What precisely am I "full of ****" about?
This is clearly a false statement. The results of the bet shift the line a little one way or another. Why are my detractors always ******s?
I haven't been trading long enough to amass that much money.

If you think I have no edge, this is a hugely +EV bet for you. Why not take it? Do you hate +EV bets?

A lot. You're what's known to the layman as a "bull****ter."

Right, an isolated short term result in a bull market says a ton about your long term investing skill--->the only ****** here is you.

You claim you can make 500% in a year. With an initial investment of $1000 at 500% a year, it would only take you 10 years to reach a billion. For $10k, it'd only take 7.2 years.

It's not hugely ev, because a. it's a bull market right now and b. this isolated event whether you win or lose means nothing (like literally nothing, it doesn't even skew the line a little bit) about your long term investing competence, which is what the bet is really about.

You can prove me wrong in one move: show me your long term results. Should be quite tempting for someone so concerned with being right all the time....unless of course you can't.

No one is stupid enough to think if you can have a high chance of making 500 % in a year on a small amount like, say, 1k, that you can also do that in the same way with $200 million.

Calm down, we're just betting on his 2018 results. This isn't meant to be statistical proof of his long term alpha or anything

Exactly. It is a fun bet.

I'd have not accepted the bet if I thought I were a ringer to win. I don't kick toddlers. I think he has a reasonable chance to win (less than 1 in 3 obviously), but I won't be bothered if he wins.

I did consider that he might "win" by cheating somehow, but I'd consider my loss to be something akin to giving to a charity. If he feels the need to cheat to win, then we should feel sorry for him and I'm happy to be the first to compensate him for being stuck with who he is.

My judgment is that he won't cheat because he values his honor at least a tiny bit. If I'm wrong, it is only $1k

$1k might be big money if he's busto, living in his mom's basement from shorting Tesla and bitcoin!!

This will be fun either way. Glad you guys are doing it.


When are you going to start?

This is harder in a bull market...

I'd bet on tooth at 4:1

Do we get to see live trades? If not, what's the fun in that?

Yeah, this is why I asked.

Thats what someone who doesn't think this is doable would say

I don't think there have been any trades yet or they would have been posted.

He wouldn't need to have amassed anything close to a billion for his results to be compelling evidence of his abilities though.

Anyone want to bet on his net worth?

Sure, was just responding to this fallacious argument which you see a lot:

"You claim you can make 500% in a year. With an initial investment of $1000 at 500% a year, it would only take you 10 years to reach a billion. For $10k, it'd only take 7.2 years."

Scaling is a real thing. If it was just a point to say "why are you not rich if you can do this, even if you cannot scale with such a high winrate you should be extremely rich even if not a billionaire" then fine, but I have no idea how rich the guy is.

I'd bet on him for ****s and giggles at 3.5:1 if you want. Won't bet on his networth :P

"A lot" but you can't name a couple of things? Seems weird.

Look, this is hilarious...but even non-tards get this one wrong so I'l give you a pass.

Yes, winning this shifts the line substantially on whether what I claim is true (that there are 500%/year edges in the market and that I can pick them with 95% probability). How much in absolute terms depends on your priors, but in relative terms the move is very large. If one in ten people who make this claim and then make this bet are capable of doing it, it becomes quite close to even money, upon winning, that I am one those people. This is simple Bayes.

No, I claim I can turn $1000 into $6000 reliably, not that I can make 500%/year on any amount of money. They are two vastly different claims. You probably don't trade, but slippage on options starts to hurt a lot at mid 5 figures. At 6 you'll struggle getting filled for most things without large slipnpage. Some of the more profitable setups, like Tesla, will slip a lot at mid four figures. So if you can make 500%/year at $1000 with high probability but some risk of ruin, your return on half a million is probably only 150%/year or so with no risk of ruin.
I'll be trading mostly if not entirely puts, so this is in your favor!
The bolded is a hilariously false statement, unless you assume that the probability is zero that anyone can do this long term, which I think is an unfounded assumption that has to has wide confidence bars. Do you even Bayes, bro? Any probability >0 that someone can do this, a single successful demonstration shifts the line a large amount that the person who did it once is one of those people. Might seem counterintuitive in cuck math class, but much of probability is.

But regardless, any sane rational person snap calls the odds being offered here if you believe I have no edge over the market. Brian snap called and crowed about it, because he's rational and enjoys having a rational edge.

It seems my detractors are not only daft, but cowardly and hateful of +++EV situations.
It wouldn't prove anything. Screenshots are easily doctored. I can't think of any way to prove returns other than real time posted trades - which I'll be doing here.

Bet started two days ago with Brian and I agreeing on how this will be set up (post here, post in private chat, screenshot the completed trade entry/exit so Brian can look it up in historical options data).

This is the major one. However most of your posts are bull****. You ooze bull****. You are a pedantic, know-it-all pure bull****ter.

You don't need to do a bet to prove this. There are multiple 100s%+ edges per DAY.

If you could, you'd be a billionaire in a very short time which is why I asked to see your portfolio. I don't need to see the results of this bet, and I don't need to bet on it, because your claim is nonsense.


At least you understand this.

Lol of course you will. Great strategy you bull****ter.

Correct, the probability of someone making 500% a year long term is zero. The probability that you, personally, could do it if it could be done is ZERO.

Bull**** bull**** bull****. Good luck with the bet. I'll be watching from the sidelines.

Pro Tip: If you think a bet is dumb don't follow the action.

Less talk more trades.

I'll take Tooth at 3-1. My $100 against somebody that I consider reputable's $300.

I am fully aware that I am the sucker here. Act now, or forever hold your peace!

You seem a litlte butthurt bro. A lot of people don't agree with you. Why wouldn't you want to bet them? Seems weird.

You'd be a millionaire in a few years, not a billionaire. 5x5x5 = 125x. WITH risk of ruin. Without risk of ruin, maybe 50x.

So I'm taking horrible trades according to you, am a bull****ter, have zero skill, zero chance of having the edge I'm betting, but you don't want to bet? Are you a coward or a loser? I can't decide which. I mean, this is a gambling forum, and we all look for +EV edges, right? You're getting a great edge here according to your reasoning.

There are multiple people who can make 500%/year up to the millions, which is all that matters for most people here. It's not even that hard. That you think the number is zero is comical. I have to say I really appreciate the extreme butthurt you feel that you caps, underline, italicized, and double bolded (lol) the below:





That's too bad.

Less talk, more trades.

I'm going to do this in a handful of trades, probably 1 or 2. There aren't 500% edges every day. My big edge bankroll only sees 3-10 trades a year.

And it only started two days ago when Brian and I agreed on the account details.

Shhh, only trades now.

Trolly, let's bet. My $100 to your $300!

Are there people who've documented their claims and tracked their trades (not necessarily publicly but in a way that's verifiable) for 10+ years who've done this with any consistency? ie: where all years are up 500% +/-250%