Until I see your portfolio, I'm near certain I am a more successful trader than you are because you don't seem to understand it is not possible to beat the market consistently for 500% a year. It's really really difficult and time consuming to beat the market long term at all. I know you probably aren't old enough to have experienced a bear market yet, but you will one day, and then maybe you'll have one of those moments of enlightenment and turn into a poster with thoughtful brevity instead of a pedantic blowhard.


Depends on your contributions. You seem to think the cap for 500% gains is 150k or whatever earlier number you pulled out of your ass.


No, because this is not a long term bet. You're conflating whatever this years result is with your long term potential. It's an isolated event in one of the greatest bull markets in history. My ****ing grandmother could make money in this market.

If you wanna bet on 500% long term gains I will literally bet you any amount.


People win the lottery too. The number of people that can reliably return 500% a year is zero. That's not the same thing as the number of people that can return 500% in one year. I hope you see the difference now. You seem to be implying in your posts that this one year result is indicative of your long-term alpha. As people have written earlier, no one can be that stupid. It's a fun bet, decent. Have at it.

P.S.- Bold, italics, and underline are used for emphasis. I know it's hard for an expressionless autist to comprehend that, but do try. End derail. No more posting for me.

Dumbass can't understand the concept of the EV of a bet. On a poker site. Amazing. Perhaps that's why you think:
This is just comical man, most of the people reading this thread now realize that another of my detractors is a rolled gold moron:
Brian, can you explain to this genius how 2:1 on me making 500% in a year is a very +EV bet even if I'm a decent trader, let alone one with little or no edge? No matter what his grandmother can do? No matter if it's a bull market (doubly if I'm doing it with puts?)

Jesus. The level of stupid dripping out of your post is mind blowing. Are there people on 2p2 since 2010 who really can't grasp that this is a very +EV bet for people betting against me?

ill bet Brian's side

I have no clue who you are but I don't think an escrow is necessary for such a small bet.

What odds are people giving DoOrDoNot's gam gam to turn 1,000 into 5,000?

I think you overestimate your level of credibility around here almost as much as your trading competence

I'll take her over Tooth at 2:1

Do,

But that's a very different thing than being able to identify and execute one or two small trades a year that return 500%.

Yes I know that. TS has said multiple times, however, that he can do this reliably, implying he (and others) can do it long term. He didn't even correct me when I pointed out he implied that. He even doubled down when I said this bet, whether or not he wins it, doesn't say anything at all about his long term investing capability. If I'm wrong about his belief on this, I stand corrected.

I don't think its out of the realm of possibility for very savvy and attentive traders to be able to spot a 3-5x opportunity once or twice a year on a smallish sum of money.

Bets on when Tooth makes his first trade?

Malachii quote to book

I win if tooth doesn’t hit 6k you win if he does

My 300 to your 100

Tooth fwiw think you’re a super sharp dude but I also like money

Yes. Set the line.

I'll bet 200 to someones 125 that the first trade happens after 4/20/18

My only stipulation is that it has to actually be a legitimate attempt at the bet, no tacky 5$ trade to **** with a time line.

I don't think TS would do that tbh, but gotta throw that out there.

Are trading commissions part of this?

Are you emulating the rules of a true 1k account or is everything fair game (ie. all option strategies)?

Writing this surely took longer than simply answering the question. Gotta add to those 14k ****posts, I suppose

Booked, no clue who you are but if you have 18k posts I suppose I’ll trust you. PM me if you want to exchange contact info. And sorry Disko, I’m good with $100 and he responded first.

PM sent

Definitely true if we're talking very small cap businesses where a lot of them are duds and someone with specific insight to the structure of the business was to recognize the underlying value.

A lot less likely if we're talking about businesses with a market cap > 1b that're studied by large numbers of hedge fund managers as is the case for this bet.

If there was a safe and easy way to bet, i'd bet against for a large sum at 2:1 and i'm not a betting man.

Np gl

Neither of the idiots in the title know anything about economics. I won't even address them, they are so ignorant. I am ashamed this community allow this idiocy.

This is such an unclever troll you almost have to be serious to be this stupid.

Of course I can do this long term. My claim is that I can print 5x my money per year on any amount less than $100K. It diminishes after that due to slippage and the juicier opportunities drying up, but the returns are still fabulous. Over 100%/year on $5 million can be done with high probability by a skilled trader, for example.

I never said this could done on $200 million, and no one except you even thought I was claiming this.

A highly talented trader should be able to turn $1000 into $20 million or so in about 5 years, assuming he starts off with skills. I suppose it's about 7 years if you include the time required to get talented.

Who wants to post an over/under line on the amount of $$ that chases Tooth's trades after he posts them

About 350?

Tooth,

Noose is requesting your presence over in the btc thread.

Disko, I'll put $100 on Tooth at the same odds. Will escrow if you feel it's necessary and will do crypto for escrow if you want.