Tooth v. Brian completely unofficial and illegal prop bet - Page 7

You can't get x:1 on any specific event. But you can hop from one event to the next.

Here's a fun one coming up in about a week:

Virtual Currencies: The Oversight Role of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

https://www.banking.senate.gov/publi...2-584E0F3B9D39

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03-04-2018 , 10:08 PM

#153

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Any update on this?

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03-05-2018 , 12:34 AM

#154

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

Any update on this?

Yes! I am happy to report that he has made exactly zero qualifying trades so far this year.

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03-05-2018 , 01:34 AM

#155

TheGodson

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 3,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

Yes! I am happy to report that he has made exactly zero qualifying trades so far this year.

Don't get too excited. He still has 9 months to go right? I think you'll win, but it appears he is waiting for a really good spot. I guess we'll find out if Tooth can find it in time.

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03-05-2018 , 01:39 AM

#156

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,553

he is obviously going to wait for the imbalance on 12/31 and buy calls/puts on the new monday spy's to catch that 30 bagger lotto

Quote

03-05-2018 , 01:42 AM

#157

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGodson

Don't get too excited. He still has 9 months to go right? I think you'll win, but it appears he is waiting for a really good spot. I guess we'll find out if Tooth can find it in time.

That is his stated strategy. I'm somewhat depending on him being young and confused by trading environments that he hasn't experienced yet.

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03-05-2018 , 08:07 AM

#158

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

In my normal trading I've taken a number of good spots with good probability multibaggers (it's been a great trading year), but I'm waiting for something that's very high probability. I want to do this in one trade with little risk.

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06-14-2018 , 02:53 AM

#159

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

I wonder what the theta is on this bet.

Quote

06-19-2018 , 08:06 PM

#160

BrookTrout

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,808

Damn your bump.

Mod needs to change the title when the trades happen.

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06-19-2018 , 08:35 PM

#161

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Can you name a few upcoming events in advance where we can get 6:1 payouts at anywhere near 6:1, reliably? I can't think of any but I don't really go looking for them.

Quote:

You know you want it.

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06-19-2018 , 11:30 PM

#162

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

So if Toothsayer doesn't make any trades, our bets are all pushes, right? Asking for a friend.

Quote

06-19-2018 , 11:32 PM

#163

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

And lest anyone misinterpret that, I am totally kidding. I fully intend to payout if Tooth doesn't make any trades. But I still have complete confidence in the Tooth!

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06-20-2018 , 12:04 AM

#164

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

So if Toothsayer doesn't make any trades, our bets are all pushes, right? Asking for a friend.

Obviously, no.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

And lest anyone misinterpret that, I am totally kidding. I fully intend to payout if Tooth doesn't make any trades. But I still have complete confidence in the Tooth!

Good luck.

Quote

09-11-2018 , 02:55 PM

#165

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

Don't be afraid to fail Tooth! You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

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09-11-2018 , 03:02 PM

#166

Malachii

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,072

#powerful

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09-11-2018 , 08:04 PM

#167

coon74

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 10,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

So if Toothsayer doesn't make any trades, our bets are all pushes, right? Asking for a friend.

TS is compelled to trade this year by the sunk cost effect (or, in poker terms, because he's 'committed to the pot').

He has a chance to win $6500 ($5K from the trade + Brian's $1K bet + his own $500 back) while risking the $1000 in the trading account (his initial $500 bet is sunk) and just needs to find a trading strategy where the probability of increasing the bankroll by 6 times is at least 1/7.5 (~13.33%) - it doesn't even have to be a normally profitable strategy per se.

Quote

09-12-2018 , 02:18 PM

#168

parttimepro

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,281

Surprised TS didn't buy puts on TSLA right after Elon's "funding secured" tweet. If you're looking for great opportunities... they don't get any better than that.

Quote

09-12-2018 , 07:01 PM

#169

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,669

Quote:

Originally Posted by parttimepro

Surprised TS didn't buy puts on TSLA right after Elon's "funding secured" tweet. If you're looking for great opportunities... they don't get any better than that.

Did u buy puts?

Quote

09-12-2018 , 08:19 PM

#170

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Can TS buy out of the bet at a loss?

Quote

09-13-2018 , 05:32 AM

#171

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Why on Earth would I do that? When the NYT interview with Elon came out and we all piled into puts in private chat, I told Brian I wasn't taking that as part of the bet because it was too easy/free money/almost cheating. That was a 5 bagger.

If Brian wants to buy out at a loss I might accept $900 or $950 of his $1000 for an early buyout, but other than that the bet will be concluded before 31st December

Quote

09-13-2018 , 09:01 AM

#172

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

As expected, we are not going to settle. I'd accept $450 and you posting in the manner of Crocadile Dundee for your next 200 posts.

Quote

09-13-2018 , 09:46 AM

#173

somigosaden

adept

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,069

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

If Brian wants to buy out at a loss I might accept $900 or $950 of his $1000 for an early buyout, but other than that the bet will be concluded before 31st December

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

As expected, we are not going to settle. I'd accept $450 and you posting in the manner of Crocadile Dundee for your next 200 posts.

Quote

09-13-2018 , 10:44 AM

#174

loololollo

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 653

@toothslayer, thoughts on Tilray?

Quote

09-13-2018 , 11:27 AM

#175

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

loolollo,
I understand precisely zero about the weed stocks or the weed business so I don't trade it. Having kept half an eye on it I think there are plenty of amazing trade opportunities though if you understand how the bulls and bears think in that stock and how the news cycle plays out.

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