WB isn't someone whose views on global macroeconomics I care too much about. I'm not saying he doesn't know more about it than I do, but he's very upfront about the game he plays (value investing + general business) having very little to do with predicting where the economy is going next.

Ray Dalio is a different story.

people need to stop taking the views stated by business leaders as gospel with regards to trade.

- they are short term focused. they want to hit thier numbers increase thier wealth now. they arent willing to take a hit now for a better outcome later.
- they are organization focused. they hope to maximise thier companies value...not the fortunes of the US as a whole, or the distribution of wealth.

so even buffet has preferences and bias and it should be obvious the status quo is serving him well. Most business leaders (not necessarily buffet) are just short term thinking pussys hoping to hit their numbers next quarter and get thier bonus.

Trade deficit itself is not a problem. The problem is US companies would have made way more money if there were genuine free trade, narrowing the trade deficit.

It is not only the US that are being fleeced.

https://japan-forward.com/japans-tra...has-copied-it/

The US (who is that actually in this context?) is not being fleeced.
But people who view everything as a zero sum game believe they should benefit from everything.

China has been openly robbing western and Japanese companies of their intellectual property and fighting them with unfair means for decades and continue to do so today.

Meanwhile, we have AMD openly betraying the country via a legal workaround to export technology they otherwise couldn't.

Last time I checked a lot of those companies went there voluntarily and are very happy with the results.
AMD doesn't owe allegiance to any country, let alone the US. It belongs to its shareholders.

well as long as amd does it im satisfied to put a sizable chunk of my complete bullsht trading account into escrow with my fat uncle. why? because amd

Trump building a powerful coalition against China that includes extreme disincentives for other countries to make free trade agreements with China:

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi...-talks-experts
Cucks: Trump is going it alone vs China, horrible strategy he's a dummy

Reality: Trump is succeeding in creating the most powerful anti-China coalition ever, with binding legal disincentives for dealing with China.

This is a prolonged and deliberate war with China (pushing back against their prolonged and deliberate and highly destructive/anti-free-trade war against the economies of the West), and Trump is playing it well. I still think there'll be short to medium term pain before Chinese capitulation.

Lol, or another quote from that article.

Either way, the idea that Trump is building "the most powerful anti-China coalition ever" is hilarious. There's like a billion different ways that Trump could actually have made progress against China without pissing off the rest of the world and pushing them to diversify their trade away from the US.

And of courses "binding legal disincentives" for dealing with China is absurd. The clause gives them the right to do something they already had a right to do. What a win! Edit: To be clear, if this agreement hadn't been signed and Canada signed some major free trade agreement with China, Trump almost certainly would have pulled out of NAFTA already. And of course this was already enough of a disincentive to keep Canada from signing such agreement with China. The US influences Canadian trade through the reality of being a massive next-door market not through some sort of silly clause that is only there to feed the Trump base.

Um, of course the "officials" are going to reject the notion that it's letting the US interfere with their trade policy. They wouldn't admit to something that's highly politically unpopular (the US having control over Canada's sovereign interests) on an agreement they signed and want to pass parliament.

I mean, what the **** do you smoke bro? How is this not obvious to you????? You've disqualified yourself from any commentary on political affairs with that dumb take that the comments of "trade officials" with the negotiating party means anything.

The analysis of impartial parties which I quoted says all that needs to be said. Every non-government experts says exactly what I say.
Generally, agreements like these are seen as binding and stable except where they contain clauses that legitimize opt-outs, which can be used to pressure outcomes, This is like 101 of how international treaties and agreements work.

As the multiple expert quoted have said, this give the US substantial leverage over Canadian trade negotiations.

But keep saying black is white and disagreeing with all the experts because you hate Trump. That's a sane position to take, bro.

Lol, your article also has an ‘expert’ agree with the officials.

By the way, this is like perfect Trumpism. You can’t actually say HOW it changes anything. But it’s definitely amazing and game changing. The experts say so!

Canada should have aligned with the US on China from the get go and we would have gotten a much better deal with the US.

I think the next trade negotiation with china should be how to wind down trade to almost zero while minimizing the disruption. there are lots of countries that can fulfill the role played by china, and they wont play the games china does.

No, the fourth expert agrees with me if you read what he says (see below).

No, this is just you being a first class dickhead and not understanding how diplomacy and subtle pressure works. I'll let the expert who you think agrees with the ass-covering trade officials explain it to you:

I explained the exact same thing to you above but you can't read plain text. This is basic diplomacy and it's how international agreements work. To explain it in other terms, I assume you understand the concept of a "chilling effect" with copyright. This is the same thing but in relation to Canada. There will be a chilling effect on trade agreements with China that would displease the US, because it gives Trump an excuse and political cover to disrupt an otherwise stable trade agreement if they don't do what he wants with China.

This is in fact the perfect anti-Trumpism. A complete failure to understand how the world works and do the political calculus, even when told to you by four impartial experts (who despite being Canadian are wrong in your mind because Trump)

Trump needed no excuse to do that.

Seriously, let’s imagine Canada arrived at a free trade agreement with China right now. You think Trump isn’t going to threaten to walk away from NAFTA (and follow through if necessary) because he doesn’t have that clause?


