3
Model Y is revealed and: They don't show the hatch (the most distinguishing element by far), they don't show the 3rd row (folded down for the test drives/shots), there are only 2 on stage and 1 is static (rumored to be a mockup), the VP of engineering quits just before the reveal, no reservations or orders are announced, Tesla asks $2,500 this time, no word on where it will be produced, overall design is a slightly stretched M3 from a company that goes out of its way to add some magic to whatever it sells, Elon effectively skips over talking about it at the reveal, stage lighting is designed to make it impossible to even see, production and availability are given as fuzzy future goals.

Trading wise it is getting very hard to see what could bring it back to the 300s.
2B in deposits for the Model Y, courtesy of Curacao, Larry Ellison and whomever else Elon can beg from would jack the stock back up. Basically all in fraud.

I think Elon will do it, or at least try.
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03-15-2019 , 02:49 PM
I hadn't thought of that angle. Fake orders on the M3 are what pushed it into the 300's the first time, maybe he can try again. If he is as boxed in as recent actions make it seem, this is an idea worth keeping open.
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03-15-2019 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
2B in deposits for the Model Y, courtesy of Curacao, Larry Ellison and whomever else Elon can beg from would jack the stock back up. Basically all in fraud.

I think Elon will do it, or at least try.
So 800,000 deposits? Who would believe that given the tepid response to the unveiling?

He is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Model 3 had people lining up to make deposits. Y excitement is obviously lower plus people wised up to fact that deposits are meaningless and hard to get refunded. So he can't go higher than 500,000. But how to maintain the story with a smaller number?
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03-15-2019 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
What a clown show:



When it rolled out, I thought it was another M3 at first. But I guess if you call your sedan a SUV, you can disrupt the SUV market!

https://youtu.be/HW_Rduet230

It's not the same
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03-15-2019 , 05:45 PM
Gene Rayburn first post on 2p2 in the Tesla thread quoting Vanilla Ice. Bankruptcy can't be far away now.
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03-15-2019 , 07:15 PM
If this makes it to sub 230-250 without a BK or any big news how likely is a meltdown? The Q margin call fantasies seemed stretched in the past, but now it doesn't look like any institutions will be able to step in and buy. Once a fall blows through retail clowns (most of whom will be spooked off of a 'buy the dip plan' sub $250) and algos, etc, could there really just be a freefall? Seems odd now for it to stop in the middle: either it stays way up here and the future is endless growth, or Tesla is over.
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03-15-2019 , 07:32 PM
Institutions are dumping on the retail baggies here. 3 to 1 buy to sell ratio on Fidelity on a day the stock is down 5%. Just amazing stuff.
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03-15-2019 , 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Gene Rayburn first post on 2p2 in the Tesla thread quoting Vanilla Ice. Bankruptcy can't be far away now.
I've been waiting these past 7 years for my chance...
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03-16-2019 , 06:45 AM
Pump looks empty now but Elon will come up with something.
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