I was rounding in your favor.

The fair odds are the no-edge odds (change of getting 5x your money in 3 months) which is less than 10%. Unless i have a truly enormous edge 3:1 is an excellent payoff.

How can a poster be so adamant that ToothSayer is a ******, but also not be willing to bet against him? That makes no sense to me.

If you're not broke and like making money, then you snap call all +EV bets. That's what I'd expect from a poster in a forum full of poker players in a subforum full of traders in a thread where the opportunity presents itself.

Lots of reasons. Toothsayer is clearly not a '******' hes just nowhere near as smart as he thinks he is. He talks a lot of trash, so it's only natural he gets a lot of flak for it, and a lot of people wanting to see results. Hes clearly not smart enough to have learned two lessons about life though

1) most peoples natural reaction to big talkers is incredulity and skepticism and the way to convince skeptics is not by upping the ante w/r talking more
2) the person convinced against their will, in the future holds their opinion still

As much as I disagree with aggo about bitcoin I totally agree with him over TS. Biggest blowhard knowitall I've ever encountered

I think TS likes to argue and is a good ninja googler that's about the height of his demonstrated skillset. I wouldn't bet either because if I win well big deal and I just gave him credibility by getting involved and if he wins it will overinflate his already overinflated sense of self and make discourse on this forum even more unbearable. A bet is a lose lose.

This is pretty rich. Even more so given the amount of time you spend getting involved with him in debates.

Hi, this is meaningless.

As a contributor to the forum I personally don’t possess any obligation to engage in betting to prove the veracity of my position. Because I am not the poster who has for years imputed the success of myself as a trader or analyst onto others as a tool to belittle others valid opinions.

Whether or not I’m broke, worth 1k, worth 1m, again it doesn’t matter at all.

This is all obvious and basic rhetoric.

As I've said before, one of my favorite things it to tell people the stone cold truth but to do in such a way that their sensibilities are offended enough that they refuse to accept it. I guess I find psychological barriers to truth fascinating. I love spite, it's one of the dumbest human emotions and completely maladaptive, and it's fun to trigger it.

Apart from that, what ******s think is of interest. I like to explore it to see the ways in which I think like a ****** mirrored in others, and to understand why the market believes what it does and how it will react to news. You don't get down to what people really think and why without pushing and prodding them. You can't trade Tesla well for example unless you deeply understand the extraordinary stupidity and gullibility of the (not intellectually stupid, often) people who like Musk.

Apart from that, pissed off people are just fun. Anger is a energetic form of cognitive dissonance.
Yeah, you have this backwards. I never for example mentioned my 2013 bitcoin recommendations until some obsessed weirdo clown who I pissed off and was losing the argument (invictus) started lying about them out of frustration as a last ditch ad-hominem attack. Then the clowns kept lying. Aggo above brought it up again. If people want to stop lying I'll never mention my trades. It's pretty simple.

Regardless, come back at the end of the year. We're 3rd quarter and the score is 0/0 and you're acting like the game is over. If I can't make 500% in a year after saying it's 95% then I certainly deserve to eat ****.

I will never understand people who relentlessly complain about a problem that has a simple, easy solution. Scroll past or put on ignore. Why waste time and effort on something not worth your time and effort?

I will also never understand a person not taking a +EV bet out of fear you might, what, inflate his ego? Give him credibility? wtf are you even talking about? That makes no sense to me.

I've had TS on ignore for the better part of my history at 2+2. He still hijacks threads and derails decent conversation because hes a troll, and that's what trolls do.

There's lots of reasons why someone wouldn't take a +ve ev bet. Your black and white reasoning is silly. For example would you rather have a 100% chance at 50 million dollars or a 10% chance at 2billion. Clearly the latter is more +ev but you'd be crazy if you take that chance over a guaranteed 50 million.

So you admit you use unsubstantiated rhetoric to get a rise out of people, since you rarely post sound reasoning or evidence for any of your truth claims.

In other words you're a knowitall troll. Itd be totally acceptable to me if you knew you were a bull****ter. Then you'd be just a troll.There are lots of those. But you think you're speaking absolute truth in your posts, which makes you not only dumb but also unproductive to the conversation. +2 for a ban.



I think a lot of people would be happy if you ****ed right off and didnt mention anything again. I know I would. There are ways to make a point and argue that doesnt belittle others and/or give off the air of superiority nearly every one of your posts does. The true sign of intelligence is brevity and willingness to understand someone else's viewpoint. You have neither.

The funny thing is that we probably share more points of view than you realize. This isnt a disagreement on content.

You're really invoking the marginal utility curve over a $1000 bet?

This says it much better than I did.

Yes. Ev isnt everything

Bro, I regularly post detailed and solid reasoning and evidence (see: the Tesla thread for example).
I'll gladly do a BFI survivor vs you. You're exactly what you say I am (see your dumb blather in the Tesla thread which ended up with you being mocked by regulars).

Unlike you I regularly post detailed reasoning and solid trade ideas. You're just a complete dickhead who says nothing at all worthwhile. Spurious for example disagrees with me but at least his posts are interesting and make me do a double take. ASAP17 hates me like you do but has a mind of his own which is valuable for seeing different ways of looking at things. You on the other hand could be replaced by a text generator and nothing would change. There's no mind there, just a warm body and a gym bro level of analysis.
So, BFI survivor vote off with BFI regulars? I'd be taking out the trash if you were banned from this forum, your posts and comments are comical (see: you holding forth on methane and energy in the Tesla thread, not realizing that EVs are certain to overtake ICE or that they will soon be made cheaper, two uncontroversial widely known facts) and you post no trades or trade ideas that I can see.
If you don't like the way I argue, then ignore me. Lots of people do like both my style and my content.
Bro, you don't even have a point of view. You're a dumbass who doesn't understand anything, not even yourself. Thus your posts are a waste of space. Ironically, it's you who's derailed multiple threads in BFI recently. Now you're derailing this one with your belief you understand reality (and me, and what the majority in BFI want) and that your point is so important you need to hold forth on it.