Edit: oh, and feel free to answer or not. I’ll probably leave it here because I know how productive it is having political discussions with Trumpkins that spend more energy on name calling than understanding how their dear leader is wrong. And I’m pretty sure you’re the guy that claimed trump was one of the greatest minds of our generation... so... yeah.

You're not arguing with Dear Leader, you're arguing with four Canadian foreign affairs experts talking about their own country, who are probably not fans of Trump.

Of course he would. That has nothing to do with the value of the clause once the treaty is in place. Generally, agreements aren't walked away from lightly, and the breaking party is politically/diplomatically to blame. This clause enables the US to place the blame on Canada should they pursue a free trade agreement with China, and gives the US political clout according to the norms of international relations. It's greatest value is the behind-the-scenes threats if they start negotiating with China.

You're a dickhead on this topic bro, who's talking your insane anti-Trump blather like a knee-jerk reacting clown (Trump did it so it can't be good!!!!!!!) in defiance of four experts and the most basic knowledge of how foreign policy and agreements work.

There's nothing more to be said. I could be wrong on lots of stuff but you're making a fool of yourself here, it's black and white that you're the idiot in this conversation on this topic.

its moot. China is looking for more investment access and Canada already shot down the Aecon deal which put the nix on trade discussions.

I cant imagine how Canada would come out ahead anyway...you give china access and they only give you perceived access. Its hopeless no use trading with them

Yeah, anyone doing "free trade" with a huge cheater is damaging their own economy for no benefit.

there really needs to be a baseline tarriff across the board...15% charged on all countries unless a trade agreement is in place.

That allows wiggle room for "preferred trading" with nations that are cooperative. So the tarriff would stay in place for countries that are antagonists, human rights abusers, trade abusers, security risks etc etc.

The 15% allows room to negotiate quotas with friendly nations to eliminate tariffs. ITs clear to me that quotas are needed to preserve national interest and national security. you cant rely heavily on other countries for a core resource. For instance steel....it makes sense that 30-50% be made in the US and 75% be made in North America...because if there is ever conflict with china or russia...they arent sending you steel and they can make shipping from allies perilous.

germany having a pipeline with russia is really dumb. Count on them to turn off the taps when you need it most, they already have used that leverage on other countries.

When war recedes far enough into the past, people forget. The same kind of insane clown hubris existed in the 20s - the Golden Age of Man was upon us as the entire (left wing) world was groupthinked into believing that something as horrible as the First World War couldn't happen again - and so they treated adversaries far too lightly and let them grow.

China now is not unlike Germany in 1933. Racist, nationalist, dictatorial control, very very deep justified grudges against neighbors, unenlightened, militarizing, openly seeking to expand their borders for countries over which they have historical claims of sovereignty.

And we're entering an age when total central control of a population is possible thanks to computers and cameras, and when high speed robotic and hypersonic warfare is about to become possible, negating all prior forms of warfare include nuclear weapons.

Building up the economy and military of the only dangerous adversary in the entire world who is capable of overtaking the US in warmaking and robotics and military output is the dumbest possible thing you could do. It is insane, on par with allowing Germany's military rise in the 30s. Especially when they could have easily been forced to reform and open up under Bush and Obama. The world was near guaranteed to be fine had that not been done - now there's >30% chance of World War 3 in the next 40 years.

That's the backdrop of what Trump and every non-loser (rare in international politics) is thinking with this trade war. It runs deeper than getting "ripped off" on trade and having all our IP stolen, although that's certainly part of it. It's also why China won't capitulate unless forced - their aim is long term strategic nationalist and militaristic, turning China into the greatest power, including by deliberately harming competing economies. China is unique in this; no other country is adversarial in its aims here, not even Russia.

IMO this isn't going to be resolved quickly and there'll be necessary pain along the way, including in the markets. In the long run it'll be very good for the US. I guess the next step depends on the midterms.

And China plans its purchases accordingly. they are only buying food and resources from north america...They are making a heavy push in electric cars...to be a leader sure but they arent exporting them...they just want to energy independent - in the event of war it will make them stronger.

And to those that think war is unlikely...it probably is...but what is more likely are stretches on brinkmanship where the brink is determined by each side reflecting on how much its going to hurt. So a prepared country can push the brink further to accomplish goals

Yeah, China has no intention of doing anything that goes against its long term plan. They will lie, cheat, steal, do whatever it takes. They're completely unlike any other major state, who actually abide by agreements in good faith. They're basically sociopaths who can only be forced to deviate from the plan.

Switzerland might be worse than China on trade...other stuff obv not. Variable tax rates in each canton , favoring certain industries that export and they hammer local industries with taxes. restaurants / hotels etc that. ITs brilliant if you can get away with it.

id put 50% income tax on utilities / banks / telecom / airlines / hospitality and zero sales tax on thier product. there is no substitute they have to be produced locally

then put 10% income tax (or zero) but 20% sales tax on any category that is subject to trade competition.

that alone clobbers on trade but we cant do it without an uproar...but if you have an extremely nationalistic population like Switzerland germany china Quebec in Canada then you can do these sorts of things

What was the logic on Bush/Obama lying down to China? Was there any benefit aside from the own goal of promoting consumption of cheap Chinese exports?

for instance where i live...we could add a tax on cell phones and eliminate the tax on the connectivity. consumer could come out better off especially if they buy a cheaper phone, but it clobbers on trade because the phone is imported and the service is produced locally, and any money saved will get spent on something that has to have more local content than a phone.