I'm just gonna ignore you. You're really dumb and there's not a single spark of intelligence or awareness there, so it's a waste of time. GL bro.

Curious attempt to rally support from his enemies. Perhaps I hit a nerve.

It's no skin. My entire existence isn't dependent upon my ability to troll and denigrate others on an internet forum.

I've tried. Threads end up being you insulting other people and them responding defensively to you instead of a productive conversation taking place. For example in the TA thread where you just posit nonstop insults to people and no one has an opportunity to talk about why TA might be a good thing; they're too busy defending themselves from your insults to talk about the topic. Similar things have happened in pretty much every thread you've ever been in.

I wonder if you had your own forum how many people would visit you for a chat? I suspect not too many. Most people here want to learn from others with experience, not hear how stupid they are from some basement dwelling, results fabricating internet troll.

Pretty much all he ever posts is dumb blather.

This is great. You think I'm full of **** but won't enter an escrowed binding bet; you claim you and the forum would want me gone but won't do a vote on which of us should go.

Most dumbasses are cowards at their core (practical intelligence and understanding is developed from adversity of one form or another and putting something on the line behind what you believe).
The TA thread is actually the perfect example. I post a detailed case on why TA is extremely suspect that even the OP found informative and convincing. Here's your contribution:
A bunch of us talk daily in a private chat and post trade ideas. I've had heaps of PMs asking me where else I post so people can read more. Again, I'm more than willing to put this a vote of BFI regulars on who gets banned. You want me gone, have spent pages trying to tell me suck and that I should leave, believe no one wants to read what I write, yet you won't back up these views? You're a coward, bro.

Losers like you are why I don't post as many trades as I used to on 2p2. Why would I share my knowledge and winning trades with such a loser as you? I throw a few now and then but not the best stuff.
How I am fabricating the results of real time posted trade recommendations? Are you stupid or something?

As for the rest, I travel the world living in some of the most beautiful and interesting places while I trade. I'm currently 3 stories up in a lovely apartment in the old town of a magnificent part of Europe. I'll be here another week then I'm going back to the French Riviera. If you'd like to place and escrow a bet that I can prove to the satisfaction of a third party (a mod?) that I'm actually a world traveler and not a basement dweller, feel free to step out from behind your cowardice and put some money where your slurs are.

I got a good bet. You take a trusted third party to your portfolio and show him your long term ROI (lets say 10 years minimum) and if it's less than the average yearly market return you get permabanned. Anyone who talks as much **** as you do should be crushing the market. If you are talking **** you should be banned and if not your portfolio will prove it.

What do you say, BRO

Lol at you guys doubting TS. Stop wasting your time here man , see that Gasparino SCOOP?

Your posting here and in the Tesla thread would indicate otherwise.

myrna has the benefit of being in private chat where we discuss trades.
The below is not a bet. A bet involves you putting up something of value to back up something you believe. You slurred me in three ways, was offered a bet on each one (including one without money - the forum ban-off since you want me gone AND believe that others do too), and you backed down like the coward you are.
I have 5 years of shorter term trading and 6 years of being in the markets.

And I'd be happy to, but it would involve giving a login to my trading account and personal details to a third party I don't know.

I could show them via Teamviewer or make a video of me logging in, but anything other than them logging in themselves is trivially gameable via tricks like Greasemonkey (you rewrite values on the page as the page loads), so it proves nothing.

There's no way to verify results other than real time trades where you post the buy and sell and can look up the price at the posted time of each. Kind of the point of this bet. It's not proof, but it is fun. Beyond that I suggest quite a few short term trades a year and have an excellent track record (see the 2018 trading thread for many examples with I think 100% track record over 8+ trades).

OK, so stop whining. What are you, 12? You think he's a troll. Cool. Rule #1 on trolls is never engage them. So stop ****ing engaging him and those of us who don't think he's a troll will decipher his information and insight as we see fit.

lol get the **** outta here with this corny ****. I'm not the one using black and white reasoning, I'm making an observation of posters who speak about others in absolutes, but won't back it up by putting their money where their mouth is. You don't wanna take a bet, cool. But that doesn't help your or others' cause. DUCY?

People make no ****ing sense, adamant someone is a troll, but will keep on engaging them. Over and over. I can't tell if they're morons or masochists.

The laying 3:1 TS cant make 1k to 6k in 3 months is pretty great bet.


I think TS is clearly intelligent and likely v profitable trader, and id consider taking that bet.

yea i think the bet is reasonable. I would also consider taking that bet. Sure there will still be some volatility in november especially but even then he did miss alot of chances to finish this bet already. I just hope that this doesn't end up an earnings play gamble and we see a nice play.

TS is the Phil Hellmuth of trading. Except he also has aspergers

Thanks, man: Pretty amazing you're showing your face around here after having the most egg on your on your face of anyone on this forum after you believed Musk's $420 lies after I explained why his "funding secured" was a fraud.

Ouch, bro. Stock is down $110 since then. How much are you down not listening to someone far smarter than yourself?

How dumb are you that you didn't see the truth about Musk even when it was laid out in detail for you? Not only didn't see the truth, but tripled down like an impotent tard?
I love how post like some 15 year old mom's basement loser with the "shyt all over your comments". Unable to make a logical argument as to why I'm wrong about the $420 being fraud, yet you "believe" in your (actually) Aspie cultdaddy and get high on your daydreaming about me being wrong (oops - I was right). Hilarious stuff man. You might just be the BFI loser of the year.